This is Mike Vrabel’s biggest test of the season

If the Denver Broncos upset the now-favored New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, it's likely going to be because Sean Payton outcoached Mike Vrabel.

As the Patriots defense prepares for Broncos backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who is making his first career playoff start and first start of any kind since 2023, the pressure is largely on the shoulders of Vrabel. The Pats head coach is looking to avoid his team's first true letdown of the season, as they've at least shown up in every game, including their three losses. It's not going to be as easy as Stidham's presence atop the Broncos depth chart would suggest. There are a number of factors that could help the Broncos make this game more competitive than it seems, in part due to the mere fact that the game is in Denver. But "No naps" has been Vrabel's message, and this week is no different.

There's also pressure on Patriots quarterback Drake Maye to perform at his best, fresh off being named a finalist for both MVP and Offensive Player of the Year. But Maye is still just 23 years old, in just his second season, and playing his first-ever playoff road game in arguably the toughest road environment in the NFL. Excuses are for losers, but the excuses for Maye are easy to reach.

What would Vrabel's excuse be? He's been on this stage before. He's a defensive-minded coach with a healthy roster at all three levels, coming off two strong defensive performances against quarterbacks more talented and accomplished than Stidham. If the Patriots come up short in this game, the credit would likely pour in for Payton, while the blame would likely be aimed squarely at Vrabel.

He can handle it. Those shoulders are broad. But it's the truth of the matter. It's on Vrabel to make sure the Patriots are ready for this game, and all the factors that will play into it.

Asked about the thin Denver air, Vrabel acknowledged the challenge ahead of his team, but argued that traveling a day or two earlier wouldn't make a difference.

"Other than going out there last Thursday – which wouldn't have been an ideal situation considering we had to play [the following Sunday], but I think just physiologically you have to be at altitude for longer than a day or two or three. It takes time to do that," Vrabel said. "So, we'll do what we've always done. We'll travel, be in condition and be ready to play. That's kind of about what it is."

Despite any scientific accuracy on acclimating to Mile High, Vrabel and the Patriots should still have some kind of plan for the air. The fact you have to take it into account and spend time and resources on it is part of the reason why playing in Denver is so challenging.

Empower Field at Mile High is known for the noise as much as the air. The Patriots will have to employ a silent count to snap the ball. This could prove problematic for the offensive line, especially rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. Campbell, in particular, has struggled at times with false starts this season.

The Patriots went 8-0 on the road in the regular season, but the venues were more forgiving from a noise standpoint. Vrabel told reporters Wednesday that they've been practicing their silent count throughout the season, essentially to prepare them for this very moment.

"We've worked it when we weren't necessarily going on the road, just trying to figure that we would need to," Vrabel said. "We went through that stretch of home games, so I can – there were games that we were just focused on saying, 'Hey, let's just do it today just to work on it so that we can have it when we need it.' And we'll certainly need it this week."

Payton will do his best to make it as easy as possible for Stidham in the Broncos offense. The easiest thing to do is to give him wide-open receivers. The best way to get a guy wide-open is to fool the secondary.

The Patriots just had this happen last Sunday against the Texans, when tight end Dalton Schultz was left unaccounted for and breezed down the sideline for a 42-yard catch-and-run. That was more of a broken play than a scheme thing. But in Week 18 against the Dolphins, then-head coach Mike McDaniel schemed receiver Malik Washington open for QB Quinn Ewers, an easy pitch-and-catch touchdown in which rookie safety Craig Woodson found himself covering nobody. It may take more than just one of these plays for the Broncos to actually win, but the Pats have been susceptible in the back end against creative offensive coaches and quarterbacks with time to throw.

Payton knows how to find mismatches and exploit them. Look for him to utilize pre-snap motion and design route combos that put their coverages in conflict. It's going to be on Vrabel and defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr to be prepared to have everyone covered, and/or adjust as the game goes along. They've proven capable of it in the past.

Speaking of Campbell and his false starts, Woodson and his blown coverages ... Vrabel does have inexperienced players at some critical spots on the roster. But he didn't sound overly concerned when asked about preparing his group for uncharted territory, mainly because a lot of them have already done it -- in the first couple of rounds.

"They are two more games experienced in the playoffs than they were two weeks ago," Vrabel said. "So, I mean, just try to play well, prepare and enjoy it."

Vrabel's approach certainly sounds like he's treating this like just another game. There's no right or wrong answer, but this is Vrabel's. What matters more is whether the message is connecting, and Vrabel seems to have this team in the palm of his hand.

He'll need to have a firm grasp on them for this game, regardless of who's throwing the ball for the Broncos. Because if the Patriots falter in this spot, it's likely because Vrabel lost too much of his grip.