Patriots rookies will have their hands full against Texans pass-rush

The Patriots' divisional matchup against the Texans may very well come down to one key question: can they keep Drake Maye's jersey clean?

Some of that onus will also fall on Maye and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, but there's no question that the biggest challenge facing the Pats on Sunday is what to do about the Texans' terrifying defensive front. As a unit, their defense finished sixth in the regular season in lowest time to throw for opposing quarterbacks (2.78 seconds), which is the best mark of the remaining playoff teams, according to Next Gen Stats. They accomplished that despite having the league's fifth-lowest blitz rate (21.0%). That speaks to their ability to get after it with just four linemen without having to get too creative.

For the Texans pass-rush, the conversation begins and ends (pardon the slight pun) with their high-end individual talent on the edge. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, both All-Pros this season, are the only teammates to both finish in the top-10 in turnovers caused by pressure, with four each. This is an explosive and versatile duo that can create havoc and force giveaways by themselves, and they are the biggest test of the season for the Patriots offensive line, particularly their tackles.

Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel made note of the pair's ability to disrupt the offense in a variety of ways, and not just against the pass.

"I don't think it's just one move. I think there's talent, length, effort," Vrabel said. "If they get blocked, they don't stay blocked long. Can power different moves on the edge. So, they play hard against the run. It's not just if you run the ball that they're taking plays off. So, two really good bookends."

All eyes will be on rookie left tackle Will Campbell, the fourth overall pick in the 2025 draft, who is coming off a rough playoff debut in terms of his pass protection. He allowed a sack and five total pressures against the Chargers while mostly going against Khalil Mack, and it won't get much easier on Sunday. Based on alignment data at PFF, the rookie is likely to face a pair of veterans in Hunter and Derek Barnett. The 6-foot-5 Hunter can line up at either end, but has mostly lined up against left tackles. Barnett lines up almost exclusively on the right side, so Campbell has most certainly seen the film on him.

Despite Hunter's veteran savvy, it's Anderson that presents the biggest overall threat. A first team All-Pro, Anderson led all defensive linemen in "quick pressures" (pressure generated in three seconds or less) with 35, a mark that also finished third among all defenders across the league. His average "get-off," a measure of quickness off the snap, was 0.82 seconds, which among all D-linemen with at least 15 starts was fifth behind only Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, Aidan Hutchinson, and Leonard Floyd. Anderson is that kind of talent.

He can also line up on either side, but he's primarily lined up as a left end (535 snaps) versus the right side (183 snaps). So, blocking Anderson looks like more of a job for right tackle Morgan Moses.

The veteran right tackle may be up to the task: according to PFF, Moses hasn't allowed a sack since Week 3, and has allowed only two pressures in his last three games, which is good for a 98.9% pass-blocking efficiency rate. His total pass-blocking efficiency in that span is 98.0%, which ranks fourth out of 19 tackles with at least 200 snaps. That's not to say Moses can block Anderson 1-on-1 and wipe him out of the game, but there's reason to be confident in his ability to deliver solid-enough blocking to keep Maye upright most of the time.

On the interior, rookie left guard Jared Wilson is the other one under a bit of a microscope, after allowing six total pressures against L.A. Wilson is likely to get a heavy (emphasis on that word) dose of defensive tackles Tommy Togiai and Tim Settle. The former can shade to either side of the line, while the latter lines up mostly on the right. Togiai and Settle combined for 44 total pressures and three sacks during the regular season. The main concern over the middle is actually Sheldon Rankins (five sacks, 41 total pressures by himself), but he almost exclusively lines up to the left, making him more of a task for right guard Mike Onwenu.

This could be the week the Texans switch it up and test Campbell with Anderson, and Hunter on the opposite side. They switched places in the wild card round against the Steelers, as Hunter played 83.7% of his snaps on the left side of the defense, while Anderson lined up 76.9% of the time on the right side. So, the tackles have had a lot of studying to do across the board.

"They’re great players," Campbell said Wednesday (via Mike Kadlick). "I played against Will my freshman year in college and watched Danielle since I was a little kid when he was at LSU. They are who they are for a reason."

Projected Matchups

-- LT Will Campbell vs. EDGEs Danielle Hunter, Derek Barnett
-- LG Jared Wilson vs. DTs Tommy Togiai, Tim Settle
-- RG Mike Onwenu vs. DT Sheldon Rankins
-- RT Morgan Moses vs. EDGE Will Anderson Jr.

For McDaniels and Maye, their best recourse will be to simply get rid of the ball. They won't have time to drop back, stand in the pocket, and wait for plays to develop down the field. Maye will need to have quick outlets and safety valves, and he'll need to quickly identify those. They may also try to take advantage of their explosiveness off the line by attacking potential holes created behind them, although Anderson and Hunter are no slouches against the run, either.

The Texans also boast an elite cornerback duo with Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, and the defense allowed the seventh-fewest receptions with the fifth-lowest YAC in the league, so it's not like the quick game will be easy. But what choice do they have?

Regardless of what ends up on the play sheet, Maye is simply going to have to get the ball out of his hands (and Vrabel sounds like he agrees). He can't hold it, and he certainly can't try to do too much if they get home, or he'd be susceptible to more fumbles. And against this defense, you're liable to give up defensive touchdowns playing that way.

If McDaniels can draw up a reliable playbook, the line can hold up just enough, and Maye can play fast with accuracy, the Patriots could find a way to move the ball and score points. But the fact that this needs to be a multilayered plan with everyone working in harmony underlines how big a challenge awaits the Patriots offense this weekend. And the performance of these units could be the deciding factor in the game.