Barth’s 5 Things: Patriots return to playoff house of horrors with Super Bowl bid on the line

The New England Patriots are one game away from returning to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2018. To get there though they'll have to do something the organization has never done in its 65-year existence - win a playoff game in Denver.

This year's AFC Championship has the Patriots visiting the Denver Broncos, after the two teams spent most of the season going back-and-forth in the two spots atop the AFC standings (both teams started 1-2, then won 13 of their last 14 regular season games). In the end, a common opponents tiebreaker is the reason this game is being played in Denver, not New England.

That means the Patriots will play this game where they are 0-4 all-time in the playoffs, including 0-2 in the AFC Championship Game. Those games occurred in the 1986, 2005, 2013, and 2015 seasons, with the last two being AFC title games.

However, this is a different Patriots team - one that has been excellent on the road this year. They're just the third Patriots team to ever go 8-0 on the road, joining the 2007 and 2016 teams. Now though they'll face one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL, between the altitude, weather, and an intense crowd. The Broncos are 7-3 at home in the playoffs since Empower Field at Mile High Stadium opened in 2001, including 2-1 in the AFC Championship (their only loss was to the Steelers in 2006).

"We played in a lot of different environments," head coach Mike Vrabel said this week when asked about his team's success on the road. "You've got to take care of the football. You're going to have to try to find a way to win in critical situations at the end of the half, at the end of the game."

"We try to preach it through the entire offseason and being able to establish an identity that travels. Overcoming mistakes that happen in the game, which there always are. I think that you have to be resilient," Vrabel continued. "So, there's a lot of things that we try to practice, knowing that we're going to have to play half of our games on the road."

Beyond being tough on the road and handling the Denver crowd, what else will be key factors in deciding this game? Let's take a closer look in an AFC Championship edition of '5 Things'...

The biggest storyline going into this game in terms of the matchup is the Broncos' quarterback situation. With Bo Nix suffering a fractured ankle late in the AFC Championship Game, former Patriots quarterback Jarrett Stidham is expected to get the start.

Stidham is as much of an unknown as you're going to find starting at quarterback at this point on the NFL calendar. He's started just four games in his career, with the most recent coming late in the 2023 regular season. Come this Sunday it will be 749 days since Stidham last threw a pass in a regular season NFL game - the longest-such streak for a quarterback starting a playoff game in NFL history according to Brian Hines of Pats Pulpit.

His most recent two starts in 2023 were for the Broncos and head coach Sean Payton, but all the Patriots have to go off of for him in this current system beyond the preseason. Of course there's some deeper knowledge of his individual game, mainly from Josh McDaniels who coached him both in New England after the Patriots drafted him in 2019, and with the Las Vegas Raiders.

As far as how Patriots players view facing Stidham, there were mixed reviews this week.

“He’s still a good quarterback,” cornerback Christian Gonzalez said on Wednesday.” He can make a lot of throws. We’ve seen what he’s done when he’s been in games. He’s in the NFL for a reason.”

“I’m not too familiar. I haven’t played him too many times,” edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson added. “But just watching the film on him and seeing how he was during the preseason games, I think he can make any throw he wants, obviously with a great pocket. He’s got great mechanics and great release time."

However, fellow defensive lineman Milton Williams mixed in a little more of a reality check.

“Nothing. I ain’t going to lie. Nothing,” Williams said when asked what he knows about Stidham. “We’re going to watch some tape on him and figure out what he likes to do. They didn’t like him over Bo, so...”

While the Broncos won't have time to reinvent their entire offense around Stidham in just one week, it still won't look exactly the same as when Nix was running it. The biggest chance will likely revolve around Nix's ability to use his legs both on designed runs, and to move around behind the line of scrimmage extending plays as a passer. However Denver's offensive line - one of the best in the NFL this season allowing just a 27.7% pressure rate in the regular season, should give Stidham more time in a conventional pocket.

In particular, left tackle Garet Bolles - an All-Pro - and right tackle Mike McGlinchey will be huge. They'll be a strong test for a Patriots' pass rush that has surged in the playoffs but done so against weaker offensive lines. This could be another game for Zak Kuhr to lean on the blitz, and give those rushers help up front.

The best way the Patriots can take advantage of the Broncos being on their backup quarterback is to force them into obvious drop back passing situations. That means stopping the run on early downs to keep them behind the sticks.

Ever since the return of Milton Williams and Robert Spillane (and Khyiris Tonga last week), the Patriots' run defense has been much better. In the five games without Williams (which Spillane missed the majority of also) the Patriots allowed and even 5.0 yards per carry, tied for the second-most in the NFL during that span. Yet in the playoffs they've allowed just 3.1 yards per carry, the second-fewest in the league.

Just like when it comes to rushing the passer though, this time the test for the Patriots' front will be a lot tougher. Not only has Denver's offensive line been one of the best in the pass game this year, but the run game as well. Broncos running backs are getting an average of 1.66 yards before contact hits year, the fourth-most in the NFL. They're also getting stuffed just 15.6% of the time, which ranks in the top half of the league.

There should be some help for that group too. The interior of Denver's offensive line has been banged up lately, but left guard Ben Powers is back after missing significant time with a biceps injury. Additionally, starting center Luke Wattenberg returned to practice this week after missing time from a shoulder injury. Right guard Quinn Meinerz has played all season and is an All-Pro.

Behind that line the Broncos' run game has had mixed success. They were one of the best running teams in football over the first 10 games of the season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry which ranked seventh in the league. That was with J.K. Dobbins handling most of the workload.

However, Dobbins suffered a Lisfranc injury in his foot in early November. Denver mainly leaned on RJ Harvey in his absence with Jaleel McLaughlin rotating in as well. For the rest of the regular season the Broncos' rushing average dropped to an even 4.0 yards per carry, 21st in the NFL. They also struggled to run the ball last week against a weak Buffalo run defense, with just 70 yards on 22 carries, with 41 on 10 from the running backs.

Dobbins' injury was supposed to be season-ending, but in a surprise development he returned to practice this week as a limited participant on Wednesday and Thursday, and can now be activated off IR. If he plays, it could add a much-needed dynamic back to the Broncos' rushing attack - assuming he's fully healthy. If he is activated, seeing how dynamic he looks early in the game could be a key for Patriots in-game defensive adjustments.

As good as the Broncos are upfront offensively, they're just as good up front on defense. In particular, this pass rush recorded 68 sacks this regular season, the fifth-most by a team in a single season since the merger. That came with an eye-popping 40.7% pressure rate.

The Broncos' rush is spread out. Their two edge rushers in Defensive Player of the Year candidate Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper led the team with 14 and 8.0 sacks on the year respectively, but they created as much havoc up the middle as well. Defensive tackle Zach Allen compiled 59 pressures this year according to Next Gen Stats, the second most among all defensive tackles.

While the Broncos can attack from wherever they want, look for them to really test the all-rookie left side of the Patriots' offensive line. Will Campbell and Jared Wilson have struggled in these playoffs, and will face a high-level rush for the third time in three weeks.

That gets to a bigger point. Not only do the Patriots need to keep Maye upright to throw, but within that the line and Maye have a bigger responsibility to protect the football. Fumbles in the pocket have been an issue throughout the playoffs, something that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels highlighted this week as being a team effort to clean up.

"Turnovers are - everybody always focuses on the one person that touched it last. A lot of times turnovers have more of a team complexion to it than what you know you may understand just with the naked eye," McDaniels explained. "Whether that be protection or somebody finishing a play or the route concept and what they saw together in terms of trying to throw the ball accurately and well. So there there's a lot of things that go into it. I'd say no matter what we want to talk about, we need to do it a little better than what we've done in a few games recently. Certainly, it's been a big thing when we've won this year. We've really tried to focus on making sure that we take care of the football. And, absolutely going to be paramount this week in Denver."

"Be mindful back there and just know that my job is to protect the football, and that's every game," Maye said this week on his part of protecting the football. "I think one of the biggest things with the guys up front is it's my job to have a timer in my head, and those guys have done a great job all year. So, I haven’t lost trust in those guys up front, and I know that we faced some pretty good edge rushers in the past couple weeks. I know we’ve got another good set of edge rushers coming up this week. So just know, have a feel for it and just protect football because that's my job."

This could be even more complicated given the fact that the Patriots will have to go off of a silent count in this game due to the crowd noise. It's something Vrabel said this week the team has worked on throughout the season "just to work on it so that we can have it when we need it" but it's another thing for players to think about, especially a young quarterback and young linemen in their first playoff game.

The Patriots had mixed results with the silent count in the regular season. In what were far and away their two toughest road crowd environments - Buffalo and Baltimore, they were called for two false starts against the Bills but none against the Ravens. Overall the Patriots had 12 road false starts this year, tied for the ninth-most in the NFL.

For as dominant a defense as they were in terms of keeping points off the board this year (18.3 per game, third in the NFL), they weren't a big takeaways defense in the regular season. Their 14 turnovers forced ranked 26th in the NFL, with their four fumble recoveries tying for the second-fewest. They were much better last week in the Divisional Round, as the Bills' nature with the football led to five takeaways including three lost fumbles. The Patriots cannot afford to have similar missteps to the Bills in this one.

Over the last two years, there's an argument to be made that the two best boundary cornerbacks in the NFL have been Derek Stingley Jr. of the Texans, and Patrick Surtain II of the Broncos (Patriots fans will also probably put Christian Gonzalez in that conversation, but Stingley and Surtain are certainly up there). After beating one of those corners last week, the Patriots get another test this week in Surtain.

Surtain, at 6-foot-2, 202 pounds, is the kind of lock down man cornerback that can take a wide receiver away and change how an offense has to operate. Among qualifying cornerbacks this year he was tied (with Stingley) for eighth in terms of most snaps per target, at 9.1.

When targeted Surtain allowed a 52.9% completion percentage, interception four passes with nine pass breakups. However, he did allow four touchdowns.

"He's targeted infrequently. He's physical. He has great length, can run, he's athletic. He's willing to tackle, he plays physical.," Vrabel said of Surtain this week. "You have to really be convicted when you're going to go and throw at him. You better be very convicted, there better be a good route and you better have the ball in a good spot or it's going to be a turnover or a PBU."

Last week the Patriots didn't go after Stingley often, targeting him just three times. However they had success when they did, drawing a pass interference penalty and, more notably, getting him over the top on the diving Kayshon Boutte touchdown that really opened up the game.

Expect something similar this week. If the Patriots do throw Surtain's way, they'll need to pick your spots. Beating him means finding one or two chunk plays or penalties, not peppering him with targets. That also means that other secondary passing options will need to step up to fill in for whoever Surtain is covering, especially tight ends - a position the Broncos have struggled to cover this year. Surtain does flip sides of the field, so the Broncos will be able to dictate that matchup.

“They possess a lot of challenges," Surtain said this week when asked about the Patriots' offense. "Obviously, Drake is a great quarterback. He’s got a lot of playmakers on the perimeter. They got a great run game, so we’ve got to find a way to eliminate the explosives on their side and find a way to contain them. Looking forward to the matchup.”

Unlike Stingley though, Surtain doesn't have as much help elsewhere in the secondary. Teams have had more success throwing on the Broncos' other cornerbacks this year, which brings us to the next point...

The Broncos' defense is one of the best units in the NFL across the board. They accomplish this by being aggressive, but that aggressiveness can also be their biggest weakness.

In particular, that manifests itself in penalties. The Broncos' defense was called for 53 penalties totaling 597 yards this year, both of which led the NFL in the regular season.

This shows at multiple levels of the defense. Up front the Broncos led the league in offsides calls with 10, and were tied for the second-most roughing the passer penalties with five. Bonitto was tied among individual players for the third-most offsides in the NFL with four, and defensive tackle Malcolm Roach was one of 10 players in the NFL this year to be called for multiple roughing the passer penalties.

In the secondary, the Broncos' 20 pass interference were the most in the NFL. Nearly half of those came from cornerback Riley Moss, who was called for a league-high eight. Surtain was also among the most-flagged cornerbacks in the league, with his five PI calls ranked for third. Surtain was also one of seven players in the league called for multiple illegal contact penalties, a category in which the Broncos as a team ranked second overall.

Last week the Broncos were better about the penalties with only one called on the defense. It was a potentially costly one though, with Cooper going offsides on a 3rd & 1 in the final minute of regulation on the drive that led to the Bills' game-tying field goal. Can Denver's defense keep that penalty number down for a second week in a row, or will the trend catch up to them against the Patriots?

The referee crew assigned to the AFC Championship Game is led by Alex Kemp, a 12-year NFL officiating veteran who had been a head referee for eight seasons. His crew was relatively middle of the pack this year, averaging 14.8 flags thrown per game which is just a tick under the league average.

Kemp's crew worked one Denver game this year, a 20-12 Broncos win over the Titans in the season-opener that saw Denver flagged six times. They worked two Patriots games - the Week 10 win over the Buccaneers and Week 17 win over the Jets. The Patriots were penalized five and two times respectively in those games.