Patriots take big hit in race for No. 1 seed after Sunday
The Pats’ loss to the Bills was crushing for a number of reasons, most notably because of how it muddied the AFC playoff picture.
All of a sudden, the Patriots have a lot more work to do to maximize their playoff seeding.
The week-to-week goal hasn't changed: just win as many games as possible. The Patriots (11-3) could still win out, finish 14-3, and clinch the AFC East that way. But they already had an uphill battle to wrest the No. 1 seed away from the Denver Broncos, and that quest took a significant hit Sunday. The Pats lost to the Buffalo Bills, while the Broncos grabbed an impressive win over the Green Bay Packers to improve to 12-2. Denver has already clinched the tiebreaker over New England for the No. 1 seed. That means the Patriots have to go 2-1 in their final three games at a minimum, while the Broncos would have to lose their final three games in a row, in order for the Pats to overtake them.
According to PlayoffStatus.com, the Broncos now have a 78% chance of finishing with the No. 1 seed in the AFC, compared to just 11% for the Patriots. And to that end, the Pats' chances of finishing with the No. 2 seed are "only" 56%. Believe it or not, the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) are breathing down their necks, in addition to the Bills. But let's focus on the division for now. Now that the head-to-head tiebreaker is out, the Patriots and Bills need to look at their record against AFC East opponents for the rest of the season. Buffalo is now 3-2 against the division, while New England is 3-1. Both clubs have a game against the Jets coming up on the schedule. If they both win that one and have identical overall records entering Week 18, the Pats' regular season finale against the Dolphins could loom as a must-win scenario.
The Bills have chipped away at the "common opponents" tiebreaker in recent weeks, scoring a victory over the Steelers. They have two games left in that department with an 8-2 record so far, while the Patriots have three with an 8-1 record. So, the Pats can't slip up here. If they do, the next tiebreaker is conference record, where the Patriots are currently 6-3 while the Bills are 7-3. If that ends up tied, then the tiebreaker would move to "strength of victory," where, as of Monday the Bills have the edge with a .466 opposing winning percentage, compared to .420 for the Patriots. So, the Pats' easy schedule could end up biting them in the playoff race.
This is a long way of saying, the Patriots can just win out and none of this would be a concern. But that's going to be easier said than done, with a road matchup against the Ravens coming in Week 16. Baltimore is coming off a 24-0 win over the Bengals, and needs to win every game it can at 7-7 with only a 22% chance of making the playoffs. A win for the Patriots in Baltimore would be massive for their hopes of holding on in the division.
But if they slip up again, all these tiebreakers are going to bubble even farther to the surface. And the way it's trending, the Pats are simply going to want to avoid having the same record as their division rival.
