Patriots Mailbag: Taking on the Texans in the Divisional Round

The New England Patriots are moving on in the NFL Playoffs, so we're back with another addition of the Patriots Mailbag! With their win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night, the Patriots are now in line to host the Houston Texans with a place in the AFC Championship Game on the line.

Down the stretch of the regular season as the playoff picture was coming into focus the Texans were viewed as one of the tougher potential opponents for the Patriots in the playoff, mainly given their strong defense. Now, that matchup is a reality.

Where do the Texans have the advantage? What can the Patriots exploit? Time to dig into the matchup with what you the fans are wondering about the most...

From the general consensus of what I've seen, no I don't think people are overrating the Texans. While styalistically they have some strong similarities to the Chargers, the overall talent level is much higher. I'd be pretty surprised if this ends up looking like an 'easier' game than last week.

Obviously the big matchup in this game is the Patriots' offensive line against the vaunted Texans' pass rush. The numbers aren't as high as some people may expect (18th in pressure rate at 33.9%, T7th in sacks with 47) they can really impact the game even without laying a hand on the quarterback. Simply speeding up the operation was a big part in Houston forcing 29 turnovers this year, the third-most in the NFL.

On the left side in particular, this is a big challenge for rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. They'll likely find themselves lined up across from veteran Danielle Hunter most of the time, with Will Anderson mainly rushing off the right side of the offense.

It's a tough matchup, especially against a smart, physical veteran rusher. After last week's performance, the Patriots should be ready to send extra help that way, and in general put a focus on getting the ball out of Drake Maye's hands quickly (Houston allowed the sixth-shortest time to throw this year at 2.78 seconds). Hopefully there's natural improvement as well now that both players have a playoff game under their belt, and are another week removed from their injuries.

While a lot of attention will fairly be on the rookies, don't forget about the other side either. Anderson can be a game-wrecker, and had three sacks when the Patriots played the Texans last year. When he gets to the quarterback he gets his hands on the football, with three forced fumbles and three pass breakups this season. Morgan Moses will have his hands full just as much if not more than the rookies.

Another way the Patriots can help across the board is continue to make use of their six offensive linemen package with Thayer Munford as an eligible tight end. Last week the Patriots started throwing out of that look, and had success. Keeping that going until the Texans counter with a lighter group could be a way to exploit a personnel mismatch.

Speaking of the rookies on the offensive line, this is also fair to consider. After missing multiple games with a concussion, Wilson did have a rough game against the Chargers. That's after Ben Brown had played well stepping in for him, and there's a strong case for Brown to return to the lineup against Houston.

One thing to consider that always seems to fly a little under the radar when discussion offensive line changes is chemistry. Wilson and Campbell spent most of the season together, but prior to last week hadn't been on the field together for seven weeks. Campbell got time working with Brown as he returned from his knee injury.

Does the Patriots' coaching staff value the continuity more, or riding the hot hand? Putting Wilson back in the lineup last week seems to favor the former, but now they have a full game to go off of.

Even if Wilson does start, the idea of an in-game swap if he struggles could be an option as well. That being said, if the coaches really think that's a possibility there's something to be said for Brown getting the full week of practice with the top offense to begin with.

Screens can be a good way to offset a pass rush, but that's mainly against teams that blitz and/or play zone coverage. The Texans have one of the lowest blitz rates in the league (21%), and play a high rate of man behind it. That means that where will always be a defender assigned to the screen receiver, and more defenders behind to help clean things up. While they have struggled against screens this year that may be more of an anomaly that a weakness to exploit.

Overall, it is a little surprising that Josh McDaniels has called as few screens as he has this year. There may be a time down the road to implement more into the game plan, but this week probably isn't it.

If the Patriots do want an effective counter to the Texans' defensive style, it could be more QB runs. While Houston has faced the fewest quarterback runs against of any teams this season, their 6.4 yards per carry allowed to quarterbacks is the second-most in the NFL. That's because with a four-man rush they can only block so many escape lanes if they don't get home, and man coverage means defenders at the second level have their backs turned to the quarterback. Maye made a couple of big plays with his legs against man coverage last week, and likely will need to do so again this Sunday.

It's honestly kind of one in the same. McDaniels has done a great job designing and calling the offense this year. As always, one of McDaniels' biggest strengths is tailoring what the team is doing to the strengths of the players he's working with, and that's come through this season. So, having better players definitely allows him to do more, and in turn he's maximizing the players he has to work with.

Briefly, the Patriots threw extra attention at Aaron Donald and had a Hall of Fame guard at Joe Thuney as well as peak Trent Brown (who is currently on the Texans) matching up against him. Aside from generally giving help in the direction of rushers it's tough to find much overlap given that Aaron Donald played mostly on the interior, and the Texans' biggest pass rush threats are on the edge.

Good idea Matt, let's look at the other side of the ball. You're right in that C.J. Stroud did not look good under pressure all night, which has been the case all season. According to PFF he has a passer rating of 60.9 when under pressure, which ranks 19th of 24 qualified quarterbacks.

The big difference between this week and last week is that, while Justin Herbert also has a significant drop off under pressure this year, he was good against the blitz. That's not the case for Stroud, who ranks 16th out of 24 quarterbacks against the blitz.

Late in that game last week the Patriots opened up their blitz package more, and found success. This game should be a chance for Zak Kuhr to build on those blitzes, and send extra rushers at Stroud. And yes while the Patriots could be without Christian Gonzalez the Texans could also be without top wide receiver Nico Collins, forcing Stroud to throw under pressure to players he might not have as much trust in. Collins was second on the Texans with 71 targets this year (behind tight end Dalton Schultz with 82), no other player had more than 41.

As for the Texans' run game, they've had a rotation at running back all year. Rookie Woody Marks has the hot hand right now, after having his first NFL 100-yard game against the Steelers. Marks is effective when he gets into space, so the Patriots will need to win the initial push at the line of scrimmage.

The Texans' offensive line has much more talent than the Chargers. Then again for all the injuries Los Angeles was dealing with that's not a high bar. Houston has been average to just below average up front for most of the season, but in the regular season were a better pass protection unit than run blocking group.

That being said, the Steelers were able to expose them in the pass game. Stroud was under pressure an eye-popping 48.6% of the time according to Next Gen Stats. Stroud did not respond to that pressure well, taking three sacks and fumbling five times (he lost two). While the Patriots don't have a rusher like T.J. Watt, finding away to simulate that pressure up front should go a long way in this game.

Right now the book on the Patriots' offense seems to be - in part - taking away Stefon Diggs. The Bills did it in their win over the Pats at Gillette late in the season, and other teams have followed. Last week, the Chargers took a similar approach.

It wouldn't be surprising to see the Texans do the same this week. They have a couple of good options at cornerback on the other side in Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, and whoever draws the assignment should have help. That's where it will be up to Maye and the Patriots' other pass catchers to take advantage. If Houston is going to dictate its coverage around Diggs and send extra attention his way, who will benefit the most from having less attention on them?

Then again, you mention Diggs' potential motivation against a former team. He's had big games with extra attention on him before in his career, does he have at least one more in him at age-32? If so, that would be a massive development for the Patriots.