Barth’s 5 Things: Scoreboard watching on the Patriots’ bye week

In some ways, the first 13 weeks of the 2025 NFL season flew by for the New England Patriots. In other ways, they were a grind.

Once the Patriots started winning, they didn't stop. After a shaky September the team got into a real rhythm, rolling off 10 wins in a row. They're now 11-2 sitting atop the AFC standings.

Part of the reason they were able to get into a rhythm was the schedule didn't really allow them to break their routine with a Week 14 bye. They played 10 Sunday games in a row to start the year, with nine of those games being played in the 1:00 p.m. ET window. Their 'mini-bye' didn't even come until Weeks 11 and 12, after a Thursday Night Football game against the Jets.

The Patriots' bye week is so late, it's tied for the latest one in the league (along with the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, and San Francisco 49ers) and is alone at the latest in the AFC.

That's given the Patriots a game in hand on all of the teams they're in the playoff race with, in their first season back in the playoff picture in a few years. That means this Sunday, the Patriots (and fans) will have some serious scoreboard watching to do for the first time in a while.

Luckily, it's a great slate of games this weekend with multiple outcomes that will impact the standings and the Patriots' playoff picture. With the Patriots off, this week's '5 Things' will be a look at the five games that mean the most to the Patriots this Sunday...

1:00 kickoff on FOX

It doesn't matter if the Bills win or lose this game, the Patriots can still clinch the AFC East with a win over Buffalo next week either way. But, that doesn't mean it has no meaning to the AFC picture as a whole.

On Buffalo's side, the Bills enter the week holding the third and final Wild Card spot in the AFC. Every game is important for their playoff positioning - especially for a team that has struggled to win on the road this year and probably wants to avoid tougher road environments like New England or Denver. Compounding that fact is the reality that they still have games with the Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles looming.

They'll be at home this week though, against a Bengals team that had extra time to prepare for this game after an impressive win over the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night. The Bengals looked reinvigorated with Joe Burrow back at quarterback. Burrow is 2-0 in his career against the Bills, including a 27-10 win at Buffalo in the 2022 playoffs. Despite being four games under .500 at the start of December the Bengals still aren't out of the division race in a down year in the AFC North.

1:00 kickoff on CBS

As the Bengals look to stay in the mix, elsewhere in the AFC North the Steelers and Ravens battle for temporary hold of first place in the division. It's the first of two meetings between the teams this year, before they meet in the regular season finale.

Neither team was impressive last week. The Steelers offense ground to a halt in Aaron Rodgers' first game back dealing with an injury to his non-throwing wrist, putting up just seven points and 166 yards against what's been a weak Bills defense this season.

The Ravens were overwhelmed by the Bengals on Thanksgiving, and uncertainty continues to surround quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson is dealing with an ankle injury, and missed Thursday's practice.

Whichever team wins this game will get a major leg up in the divisional race. The loser takes a big hit in the Wild Card picture. There are significant seeding implications both ways.

1:00 kickoff on CBS

The AFC South has a game to determine first place as well. A surging Jaguars team, winners of three in a row and four of five since the bye week, hosts a Colts team dealing with a number of significant injuries that is 0-2 since its bye week.

While the Colts looked to be among the class of the AFC early in the season, they've started to fall off. Now quarterback Daniel Jones is trying to play through a fractured fibula. Meanwhile, running back Jonathan Taylor's workload is starting to run up - he's second in the NFL with 261 touches. His production has dipped a bit the last two weeks and now he faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league to this point this season.

Like the Steelers-Ravens game, this is the first of two meetings between these two teams. The winner will grab control of the division for now, while the loser will find themselves right in the middle of a crowded Wild Card picture.

4:05 kickoff on CBS

This is the most lopsided game on our list - but maybe the most important for the Patriots. If the Broncos win, not only will they remain tied with the Patriots but they'll also guarantee they finish ahead of the Patriots in the standings via tiebreakers if both teams finish the season with the same record. Meanwhile if the Broncos lose, the Patriots end up in control of their own destiny for the top seed in the AFC and the only playoff bye in the conference.

Yes, on paper this game is lopsided. Denver enters the game as a 7.5-point favorite. Yet divisional games can be weird, which was the case the last time these two teams met. That was a Thursday night game in Denver, which the Broncos had to hold on to win 10-7.

The Raiders are the easiest opponent left on the Broncos' schedule, with the Green Bay Packers, Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Chargers still ahead (the Chiefs game is the only road game of the four). This isn't the last chance the Patriots have to pick up a game on Denver, but it's still worth watching.

8:20 kickoff on NBC

Finally we get to what may be the game of the week in the NFL. This one has massive implications for two high-profile teams.

After their Thanksgiving loss, the Chiefs are up against it. They enter the week in the 10th seed in the AFC, and according to NFL.com their playoff odds drop to 11% with a loss.

Even in the loss the Chiefs' offense did wake up a bit last week but now they face as tough of a test as there is in the NFL in the Texans' defense. Houston is allowing just 16.5 points per game and has been particularly tough against the pass. Only two teams recorded over 200 passing yards against the Texans this year, and the most recent one was Week 3. The pass rush has been smothering, and Patrick Mahomes will have to create while under fire.

Meanwhile the Texans' offense has been up-and-down. If they can give the defense enough support on the scoreboard though the Texans would have a huge win that would put them in the playoff picture and keep them within a game of the top of the AFC South standings.