Barth’s 5 Things: Can the Patriots sweep the Bills coming out of the bye?

The New England Patriots return from the bye week this week in arguably their biggest game of the post-Tom Brady Era. At 11-2 and riding a 10-game winning streak the Patriots have a chance to win their first division title since 2019.

In order to do so, they'll have to beat the team that has been keeping the seat warm for the past five years - the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have won the AFC East every year since 2020, but with a Patriots win on Sunday they'd officially be unseated.

To do that the Patriots will have to find a way to beat the Bills for the second time this season. The Patriots have not swept the Bills in a season since 2019 (the Bills have swept the Patriots twice since), and haven't swept any divisional opponent since the Jets in 2022.

In his press conference to start the week on Monday, Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel discussed how the game planning works facing a team a second time.

"I think [the film from the first game] always viable," Vrabel explained. "There's a lot that's changed, but I think you can kind of see some of the play styles, matchups, things that they may come back to or things that we need to be more prepared for, and then kind of use that as a place to kind of go from. And then, again, some of the things that they've done really well, I'm sure they'll continue to do and add wrinkles. It's a great challenge."

"They've changed, they've continued to evolve and they've continued to improve," Vrabel added on Wednesday when asked about the general challenge of a rematch. "You just draw on some games here in the past."

Although it's their second meeting, there are some key differences between this matchup and the 23-20 Patriots win in Week 5 in Buffalo. We'll start with the biggest change as we get going in this week's '5 Things'...

Maybe it was because it was Drake Maye's first national TV breakout game, or maybe it just doesn't feel like it because it was months ago, but Milton Williams didn't seem to get enough attention after he had an outstanding game when the Patriots and Bills first met back in Week 5. Williams' athleticism was crucial both in stopping the run and chasing down Josh Allen when he maneuvered in the pocket.

This time around the Patriots will be without Williams, who is still on IR with an ankle injury and not eligible to return until Week 17 at the earliest. His absence might be the single biggest X's and O's difference between that first meeting and now.

That means adjustments will be needed from the Patriots' coaching staff, and other players will need to step up. In particular the Patriots will need to be worried about Buffalo's league-leading rushing attack, which is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. James Cook leads the way averaging 5.3 yards per carry despite having a league-leading 249 carries this season, and Allen's legs are always a threat both on designed runs and scrambles.

Look for the Patriots to potentially send more help at the line of scrimmage, but the Patriots will need to win at the line to contain that group. The run defense hasn't been the same since Williams went out, but the potential return of Khyiris Tonga from a chest injury could be a significant boost.

Then there's the rotation of Cory Durden, Eric Gregory, and Joshua Farmer playing next to Christian Barmore, who will also have more on his plate. Barmore also played well in the first meeting between the Patriots and Bills, but now he'll get more attention from Buffalo's blocking scheme without Williams next to him.

While the Bills have run the ball well this season, their pass game has struggled to reach the levels its been at the past few years. That seems to be personnel-driven more than anything - their wide receiver room has seen an exodus of talent and their offensive line has been banged up.

To help fill their wide receiver room the Bills have turned to veterans throughout the year. Gabe Davis was signed after training camp but not activated until mid-November. Brandin Cooks was then signed in late November.

As the Bills have tried to piece their passing game together the one constant has been slot receiver Kahlil Shakir. Shakir leads the Bills with 57 catches for 585 yards this season, and had six catches for 45 yards in the first meeting with the Patriots. Shakir mainly drew Marcus Jones in coverage, and if that's the matchup again it will be a key one for the Patriots to win.

The other key member of the Bills' passing game is hybrid tight end/big slot receiver Dalton Kincaid, although he just returned last week after missing time with a hamstring injury. He might be the biggest threat to the Patriots, who have had trouble covering tight ends this year. In the first matchup he had six catches for 108 yards, as the Patriots threw multiple coverage looks at him.

Up front, the Bills are getting healthier as well. Left tackle Dion Dawkins returned from an injury last week, and right tackle Spencer Brown is expected to be back this week after a shoulder injury.

Still, with Allen it all comes down to him being his own best pass protector. He does that by being able to maneuver around the pocket, shake off defenders, and throw through contact. Speaking to the media on Wednesday, Vrabel described the plan needed to rush a quarterback with Allen's skillset.

"You can keep him in the pocket. He's just got to stand there and wait for somebody to uncover," Vrabel said. "You have to just – again, coordinated and relentless is probably the best way to phrase it. Because, again, you say, 'Well, keep him in the pocket.' And then guys are just standing there and they're cautious, and we don't want to coach that way. We want to make sure that we're trying to remain aggressive, but certainly sound. When he does extend, then we're going to need to plaster and have guys be able to come up and help us."

Another big change from the last game - the Patriots will have extra time to prepare for this game. That's something that, historically, has been a benefit for Vrabel's teams.

In his six year's as the head coach of the Tennessee Titans, Vrabel went 6-0 in games following the bye week. Five of those six wins came by multi-score margins.

"Well, I think that these guys have played well and that's the most important thing, is focusing on what we can realistically try to improve and kind of enhance the stuff that we've been doing okay with," Vrabel said. "I know these guys got some rest, much needed rest, but we’ve got to crank this thing back up."

Meanwhile, since Sean McDermott became the Bills' head coach the Bills are 0-3 when facing a team coming off of a bye week. It's a relatively limited sample size with McDermott in his ninth year at the helm in Buffalo, but one of those losses did come earlier this year - a 24-14 defeat at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons. Another was against Mike Vrabel's Titans in 2020, in a 42-16 game. Both of those games, like the one this week, were road games for the Bills.

Last time the Patriots played the Bills, it was Stefon Diggs' first game back in Buffalo since the Bills traded him two years ago. The 32-year-old wide receiver visibly had some extra motivation for that one - and it showed on the field. It was Diggs' best performance of the year as he caught 10 passes for 146 yards, with eight of those catches going for first downs.

While it isn't back in the city he used to call home, will the Patriots get the same version of Diggs in the rematch? This time Diggs may be looking elsewhere for motivation, based on his answer when asked about the Patriots being underdogs in this matchup.

"I didn't know that. That's the first time I've heard it. Good," Diggs said on Wednesday when asked about the Patriots' underdog status in this game. Most books have the Patriots as a 1.5-point underdog at home, although some have the line as a point as of Friday morning.

“This team is full of (players) that were castoffs and people who were cut or people who didn’t necessarily get the opportunity that they wanted. However you dice it up, I feel like that’s good for us," Diggs continued. "Being an underdog, people like us have been an underdog our whole life. We’re going to have something to prove regardless of it. I think the main thing is it gets exciting when you’re an underdog, when you’ve got a lot to prove, when you’re playing with that edge and you’re playing aggressive because nobody believes in us but us."

Perhaps providing a boost, Diggs comes into this game rested. Not only are the Patriots coming off of a bye, but Diggs' usage decreased in the two games before the bye. He played 47% of the snaps in the games against the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants, which were his only two games under 50% this season. Prior to that, he'd played a total of 56.9% of the snaps over the first 11 weeks.

Earlier this year Vrabel talked about the importance of managing the workload of older players. With Diggs not appearing on the injury report it's possible the Patriots were helping him stay fresh for the stretch run - and that decision could pay dividends as soon as Sunday.

Games like this can often come down to just a few timely big plays. Don't be surprised if at least one of those plays in this game happens on special teams.

Big special teams plays have been somewhat of a regular feature in Patriots-Bills matchups in recent years. That trend started in 2022, when the Bills returned not one but two kickoffs for touchdowns in a win in Buffalo that ultimately kept the Patriots out of the playoffs. The next year the Patriots opened the game with a 98-yard touchdown return by Jalen Reagor in the meeting in Buffalo, but ultimately lost the game.

When the Patriots managed to keep things close with the Bills in their first meeting last year, they got a couple of big special teams plays. That was highlighted by a successful fake punt run from Dell Pettus on a 4th & 1 late in the second quarter, as well as a 42-yard kickoff return from Antonio Gibson on the opening drive that set up an early touchdown.

Even this year's meeting was decided, in part, thanks to a notable play on special teams. That was, of course, Andy Borregales' 52-yard walk-off field goal.

If there is a big special teams play in this one, there are a couple of clear places to look. Marcus Jones is the Patriots' biggest threat in that phase, with two punt return touchdowns already this year. Meanwhile the Bills' kickoff return unit has come on strong lately, averaging 31.5 yards per return over the past three weeks. Of course, this is special teams, so an unheralded hero is always a possibility.