Barth’s 5 Things: How Patriots matchup strength-on-strength, weakness-on-weakness with Chargers

On Sunday, the New England Patriots host the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs. It will be the Patriots' first playoff game since the 2021 season, and their first time hosting a playoff game since 2019.

The Patriots lost both of those games, and both had a common theme in where the team was at heading into the playoffs. In both cases the Patriots 'backed in' to the postseason. The 2019 Patriots lost three of their last five games of the regular season, in a game that cost them a first-round bye. Then in 2021 the Patriots famously stumbled out of their Week 14 bye week, losing three of their last four games and dropping from the No. 1 overall seed to a Wild Card team.

In fact, stumbling at the end of the season had become a theme for the Patriots going back to the team's final Super Bowl year in 2018, when they had back-to-back upset losses in December before rebounding. A team that always prided itself in playing its best football after Thanksgiving went 14-23 in December/regular season January games from 2018-2024, good for a 37.8% winning percentage which ranks 25th in the NFL in that span. Even taking out the 2023 and 2024 seasons when the team was just all year, they went 11-15 in that Dec/Jan split from 2018-2022, which ranked 21st in the NFL.

This is all to say, it had been a while since the Patriots closed a season with momentum. As they get ready to return to the playoffs though, they do so on a roll. They have one loss since mid-September, which was a blown 21-point lead against the Bills coming out the bye week. Since then they've won three in a row which includes a comeback win against the Baltimore Ravens, and then truly one-sided blowouts over the Jets and Dolphins to close the season. In total, they went 4-1 post-Thanksgiving - their best post-Thanksgiving record since going 4-1 to close out the year in 2017.

Unlike the last few times the Patriots have been on the postseason stage, it's fair to say they head into the tournament this year with serious momentum. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars realistically challenge the Patriots as the 'hottest' team in the AFC picture heading into the playoffs.

As for the Chargers, they aren't truly 'backing in' but aren't nearly on the roll the Patriots are on. They won four games in a row after their Week 12 bye with blowout wins over the Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys sandwiching three point wins over the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs (that was the game where Patrick Mahomes hurt his knee). They then dropped their last two games, with a loss to the Houston Texans in Week 17 costing them a shot to play for the division in Week 18, leading to them benching most of their starters in the finale against the Denver Broncos.

As Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel pointed out on Sunday night though, the records reset when the playoffs begin. Momentum aside, how do these teams match up? So often in these playoff matchups the focus is 'strength-on-strength.' Which team is going to take away what the other does best?

However, in this game a more fascinating matchup and maybe more crucial area of the game is a 'weakness-on-weakness.' We'll start there in a Wild Card edition of '5 Things'...

Both the Patriots' defensive front and Chargers' offensive line were supposed to be strengths for the respective teams in 2025. That hasn't played out as expected.

The Patriots' pass rush has had its moments, but has also gone quiet at times. Their total pressure rate of the season was 35.9% which ranks 10th in the NFL, but that number drops to 33.7% against teams not named the Jets, Dolphins, or Browns. In all games their pressure rate without blitzing is just 30.9%, which ranks 15th in the NFL.

Injuries have been a big part of these issues for the Patriots. Milton Williams missed more than a month and Harold Landry has been playing through a knee injury for most of the season. Christian Barmore and K'Lavon Chaisson lead the Patriots with 54 and 52 pressures respectively, but both have been streaky.

When the Patriots' pass rush is getting home regularly, the defense just looks different and plays to a much higher level. They just haven't gotten that consistently, especially without blitzing. Could they get that this week?

Injuries have also been a blow to the Chargers' offensive line. In particular, starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are both on IR.

The result? No quarterback in football this year was pressured more than Justin Herbert. He was under fire at a 43.3% rate, with Jacoby Brissett being the only other qualifying quarterback over 40 this season.

While no quarterback is going to be better under pressure than when kept clean, Herbert's drop off this year when facing pressure is more stark than the average passer. His completion percentage goes from 76.6% to 47.2%, his yards per attempt from 7.5 to 6.8, and his passer rating from 104.6 to 74.4. He's thrown seven interceptions on 334 pass attempts from clean pockets, and six in 178 when under pressure.

On top of that, Herbert is dealing with an injury to his non-throwing hand and is playing with extra padding on it. Prior to hurting his hand he fumbled the ball just twice this season - both in Week 2. After going 10 games in a row without a fumble, Herbert has fumbled five times in the last four games. If the Patriots can get to him, there's a chance he'll put the ball on the ground.

Where Herbert has thrived though is when he's blitzed. Those splits are more favorable for him. So, the key for the Patriots should be pressuring Herbert without having to send extra defenders at him. They'll have a chance against LA's banged-up offensive line, it'll just be up to them to take advantage. If they can force the Chargers into clear drop back passing situations, that will help further.

In order to get the Chargers into those situations, the Patriots will need to stop the run and keep them behind the sticks. That will put the Patriots' run defense in the spotlight.

Things looked better with Milton Williams in the lineup last week, but that was against a Dolphins team down multiple starters. The Patriots will need Williams and Robert Spillane to play a big role to get the run defense back to where it was before they both got hurt.

The Chargers haven't leaned on the run much this year. They ran the ball on just 42.6% of their plays this year, the 12th lowest rate in the league. That's uncharacteristic for offensive coordinator Greg Roman, so maybe they make the adjustment for the playoffs, especially if they have success running the ball early on.

When the Chargers have run the ball, they've averaged 4.4 yards per carry. That ranks 13th in the NFL this year. They've been at their best running to the outside, rather than up the middle.

However, the Chargers may be shorthanded on the ground. Omarion Hampton, the running back they drafted in the first round back in the spring and a college teammate of Drake Maye at UNC, missed the first two days of practice this week with an ankle injury. If he's out the Chargers will likely need to lean on second-year back Kimani Vidal, who was recently dealing with a neck injury. Those two have handled the vast majority of the Chargers' running back snaps this year.

Meanwhile when the Patriots have the ball, we can focus on a strength-on-strength matchup. That's the Patriots pass offense, facing one of the better pass defenses it will see this year in the Chargers. Los Angeles was fifth this year in fewest pass yards allowed and ninth in yards per attempt allowed.

What makes the Chargers tough is they have playmakers at all three levels. Up front, 2023 second-round pick Tuli Tuipulotu has emerged as a leading pass rusher, and had 13.5 sacks this season. Tuipulotu is a well-rounded rusher, and what can make him especially tough to deal with is the fact that the Chargers will play him on either side to hunt matchups, rather than just have him rush off one side like many top pass rushers. There's depth behind him as well with Odafe Oweh, Bud Dupree, and Khalil Mack also in the rotation.

At the second level, Daiyan Henley is a rangy player who can help clean up on short passes. He also has five pass breakups and two picks this year.

Then, there's the secondary. That unit is led by 29-year-old All-Pro safety Derwin James. James lines up all over the formation, and the Patriots will need to find him each snap. James can be a factor against the pass and the run, especially when playing in the box - which he does a good amount. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels noted this week that the Chargers basically have a 'front eight' with James against the run.

"He's relentless. He's a great football player," Maye said of James this week. "He's always around the football. He's got a knack for the football, and he's had that probably since he started playing. He's a great player. A lot of respect for him, and we've got to find out on every play where he's at."

Like their offensive line, the Chargers' cornerbacks are banged up. Tarheeb Still - who was the player LA drafted with the other pick in the 2024 draft day swap after McConkey - holds down one spot but the question is who will play opposite him? Donte Jackson has played a starting role this year, but is dealing with an ankle injury.

That could be the Patriots' opening to have an advantage. If Jackson is out or limited, or the Chargers simply rotate more aggressively, their depth falls off. In particular their next two corners up - Cam Hart and Benjamin St-Juste - are more big, physical corners without straight line speed. They could offer the chance for the Patriots to attack deep, especially to players like Kyle Williams and Pop Douglas.

Those may be the Patriots' best chances for big plays in this game. The Chargers haven't been bad against the deep ball but they're middle of the pack - their 74.4 passer rating against on throws of 20+ yards ranks 13th in the NFL. The volume of explosive plays in the pass game is low, but that's because the Chargers had the second-fewest defensive snaps of any team in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the run defense for LA has been boom-or-bust. Their 52 rushes of 10+ yards allowed are tied for the 13th-most in the NFL, which is disproportional considering they have the second-fewest rush attempts against (the Bills, who have the fewest rush attempts against, have allowed the second-most 10+ yard runs in the NFL at 65). At the same time, the Chargers have stuffed 19.5% of their runs, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Considering the Patriots' run game itself has been boom-or-bust this year, this is another interesting matchup where the two sides sort of mirror each other.

"Are you tough enough to stand in there and slug it out? Because that is not going to be a small thing on Sunday night," McDaniels added this week when talking about the Chargers' defense. "So we’re going to need every ounce of our toughness, our details…to consistently do anything well against this unit."

Moreso than average, turnovers will be key in deciding this game. Both teams were middle of the pack in turnover differential (Patriots +3, Chargers +2) but got there in very different ways.

While that Chargers' defense and secondary has done a great job of taking the ball away - Los Angeles has the third-most interceptions (19) and seventh-most takeaways (23) in the NFL this year - the offense has given the ball away 21 times which ranks towards teh bottom of the league.

The Patriots were on the other side of things. In one of the biggest developments for this young offensive group they did a great job of taking care of the football this year with just 16 giveaways (five of which came in a single game in Week 3) ranking ninth-fewest in the league. The defense did not turn the ball over at the expected rate though. They took the ball away just 19 times, which ranked 19th in the league.

Which side wins out will go a long way in determining this game. The Chargers need turnovers to help bolster what's been an inconsistent offense, so if Maye & Co. can take care of the football that's a major advantage for the Patriots, especially if the Chargers still give it away once or twice (they had 11 turnovers in the final five games of the season). However if it turns into a turnover-fest, that's advantage LA.

In the kicking game, the Patriots should have opportunities to gain an edge. The Chargers rank 26th in the NFL in yards per kick return at 24.7 yards per return, and are tied for 29th in yards per punt return at 6.5 yards per return. In coverage they're 27th with 27.7 yards allowed per kick return, and 30th with 14.5 allowed per punt return.

One player in particular to watch is Marcus Jones. Teams have been scheming their punts around limiting Jones' returns in recent weeks, and the Chargers may do the same. That could help the Patriots in terms of field position, but if Jones gets a chance he should have an opportunity to help flip the game for the Patriots. Big punt returns have been major highlights of Patriots playoff runs in the past, and they have one of the best returners in football heading into this one.