Patriots Mailbag: Heading to the AFC Championship Game

The New England Patriots are one win away from returning to the Super Bowl.

What seemed like a best-case scenario back in August is approaching reality. With a win over the Denver Broncos on Sunday, the Patriots would return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2018 season, marking their record 12th appearance in the NFL's championship game.

To get there though they'll need to play better than they did against the Texans, especially offensively. The turnover issues that had been dormant for most of the season have reemerged really the last two weeks. That seems to be where most people are focused, based on the questions in this week's Patriots Mailbag...

It's not just any one thing with Drake Maye right now, as is usually the case with this volume of turnovers. Over the last two games there have been times where Maye has held the ball too long or been too careless with it in the pocket or when running. Some have also been caused by his teammates more than him, with rushers getting to him to strip the ball while he's loading up to throw (we'll get to that more in a bit).

One thing I have noticed from Maye is over the last two weeks he has gone to an elongated release at times even when pressure is closing in. I get wanting to get the ball downfield but sometimes there's isn't time to do that, and if the QB is going to throw instead of taking the sack he may need to shorten his motion and look for a more shallow target (s/o Keagan Stiefel of NESN for first pointing this out last week).

It's a good question that is tough to nail down. Some of it is probably the fact that he played two of the better pass rush units (and defenses overall) in the league. It also could be nerves in his first ever playoff run. The fact he cleaned up very similar issues during the season means it's fair to expect him to do so again, but expecting him to do it and him actually doing it are two different things.

No, I think the Houston defense is on a level of its own. That being said, the Broncos' unit is probably closer to the Texans than the Chargers, to use the two defenses the Patriots have already seen as points of comparison.

Like the Texans and Chargers, the Broncos' defense is led by its front. Nik Bonitto leads the group with 14 sacks on the season but Jonathan Cooper, John Franklin-Myers, and Zach Allen are factors as well. The secondary isn't as deep as Houston's but cornerback Pat Surtain II is an All-Pro who can take a receiver away, and safety Talanoa Hufanga in a tone-setter in the middle of the field.

Speaking of that pass rush, the Patriots will need Will Campbell to be better this week. We discussed Campbell's issues at length on the latest Patriots Hub Podcast with David Andrews. The injury being to his right leg, which is his drive leg, is notable especially going up against star pass rushers. There's also an element of him being a rookie in his first ever playoff run.

It's fair to say Campbell should figure out some of these issues in the long term. Still, that doesn't help the Patriots down the stretch for this season. He'll need to be better, and/or the team do a better job of getting him and left guard Jared Wilson - who has also struggled - help. Something else Andrews pointed out is that Campbell can't start trying to do too much and play outside his skillset to compensate after a couple of rough games.

My guess would be it's a reflection of the way the unit struggled in December. To be clear, that's an explication for the takes, not a justification. As we discussed at the time, injuries to key players changed things. The group was always going to take a step back with players like Milton Williams, Robert Spillane, and Khyiris Tonga off the field. Now back at full strength, the unit looks like it did earlier in the season.

Has K'Lavon Chaisson earned a bigger long-term deal? It seems like it, especially with how he's playing in these playoffs. But whether or not the Patriots will give it to him is another story.

Chaisson is definitely a fit for the system and the culture in New England. At only 26 years old he still has some room to grow too. An extension feels realistic. Plus, depth is a need at the position and they'll likely need to add at least one rotational rusher even if they keep Chaisson.

However, the Patriots likely have at least two big deals coming to Maye and Christian Gonzalez. Given this coaching staff's history at developing defensive front players (both in New England and at previous stops), is this a spot where they feel like they could spend a little less find equal production? Basically, can they find the next K'Lavon Chaisson? It helps that it projects to be a good offseason for teams needing edge rushers.

For me personally, I'm on the fence. It definitely wouldn't be a bad move on its own, but there's the factor of how it would tie into the rest of their offseason.

We'll be doing draft talk soon enough. But combining free agency and the draft, I see the Patriots' biggest needs for this offseason as edge rusher, linebacker, and tight end, in that order.

As mentioned above, edge rusher is a need whether Chaisson returns or not. Harold Landry has had a rough season on the other side, and depth is a need as well.

At linebacker Robert Spillane has been solid, but a better coverage linebacker playing next to him would help the Patriots with covering tight ends, especially if they want to play more man coverage next year. This role could also be filled by a safety, if the Patriots are committed to playing more with three safeties on the field.

With how well the Patriots have played in heavy personnel, getting a more dynamic second tight end to put on the field with Hunter Henry could help the offense throw more out of traditional run sets. Additionally, adding a young tight end would ensure the Patriots have the 'next man up' in the pipeline behind the 31-year-old Henry.

Other positions that will be on the radar include left guard, right tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback.