Maye pulls away in NFL MVP odds after Stafford’s dud
The odds continue to shift back-and-forth between Maye and Matthew Stafford. Here are the latest lines entering Week 18.
The NFL MVP odds have been a week-to-week proposition, with no clear favorite emerging down the stretch of the season. But it has become a two-man race between the Patriots' Drake Maye and the Rams' Matthew Stafford, and the former has now become the clear leader entering the regular season finale.
As of Tuesday morning, the DraftKings Sportsbook lists Maye as the MVP favorite at -400. Stafford isn't terribly far behind, but he's the clear No. 2 at +300. The Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence and the Bears' Caleb Williams are tied for a distant third place at +18000. Maye vaulted himself into the lead on his own merits, throwing a career-best five touchdown passes in Sunday's domination of the New York Jets. Maye threw his five scores to five different pass-catchers, including to rookie wide receiver Efton Chism III for the first time in his career, while also posting his best single-game passer rating of the season (157.0).
Stafford, meanwhile, ended up with his worst single-game passer rating (64.5) in what's otherwise been a career-best season for the 37-year-old. The Rams quarterback finished 22-for-38 for 269 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions (a season-high) in a 27-24 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on "Monday Night Football," which sank his MVP chances below Maye's through 17 weeks. Stafford entered Monday with the best NFL MVP odds at -230, compared to +180 for Maye (via NFL.com). Stafford nearly led L.A. down the field for a last-minute game-tying drive Monday night, but also put himself in that position in the first place, as one of his earlier interceptions resulted in a pick-six for Atlanta.
There's still one week left for Maye and Stafford to finalize their MVP cases. The Patriots are still playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, while the best the Rams can hope for is the fifth spot in the NFC. So it stands to reason that Maye can only hurt his own cause, if he scuffles and the Patriots get upset by Miami in Week 18, which would make them vulnerable of falling to the third seed. That alone feels like Stafford's chance to get back in the race. Like the Patriots need help from the Broncos to get No. 1, Stafford needs "help" from Maye to reclaim his MVP chances.
But that's using logic. Stafford remains the sentimental choice to win MVP, and entering Week 18 still leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 42, which is a career-best mark for him. His 108.8 passer rating is also a career-high. If he wins MVP, it would be a lifetime achievement award of sorts.
Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesWhat Maye has going for him is he enters the final week as the NFL's leader in passer rating at 112.9. He's also helmed a Patriots roster that is arguably not as talented overall as the Rams' group, while leading a massive single-season turnaround from a 4-13 record in 2024 to at least 13 wins in 2025. Maye's breakout is the clear key to the Pats' success, giving him a strong case to be more "valuable" to his team than Stafford is to his.
It'll be interesting to see whether the line moves, if at all, between Tuesday and Sunday. We're predicting the line to move back in Stafford's direction, if only slightly, as he drops to plus money.
