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Updating the Patriots’ clinching scenarios after the Bills loss

The New England Patriots can’t clinch an AFC East title in Week 16, but they can officially lock up their playoff spot.

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS - NOVEMBER 02: New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel celebrates with Drake Maye #10 during the NFL 2025 game between Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on November 02, 2025 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – NOVEMBER 02: New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel celebrates with Drake Maye #10 during the NFL 2025 game between Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on November 02, 2025 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

After their loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, the Patriots' playoff picture still hasn't been made official yet. While they can't win the division this upcoming week, they can finally officially punch their ticket to the postseason.

That's right - despite sitting at 11 wins the Patriots still have not clinched a playoff spot. This week though that can change relatively simply.

On Tuesday, the NFL shared the clinching scenarios around the league for the upcoming Week 16. For the Patriots, it's as simple as win-and-in against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football. They would also get in with a tie.

While ideally the Patriots would take care of business for themselves, they do have other ways they can clinch even without a win. A Houston Texans loss or tie to the Las Vegas Raiders would do it, or an Indianapolis Colts loss to the San Francisco 49ers. The Texans-Raiders game is at 4:25 on Sunday, while the Colts don't play until Monday Night Football.

A playoff spot is all the Patriots can clinch for now. The division will come down to the final two AFC East games at the end of the year against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. The No. 1 seed is still a longshot, and the Broncos could actually lock it up this week with a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, plus losses by the Patriots, Bills (versus the Cleveland Browns), and the Los Angeles Chargers (versus the Dallas Cowboys).

Elsewhere around the AFC, the Bills can clinch a playoff spot with a win and loss by either the Colts or Texans, the Jaguars can clinch a spot with a win and loss by the Colts or Texans, and the Chargers can clinch a spot with a win and loss by either - that's right - the Colts or Texans.

Alex Barth is a digital content producer and on-air host for 98.5 The Sports Hub. Barth grew up in the Boston area and began covering the New England Patriots, Boston Celtics, and Boston Red Sox in 2017 before joining the Hub in 2020. He now covers all things Boston Sports for 985TheSportsHub.com as well as appearing on air. Alex writes about all New England sports, as well as college football. You can follow him across all social media platforms at @RealAlexBarth.