Barth’s 5 Things: Patriots set for defense-driven Divisional showdown against the Texans

Down the stretch of the regular season, the Houston Texans were talked about as one of the least-desirable opponents for the New England Patriots in the playoff.

Now, that matchup is a reality. The teams will meet on Sunday in the Divisional Round, in what would end up being a defensive showdown. In the Wild Card round every team allowed at least 19 points except the Texans (6) and Patriots (3).

For the Texans' defense, that kind of performance was expected based on the way the unit has played all year. Houston ranks second in the NFL in points allowed, and while their pass rush has gotten much of the credit they have playmakers at all three levels.

"They have great talent, great scheme, they play hard and I respect how hard they play. They're not only talented, but they have a play demeanor that I can appreciate," head coach Mike Vrabel said of Houston's defense on Wednesday. "They play to the football. They chase the football and they get a lot of hats to the football. They create turnovers. They play physical."

Meanwhile, last week's game was more of a bounce-back effort for the Patriots' defense. After struggling down the stretch as key players missed time due to injury, they were nearly back at full strength and looked more like the unit they were at the beginning of the season.

How will each defense match up with the corresponding offense? What will be the other key matchups in this game? Let's get into it in this week's '5 Things'...

Let's start with the vaunted Texans pass rush. Anybody who has watched them this year has seen the way they can dictate a game. Not only can they pile up sacks, but just their ability to create pressure and get to the football can force bad throws and turnovers. Mobile quarterbacks are not immune - their three games with the most sacks this year came against Josh Allen (8 sacks), Justin Herbert (5), and Trevor Lawrence (5).

That rush is dominated by ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. Hunter, a 10-yard NFL veteran, led the team with 15 sacks this year. Anderson, the third overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, followed up with 12. Both get their hands on the football, with each recording three forced fumbles and three pass breakups. They ranked third and fourth in the NFL this year in total pressures with Anderson at 98 and Hunter at 89 per PFF.

"I don't think it's just one move. I think there's talent, length and effort. If they get blocked, they don't stay blocked long," Vrabel said of the duo this week. "Can power – different moves on the edge. So, they play hard against the run. It's not just if you run the ball that they're taking plays off. So, two really good bookends."

What makes the Texans' rush all the more impressive is, it's driven in large part by those two players. Sheldon Rankins and Denico Autry contribute some on the inside, but that's kind of it.

Still, having those two players dominant the way they do is part of what makes the Texans' defense so dangerous. They can generate that kind of pressure without help. As such, Houston had one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL. The Texans sent the blitz just 21% of the time in the regular season, which ranked 28th in the league.

While the rush gets a lot of attention, what really makes the Houston defense as dangerous as it is is the fact that there are playmakers at all three levels. This is one of the best secondaries in the league in terms of top-end talent. All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are the team's outside cornerbacks, and both ranked top 15 in the NFL in passer rating against this year. However the real playmaker is defensive back Jalen Pitre, who plays multiple roles as a box safety and slot cornerback. He has a nose for the football (four interceptions, 12 pass breakups in 2025) and plays well above his listed size of 5-foot-11, 198 pounds.

Pitre is one of two tone-setters at the second level for the Texans along with linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. Houston's leading tackler with 103 on the year, Al-Shaair is a physical player with a - to put it lightly - old school approach to the position. He constantly gets around the football playing to the whistle and maximizing contact as much as possible. As much as the Patriots want to live in the middle of the field - both running the ball and in the pass - he'll be a factor.

So, what can the Patriots do to counter this defensive unit? There are some basics - stay balanced in their play-calling to not allow the pass rushers to pin their ears back, don't get into bad down-and-distance situations (opponents averaged 7.3 yards to go on third down against the Texans, tied for seventh-longest in the NFL), and extend drives to get the play count up.

Schematically there are things the Patriots can do as well. The biggest one might be leaving extra blockers in on pass plays. That can be having running backs and/or tight ends stay in rather than go out in the route, or even leaning more on their six offensive lineman package. Last week the Patriots threw more out of what had mainly been a running package so far this season, and had success doing so. Plays out of jumbo included a 42-yard pass to Kayshon Boutte and the touchdown to Hunter Henry.

One other way the Patriots may be able to exploit the Texans is more of a trend-breaker - Drake Maye's legs. Man coverage teams like the Texans tend to be more susceptible to quarterback runs since defenders tend to have their backs to the quarterback more in coverage. The lack of a blitz also means fewer lanes are filled in the pass rush for the quarterback to step up in to.

The numbers bear that out. Houston has allowed the second-most yards per rush to quarterbacks this year at 7.1 (not including kneeldowns), which includes over 10 yards per rush on just scrambles. Granted they've also had the fewest rushing attempts against, but that may mean they're less prepared.

It's not as easy as just calling repeated quarterback runs. Maye will need to find space to run, especially when scrambling and getting way from the initial rushers.

Since his first start last year, the Patriots have been more hesitant to call designed runs for Maye and his scrambles have been limited at times compared to most mobile quarterbacks. Big picture that's not a bad thing, as it will help him stay healthy and on the field. In this spot though, against a good team in a playoff game, would be the time to break that trend to try and find a needed edge.

Stefon Diggs' first revenge game this year was a massive success. Going back to Buffalo, he caught 10 passes for 146 yards against the Bills.

His follow-up game against the Bills didn't include the same impact. Diggs caught three passes for 26 yards in that one. However, Buffalo's strategy had changed. Diggs was the focal point of the coverage, with the Bills taking him away and forcing Maye to go elsewhere with the football.

That strategy seems to have caught on. The Chargers did something similar last week, limiting Diggs to two catches for 16 yards. It wouldn't be surprising if the Texans do something similar on Sunday, and given their talent in the secondary they have the ability to execute this gameplan at a high level.

It's been a while since the Patriots had a wide receiver with the ability to truly dictate the opposing team's coverage. With more attention on Diggs, the rest of the pass-catchers should see more one-on-ones and less overall focus. Kayshon Boutte, Kyle Williams, DeMario Douglas, and Efton Chism will have more opportunities to create on their own, but with the Texans' talent at cornerback across the board it's easier said than done.

They're not Maye's only options though. There should be less help on the running backs and tight ends too. This could be another big game for both Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson in the passing game, and it will be interesting to see if Josh McDaniels does more to hunt mismatches, such as lining them up wide. Hunter Henry could also see a more high-volume role in this game, especially if the Patriots' line struggles to hold off the Texans' pass rush.

Of course, the extra attention doesn't mean Diggs should be written off either. Plenty of high-level receivers still manage to have productive games even with extra coverage on them. It's not easy, but it can be done. Does Diggs have another bigtime performance in him for this Patriots team on Sunday?

Since 2015, teams are 22-66 in the playoffs when losing the turnover battle. Last week the Patriots lost the turnover battle but won the game. That will be a lot harder to do against Houston this week.

The Texans were one of the best turnover teams in football on both sides of the ball in 2025. They finished the year +17, with 29 takeaways and only 12 giveaways. The high takeaway number isn't surprising given the nature of their defense, but one of their offense's best skills is ball security. In fact, of the 12 turnovers the team was tied for the fewest fumbles lost in the NFL with three (they only fumbled seven times total).

However, last week was a departure from that. Like the Patriots the Texans lost their turnover battle with three giveaways and two takeaways. That was mainly as quarterback C.J. Stroud and center Jake Andrews struggled - Stroud had an interception and lost two fumbles. There were five fumbles total, with multiple botched snaps.

All the more reason the turnover battle will be crucial in this game is the play of both defenses. Points will be at a premium, and allowing short fields could be incredibly costly. The Patriots were one of the better teams in the NFL at turning turnovers into points this year, scoring a touchdown on 41.2% of the drives starting off of fumbles or interceptions (10th in the NFL). Houston scored on just 20.8% of such drives, ranking 24th (although they've also converted 37.5% of such drives into field goal).

For all that has been made of the Texans' defense this week, how about the Texans' offense. It's a group that has been supported quite a bit by the defense, with 62 of its 295 points off turnovers. That 17.4 points per game average drops to 13.7 without turnovers.

It's a clean unit, but not super explosive. The Texans averaged 5.1 yards per play this year which ranked 23st in the NFL, and the lowest of all AFC playoff teams. They don't give the ball away but struggled to move it at times as well.

Part of the issue was the play of Stroud, who is still not back to the impressive level he was at as a rookie. While he completed a career-high 64.5% of his passes this year his 217.2 yards per game was a career-low.

In particular, Stroud struggled against pressure and the blitz. He was one of the worst qualifying quarterbacks in both categories this season, particularly under pressure when he competed just 48.6% of his passes with five touchdowns to six interceptions.

Making things harder for Stroud is the fact he could be without one of his best pass-catchers and best offensive linemen. Leading receiver Nico Collins hasn't practiced this week after entering concussion protocol, and right tackle Trent Brown was also out with an ankle injury.

With Collins out, Stroud will be without his most-targeted receiver this season. It's a pretty steep drop-off too, with Collins' 120 targets followed by 106 from tight end Dalton Schultz, then 68 from wideout Jayden Higgins. There's a chance Stroud is forced to throw to receivers he's not as comfortable with in this game.

The Patriots are in position to compound that issue too. With Christian Gonzalez moving through concussion protocol, that leaves him and Carlton Davis to take Higgins and Xavier Hutchinson on the outside. Marcus Jones projects to cover Christian Kirk in the slot. While tight ends have hurt the Patriots this year, everything funneling through Schultz, who did the team with 82 catches this year, could make the offense more one-dimensional.

Given all of that, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Patriots blitz Stroud early and often to try to make him uncomfortable and get him out of his rhythm. While the pass rush was slow to start before getting help from the blitz last week, this week that phase of the game could be in the gameplan from the start.