Patriots Mailbag: Early Super Bowl LX thoughts

The New England Patriots are going back to the Super Bowl. With their 10-7 win over the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship, they'll represent the AFC against the NFC champion Seattle Seahawks.

With two weeks of build-up, there will be plenty of time to break down this matchup. Getting the week before the week started though, let's see what fans are looking ahead to in this week's Patriots Mailbag...

At initial glance without digging in too deep, this matchup feels similar to the Patriots' first three playoff games. They're going to need to continue to win at the line of scrimmage to keep pace with the Seahawks.

On offense, the Patriots need to do a better job of giving Drake Maye time to throw. The Broncos game showed a bit of a step forward from the games against the Chargers and Texans, but there's still more room for improvement.

Defensively, putting pressure on Sam Darnold will be paramount. Again the Patriots' front looked better against a very strong Broncos offensive line, but being able to get consistent pressure without needing the blitz will be crucial.

The biggest knock on the Seattle offense might be how mistake-prone they were this year. Their 28 giveaways ranked 31st in the NFL, and their nine multi-turnover games were the second-most in the NFL this year.

In that sense, the Patriots could have a bit of a margin for error. But, if they can be more careful with the football on offense like they were in the regular season, and opportunistic on defense like they've been during the playoffs, this could be a major area of advantage.

At the end of the day it's the Super Bowl, and they're not going to back their way into a win against a team as talented as the Seahawks. But, neither of these teams project as the kind of group that will play a 'perfect' game.

This might be the best one-on-one matchup in Super Bowl LX. The battle between fellow 2023 draft picks Christian Gonzalez and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be must-watch whenever both are on the field.

It would make sense for Gonzalez to shadow Smith-Njigba for most of the game, as they both primarily lineup on the outside. A finalist for Offensive Player of the Year who led the NFL with 1,793 yards this season, he's the kind of player who will get his against even the best cornerbacks. That being said, Gonzalez has a history of playing his best games against the biggest-name wide receivers, and the Patriots will need him to do that again in this one.

I think it could be a couple of things. First and foremost, the coach staff may rust Rhamondre Stevenson more at this point. Given how it became a ball control and field position game relatively early on, it would make sense if they were more comfortable with the ball in his hands. Henderson dealing with a shoulder injury during the week could have impacted that.

Stevenson's running style also is a better fit for what the conditions became. His ability to pick up hidden yardage when a play gets blown up to keep the team on schedule is key when trying to manage the clock and field position. Henderson's home run approach certainly has been a big boost to the Patriots this year, but those kinds of runs are tougher to get with poor footing and Stevenson's better field vision is a better tool for putting together smaller consecutive runs keeping down and distance manageable.

Plus, Stevenson is just the hotter hand right now. Henderson's big-play ability will keep him involved in the gameplan to some extent, but it wouldn't be surprising if the coaching staff keeps rolling with Stevenson. That being said Josh McDaniels has always done a great job of mixing up his running backs depending on the situation and matchup, and if there's something he thinks Henderson can exploit in Seattle's defense that Stevenson can't, history says he won't be shy in mixing that into the calls.

The weather has definitely hampered the Patriots' offense in recent weeks, leading to less overall production. But a big part of that too has been facing some of the best defenses in the league. The Patriots' offensive schedule (in terms of defenses faced) was tougher than the other way around, but these last three games have still represented a real step up in competition against the second (Texans), third (Broncos), and ninth (Chargers) scoring defenses in the league. In particular the pass rushes have been tough, with all three teams ranking in the top half of the league in sacks.

While the Patriots should (knock on wood) get a break from inclement weather in Santa Clara, the Seattle defense is a significant challenge. Once again it's a group that is led by a strong pass rush that ranked fourth in the NFL in pressure rate (38.9%) and tied for seventh in sacks (47). Against Denver the Patriots' offensive line took a step forward, which is encouraging. Another step forward against Seattle will be massive.

Without inclement weather, the Patriots' offense should be able to move the ball more in this game (pending the condition of Drake Maye's shoulder). For things to really click though, it's going to start with the offensive line playing better.

No. It would be disappointing to see the Patriots score in the teens again for sure, but with the job McDaniels has done with player development, creating this scheme around Drake Maye, and implementing quickly it with so many new players involved, it would be way, way too soon to even consider a change at offensive coordinator. It's still a young unit that has plenty of room for improvement over the next year or two, and a bad game against an elite opponent isn't cause for a change in direction.

Rashid Shaheed will be an X-Factor in this game in multiple phases. One of the best pickups of the trade deadline he's been dynamic for the Seahawks both as a receiver and returner. He's the kind of speed receiver that has given the Patriots trouble this year, and will test their kick coverage units too.

While receivers like Shaheed have been an issue at times for the Patriots this year, he personally wasn't when he faced them as a member of the Saints back in Week 6. Shaheed caught four passes on six targets for 28 yards in that game. However he mostly was working against Gonzalez. If Gonzalez draws JSN, that might put Shaheed up against Carlton Davis or Marcus Jones. He primarily lines up on the outside which could mean Davis, but Jones' speed is probably a better matchup.

In the kicking game, the Patriots may decide to kick touchbacks to remove him as a factor. That's been a strategy of theirs late this season, including against another strong returner in Marvin Mims last week. It'll be harder to avoid him in the punt game, so that's where the Patriots will need another big game from Brenden Schooler and a better performance from Bryce Baringer, who has this final game to enter his contract year on a high-note. If he doesn't, punter could become a position of discussion in the offseason.

As much as players and coaches talk about trying to keep their routine leading up to the Super Bowl, it's just hard to do with how much goes into the event. This year is no exception.

Instead, it's more about how the coaches manage what they're given to work with in the two weeks leading up to the game. Coaches who go 'regularly' like Bill Belichick and Andy Reid might have their plans, but for both Mike Vrabel and Mike Macdonald, it's their both time going to a Super Bowl at any point in their coaching careers (Vrabel obviously went as a player). So, it's uncharted territory on both sides.

In terms of those extra items on the calendar, the week leading up to the trip includes some added media responsibilities, but also can be used for extra rest.

On Tusdsay, Vrabel loosely laid out the plans for the week. "We have to get healthy. Staying the day, I think, helped us get a little bit of rest so we didn't get back late or try to sleep on a plane," Vrabel said. "We'll get moving around tomorrow. They'll lift, run and work out tomorrow, do some light football drills. The players will run those. I'll run the conditioning, things like that. And then we'll practice Thursday and Friday. Give them an opportunity to take a day off on Saturday, and then travel Sunday. Get some movement in, probably light movement back in the weight room before we travel."

"And then Monday will be like a bonus day, which we've used for coming off of a bye week to kind of do some drills and just some movement," Vrabel continued. "And then Tuesday off. Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, just try to keep it like a normal week."

Things normalize a bit with practices Wednesday through Friday the week leading up to the game, but come with the added challenge of practicing on the road, something that is always an involved process from a logistical standpoint whether it's joint practices or the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl week and we're still getting draft questions? The brand is strong!

Honestly, it's kind of funny to think about what this week was like for those that closely follow the Patriots the last few years, locked in on the NFL Draft showcase games. They've been a major event on the calendar the last two years in particular as the team has worked to rebuild. Now, many will likely be playing catch-up after the Super Bowl. (Not the team though, with Vrabel telling reporters on Tuesday the scouting staff was in Dallas for the Shrine Bowl before heading to Mobile for the Senior Bowl as the rest of the team gets ready for the Super Bowl).

If we are going to briefly look ahead like we have the last two years, positions of need for the Patriots with strong groups at the Senior Bowl include (in no particular order) edge rushers, linebackers, offensive linemen, and tight ends. Some players to watch...

EDGE:

-Romello Height, Texas Tech
-Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State
-T.J. Parker, Clemson
-Gabe Jacas, Illinois

LINEBACKER:

-Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech
-Kyle Louis, Pitt

OFFENSIVE LINE:

-RT/OG Gennings Dunker, Iowa
-RT Max Iheanachor, Arizona State

TIGHT END:

-Tanner Koziol, Houston
-John Michael Gyllenborg, Wyoming