The problem with Drake Maye being an MVP candidate

Drake Maye is at worst the No. 2 candidate to win the NFL MVP award. He could very well win it, and he'd deserve it. But there's an inherent, underlying problem with that possibility, when it comes to the Patriots and their upcoming playoff run.

The MVP is a reflection of a player making up for an incomplete team. And incomplete teams generally don't win Super Bowls.

That's not to say the Pats are in a "Super Bowl or bust" situation. They're ahead of schedule in their turnaround under head coach Mike Vrabel, with Maye's dramatic leap forward at the center of it. Maye's superb second season spearheaded the Patriots' march to a 14-3 record and the No. 2 seed in the AFC. But going into the season -- even watching Maye himself at camp -- the prevailing wisdom was that this team wasn't close to being a Super Bowl contender.

And they'll be hard-pressed to pull it off as soon as this year. Not because of Maye, but what is (or isn't) around him.

The Patriots may ultimately run into a more balanced, complete, well-rounded football team and come up short in the playoffs, and that wouldn't be the end of the world. But it's a powerful sign of that potential fate that Maye is such a strong candidate to win MVP in the first place. The best argument for Maye against the Rams' Matthew Stafford, who finished out the regular season as the betting favorite to win the award at -165 (via OddsShark), is that he's done more with less.

That's exactly the issue with MVPs. They can't win the Super Bowl by themselves. That's why, until Patrick Mahomes pulled it off in 2022, the last MVP to actually win the Super Bowl was Kurt Warner for the Rams in the 1999 season. Even Tom Brady, a three-time MVP, never won it all in those years. Because even the GOAT needs a herd behind him to help hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

What could be the flaws that hold the Patriots back this year? If you need a stat, they enter the playoffs ninth in DVOA, essentially the NFL's version of WAR, and merely fifth in the AFC in that category. The Texans, Jaguars, Broncos, and Bills are all ahead of them.

But to dive a little deeper into the numbers, the Patriots offense may have an issue with pressure. They've been pressured on 38.3% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate of any playoff team in the league. Their pass-catchers were 22nd in the NFL in average separation at 3.3 yards per target and 16th in yards after the catch.

There's worthwhile context: Maye has made up for that by being the league's highest-rated passer on passes of 20-plus yards (minimum 30 attempts) with a ridiculous 132.7 passer rating. He's also the highest-rated passer in the playoffs under pressure, with a 90.4 passer rating in those situations (via Pro Football Focus).

The real downfall of the Patriots could ultimately come on defense. They've been curiously quiet from a pass-rush standpoint, despite having two excellent interior rushers in Milton Williams and Christian Barmore. Despite a solid overall pressure rate (35.3%, 10th in the NFL), their average time to pressure drops to 14th at 2.7 seconds, and their 35 sacks were 26th overall. Sacks aren't the entire story when it comes to pressure, but they do become much more important when you get to a playoff game with an opposing quarterback in a gotta-have-it situation. Especially off the edge, do the Patriots have enough to supplement Maye and the offense in that area?

Despite the run defense improving in Week 18 with the return of Williams, the Pats allowed 4.6 yards per carry and six touchdown runs over their final four games. The games against the Bills and Ravens (combined 4.8 yards per carry, 5 TDs) should carry more weight than the stupid Jets and Dolphins, too, because of the talent on the field. The impending return of linebacker Robert Spillane should help, but a strong running team may be able to find ways to exploit them.

How about the red zone? This is really where the Patriots could find themselves in trouble, if they let an opponent get down there. They had by far the highest rate of touchdowns allowed in the red zone of any playoff team at 67.5%. Even the Dolphins fooled the Pats secondary to find a wide-open receiver for their only touchdown last Sunday. A good, smart quarterback and head coach could (should?) find ways to replicate that level of red zone success.

So, while Maye would be a deserving MVP winner, it would still underline the reality that the Patriots still have work to do to actually go win the Super Bowl. And again, that's OK. Despite all these question marks, they should absolutely beat the Chargers -- the only playoff team with a worse pressure rate on offense -- and advance to the divisional round. And hey, maybe Maye is just that good. Maybe he's the new Mahomes, and can overcome all this all the way to Santa Clara.

But if Maye has an off day, or the opponent does just enough to slow him down? Don't be surprised if we come out of this season with no Lombardi Trophy for Maye and the Patriots, and instead questions of how they can continue to improve the roster. Because history suggests that they still need to field a more complete, balanced team for Maye to actually lift them to the top of the mountain.