Barth’s 5 Things: Patriots wrap up regular season against Dolphins

A year ago in Week 18, the New England Patriots had more to play for than may have initially met the eye. The then-three-win team had long been eliminated from the playoffs, but a loss would secure the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. The Patriots ended up winning that game to kick off the 2025 calendar year.

Fast forward to their first game of 2026, and it's a similar circumstance but a very different situation. The Patriots, having flipped their record around to 13-3, have already locked up a playoff spot and the AFC East division title. However there's still stakes on the line this Sunday, when they host the Miami Dolphins in the regular season finale. With one week to go, the Patriots can finish anywhere between the No. 1 and No. 3 seed in the AFC.

That difference in seeding may be viewed differently by some than others, especially as the team is dealing with a run of injuries. Will they use this week to get healthy, or go all-out to help their seeding as much as possible? Somewhere in the middle?

Let's look at both sides, as we get going in the final '5 Things' of the 2025 regular season...

What needs to happen for the Patriots to move up or down in the AFC playoff picture? First, let's take a look at the current standings, games involved and when they're being played:

1. Broncos (13-3)
2. Patriots (13-3)
3. Jaguars (12-4)

*Broncos and Jaguars both own tiebreakers over Patriots, Jaguars own three-way tiebreaker

Titans at Jaguars: 1:00
Dolphins at Patriots: 4:25
Chargers at Broncos 4:25

For the Jaguars to jump the Patriots and push them to the No. 3 seed, they'd need a win over the Tennessee Titans plus a Patriots loss. If the Jags lose that game the Patriots will be locked into at least one of the top two seeds, but with a 1:00 start the Patriots will have that information one way or the other before they even kick off.

Even if the Jaguars win, the Patriots can maintain the No. 2 seed with a win of their own. Although the No. 2 seed no longer comes with a bye, it still is significant. The Patriots would be guaranteed a second home game if they take care of business in the Wild Card round, and if the Broncos get knocked off early they'd host the AFC Championship with one more win.

Although the Patriots have been excellent on the road this year, playing at home is still the ultimate benefit in the postseason. Over the last 10 years NFL teams have a 54.3% winning percentage during the regular season, that jumps to 66.4% in the playoffs. That's what at stake with getting the No. 2 seed versus the No. 3 seed.

Then, of course, there's the No. 1 seed. The Patriots would need a win and a Broncos loss to secure that (it doesn't matter what Jacksonville does in this scenario). They'll be counting on Trey Lance, who is starting for LA with Justin Herbert getting a rest week.

That result can still impact the Patriots in the No. 2 seed too. They'll face whoever ends up with the No. 7 seed. Right now that's the Buffalo Bills, who would be locked into No. 7 with a loss. But a Bills win over the lowly New York Jets in the final game at Highmark Stadium, paired with a Chargers loss, would knock Los Angeles down to the seven seed.

So that's what's at stake. At the same time the Patriots are dealing with multiple injuries, and with the playoffs already clinched do have the option to use this as a week to rest players. Earlier this week head coach Mike Vrabel was asked if he plans to play the starters.

"Of course. Anybody that's healthy," Vrabel said. "We're going to do everything we can to win the football game."

The injury report will be something to monitor this week, given Vrabel qualifying his answer about players that are healthy. That could mean the team gives another week of rest to a player like Harold Landry, who has been playing through a knee injury most of the year but did miss last week.

The big question will be a player like Robert Spillane, who has missed multiple weeks with an ankle injury. Will the team want him to get some snaps in so he's not going into the playoffs cold, or give him the extra week of rest even if he's good to get back on the field.

Still, if the Patriots play most of their starters, they may end up with an advantage over a Miami team that could be down multiple starters from a lesser roster. Running back De'Von Achane, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, pass rusher Chop Robinson, and safety Mikah Fitzpatrick were among those who did not practice for Miami to start the week. Waddle and Robinson returned as limited on Thursday, but will the Dolphins put them on the field in a game where they're already eliminated from the playoffs if they're not 100%?

On the other side of things, this could be another good chance for the Patriots to continue to get some of their younger players who have been buried on the depth chart this year reps. That includes players like Kyle Williams and Efton Chism at wide receiver and Elijah Ponder and Bradyn Swinson up front defensively.

Then there's the question of the players coming back from IR. Will Campbell and Alex Austin both returned to practice this week, and Milton Williams still hasn't been activated after returning last week.

By the time Sunday's game rolls around, it will have been over 50 days since Williams last played in a football game. Campbell and Austin will be over 40. Spillane could fit in this category too - although he wasn't on IR he still hasn't played in what is now over a month.

If they don't play, tack another week on heading into the playoffs. Assuming they're all healthy and don't have setbacks in practice, do the Patriots want those players to have that long of a layoff and then have their first live action come in a playoff game? Or, will they get them at least some run this week?

That's not to say they need to play the whole game. The Patriots could play any or all three players on a snap count, just to get their feet wet without over-exerting them in their first game back.

If any of those players play it will be worth watching for where they're at physically heading into the playoffs - especially Williams and Spillane. The last few weeks have made it clear their absence has been a big part of the recent issues with the run game. When either or both return, how close will they be to the player they were before the injury? That should be an indicator of just how much the Patriots' run defense overall can improve.

We've talked a lot about which players will or won't be on the field, but once they are what will they be asked to do? How will the Dolphins attack the Patriots? This is a Miami team that - although eliminated from the playoffs - comes in with some momentum. The Dolphins have won three of five games since their bye week, including a win over a desperate Tampa Bay Buccaneers team last week.

Offensively, look for the Dolphins to deliver a heavy dose of play action. Miami has been using play action on about 40% of their dropbacks since rookie Quinn Ewers took over at quarterback two weeks ago. That's up over 10% from the rate they used with Tua Tagovailoa for most of the season.

They haven't just been using more play action, but they've been effective with it too. So far Ewers is 19-of-25 (76%) off play action for 243 yards, averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. That's compared to a 57.1% completion percentage and 6.9 yards per attempt on traditional dropbacks.

If Achane doesn't go that will likely impact just how effective the play action game, which is based off Miami's strong run game, would be. Either way though, it should be a good test especially if Williams and Spillane are back in the lineup.

When the Patriots are on offense, they need to make sure they focus on taking care of the football. Miami started the season struggling to force turnovers, but had three takeaways last week and has multiple turnovers in three of the last five games.

We'll be back next week with another '5 Things' for the playoffs, but from here on out we're week-to-week. So I just wanted to take this chance - the 90th of 90 'Things' this season, to thank everybody for reading all season long - as well as those of you who have tuned into Sunday Kickoff and the Patriots Hub Podcast. Looking forward to sharing more as the Patriots make their first playoff appearance since 2021, and look for their first playoff win since 2018.