A look at the playoff seeding options and paths for the Patriots in Week 18
Let’s take a look at the playoff seeding scenarios for the Patriots in Week 18.
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 07: Head coach Mike Vrabel of the New England Patriots speaks with Drake Maye #10 during the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Gillette Stadium on September 07, 2025 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Adam Glanzman/Getty ImagesThe New England Patriots know they're hosting a playoff game at Gillette Stadium sometime in January. And that, right now, is pretty much all they know.
Entering Sunday's regular season finale against the Dolphins, the Patriots are still capable of being the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Or the No. 2 seed. Or even the No. 3 seed.
So, how could it all shake out for Mike Vrabel and his team?
For the Patriots, the path to the No. 1 seed is pretty simple: For the Patriots to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Pats will need to beat (or tie) the Dolphins at home, and the Broncos would need to lose to the Chargers. Help from the Chargers will be hard to find, though, as the Chargers will not start Justin Herbert and will instead give the start to Trey Lance. This will be just the sixth start of Lance's career, and his first since he got the start for the Cowboys in their Week 18 finale last season.
When it comes to staying in the No. 2 seed in the AFC, the simplest way to look at it is this: If the Patriots beat the Dolphins and get no help from the Chargers or Titans (playing the Jaguars), they're locked into the No. 2 seed. Another way of looking at it: A New England win and Denver victory keeps the Pats in the No. 2 seed.
As for the No. 3 seed, which would be the worst case scenario, the Patriots would need to lose to the Dolphins and Jags would need to beat the Titans.
Beyond an ability to bump the Pats out of the No. 2 seed, the Jaguars could also finish today as the No. 1 seed in the AFC East should their win be coupled with losses by both the Broncos and Patriots as they'd hold the tiebreaker over both clubs.
Patriots playoff seeding scenarios
No. 1 seed: PATRIOTS WIN/TIE VS. DOLPHINS AND BRONCOS LOSS VS. CHARGERS.
No. 2 seed: PATRIOTS WIN VS. DOLPHINS AND BRONCOS WIN VS. CHARGERS.
No. 3 seed: PATRIOTS LOSS VS. DOLPHINS AND JAGUARS WIN VS. TITANS.
The Patriots will come into Sunday's game with a great chance of at least holding serve at the No. 2 spot, as the Dolphins will not play star running back De'Von Achane and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle.
