Barth’s 5 Things: Patriots will have chances to right wrongs against Ravens

After a tough loss to the Buffalo Bills last week, it's time for the New England Patriots to turn the page. Everything is still ahead of them - if they take care of business down the stretch they can still make the playoffs and win the AFC East.

That process starts on Sunday, with the Patriots visiting the Baltimore Ravens. This used to feel like a more regular series, but this will be the first time the Patriots and Ravens meet since 2022, and the first time the Patriots travel to M&T Bank Stadium since 2019.

As the Patriots head to Baltimore, they'll face a Ravens team that poses a lot of similar challenges to the Bills. Many of the areas where the Patriots struggled in that last game, they'll have a chance to prove they can fix - or get exposed again.

Will the Patriots answer the lingering questions left after the Bills game? Or will they continue to need to find fixes? Let's get into it in this week's '5 Things'...

The Patriots' run defense had been dropping off in recent weeks, but the dam broke on Sunday against Buffalo. Over the first 10 weeks of the season the Patriots allowed 3.8 yards per carry, which was the fourth-best in the NFL during that stretch.

Things started teetering after that, and then injuries became a factor. Milton Williams' absence has been the biggest blow but the team has also been without other key run defenders such as Khyiris Tonga, Robert Spillane, and Jahlani Tavai during this stretch. Starting with the Jets game that Williams left early and then going through the bye the Patriots average yards per carry against jumped to 4.8 yards per carry, tied for the sixth-most in the NFL. The Patriots then allowed 5.0 yards per carry against the Bills' strong rushing attack (excluding kneeldowns).

This week won't be any easier on the Patriots' run defense. The Ravens have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, ranking third in total yards and first in the league averaging 5.2 yards per carry. That run game is centered around Derrick Henry, who is still playing well in his 10th NFL season.

Where Henry has always dominated the most is initiating and winning with contact. The 6-foot-2, 252-pound running back is a chore to get to the ground, arguably more than any running back in recent NFL history. Henry ranks fifth in the NFL this season averaging 3.7 yards per contact after carry.

While James Cook isn't quite the same power back Henry is, last week he was very effective in 'winning the tackle.' Even when the Patriots got to him around the line of scrimmage, he'd consistently fall forward through contact, creating an extra two or three yards as he was dragged down even if he didn't truly break the tackle. Over the course of a drive and a game, those yards add up. This is where not having Spillane, arguably the most sure tackler on the Patriots' defense, really was noticeable.

Nobody is better at 'winning the tackle' than Henry. He's going to get his, but the Patriots will need to be sure to swarm to the ball and gang tackle when he gets it to limit that impact. That could be tougher without Spillane, who missed the first two days of practice this week. Williams will still be out as well, as he's not eligible to return from IR until next week.

That's all is in addition to stopping the run at the point of attack. Head coach Mike Vrabel said earlier this week that "we have to be able to stay gap sound and be able to build a wall" when discussing the running game.

Of course, Henry is only one part of Baltimore's rushing attack. The Patriots will have to contain Lamar Jackson, and be ready for potential end arounds to speedy players like Zay Flowers. For the second game in a row the Patriots' run defense will be shorthanded and have its hands full - how will the unit respond?

Another thing that hurt the Patriots against the Bills, and has been a theme for most of the season, was their issues covering tight ends. Dawson Knox caught three passes for 37 yards and two touchdowns, and Dalton Kincaid added three catches for 34 yards. What hurt the most was that of those six catches three converted on 3rd downs, including Knox's second touchdown on a 3rd & goal from the 14. For the season, the Patriots are now tied

Just like the Bills' the Ravens' passing game leans heavily on multiple tight ends. After Flowers, Jackson's two most-targeted options are Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Both present different kinds of challenges.

Andrews is more of a traditional in-line tight end. Meanwhile Likely has lined up 69.5% of the time in the slot this year, which could lead to the Patriots treating him more like a big slot receiver at 6-foot-4, 241 pounds.

The Patriots' coaching staff will have to find the balance between keeping enough size on the field to defend the run, but also enough coverage players on the field to handle the tight ends. This could be a big spot for Christian Elliss, who did have a strong game in coverage last week against the Bills. Safety Craig Woodson will likley also find himself in a significant role.

If the Patriots can contain the tight ends, that could significantly limit Baltimore's passing game. Besides Flowers, Andrews, and Likely only one other player on Baltimore's roster has more than 20 catches this season (running back Justice Hill has 21). That could make the Ravens' offense one-dimensional, but then we're back to the stopping the run conversation. From a Ravens' standpoint, they may try to run the ball in this game as much as they can until/unless the Patriots give them a reason not to.

On the other side of the ball, this is a potential bounce-back game for quarterback Drake Maye. Maye's performance against the Bills - especially in the second half - may have been his worst of the season. Accuracy issues popped up multiple times during the game, and he and the offense as a whole struggled to get in a rhythm.

Unlike the Bills, the Ravens bring a stronger defense into this game. The unit ranks middle of the pack in many major categories in the league this year, but has been trending for the last month or so - in particular against the pass.

Last week was one of their best efforts of the season, as they clamped down on Joe Burrow and his star receivers in a 'gotta-have-it' game for the Bengals. Burrow completed 25 of his 39 pass attempts for 225 yards with no touchdowns but two picks. He was also sacked three times.

The Ravens have playmakers at all three levels of the defense, but the secondary is where they can really change a game. That group is highlighted by safety Kyle Hamilton, who Josh McDaniels said this week is among the elite players in the league at the position. He's joined by rookie first round pick Malaki Starks on the back end, with Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins at cornerback.

All four of those players know how to ballhawk. Maye's accuracy didn't create any turnovers last week (although he did have one should-be interception dropped, while his lone pick was more of an arm punt) but the threat will be real in this one.

Another spot where where the Patriots need to be better than where they were a week ago is special teams - in particular covering kickoffs. Short fields for the Bills' offense is what allowed them to start turning the momentum, and their average starting field position off of the Patriots' first four kickoffs of the game was a yard shy of midfield.

Baltimore's return unit is more middle of the pack. They're averaging 26 yards per return this year, which ranks 14th in the NFL. But with a former special teams coordinator as the head coach in John Harbaugh, there's always the threat that he can pick up on something the Patriots struggled with last week, and try to replicate it. The Ravens have multiple looks like can throw at the Patriots on kickoff return, and have used five different kick returners over the course of the season.

The Patriots' return units will also have their work cut out for them. Baltimore is top 10 in the NFL this year defending both kickoff and punt returns. This could be the kind of game where the Patriots need a special teams spark, but it might be tough to come by on the return side of things.

After failing to set up their return to the playoffs last week, the Patriots will have another chance now against the Ravens. As mentioned above, with a win in this game the Patriots would clinch their first playoff appearance since 2021. That's all they can clinch this week - the AFC East can't be decided until next week at the earliest.

While ideally the Patriots punch their own ticket, they can also clinch this week even if they lose to Baltimore. They would need either a Texans loss to the Raiders (not likely), or a Colts loss to the 49ers (much more likely). That Texans-Raiders game is in the 4:00 window on Sunday, so with an upset Raiders win the Patriots could be a playoff team before they even snap the ball in Baltimore. Meanwhile the Colts-49ers game is Monday Night Football, so if they don't clinch on Sunday it'd be 24 hours to find out whether or not this is the week they get in.

Meanwhile, the chase for the No. 1 seed could officially end this week. A Denver Broncos win over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Patriots loss would officially put the Patriots out of the race. Losses by the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills as well would officially clinch the top seed for the Broncos.