Barth’s 5 Things: Patriots preparing to match up with lopsided Bengals team

After an arduous start to the season, the Patriots finally got a little bit of a break last week. They played 10 Sundays in a row to open their schedule, but after beating the New York Jets last Thursday got some extra time off with the 'mini-bye.' Now with some extra rest, the Patriots return to action this Sunday and visit the Cincinnati Bengals.

Even though they're coming off of the bye, the Patriots do still have injury situations they'll need to manage. That includes one star player who won't be on the field for the first time this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals will also be without a few of their top players.

Which team is better equipped to handle those absences? Which lesser-known players will step up in this game? Let's get to it in this week's '5 Things'...

This will be the first full game the Patriots play without defensive tackle Milton Williams. Williams suffered a high ankle sprain against the Jets and is now on IR, meaning he'll have to miss at least four games.

Williams' production won't be easy to replace. He was thriving in a multi-situation role with the Patriots. Among defensive linemen he currently ranks third in the NFL in pressures (35) and ranks second on the team with nine run stops.

"We won't have Milt, so for the foreseeable future, he'll work hard to get back. So, that's really where our focus is, it’s not so much as a reflection as it is just focusing on how do we get the guys ready to perform and continue to improve," head coach Mike Vrabel said on Monday when asked about the loss of Williams. "I think the thing we're trying to get everybody to understand is how much this is a progress league, and to be able to improve as the season goes on. And so, we'll have to do that without Milt, who's one of our contributors and is a big part of what we've done. But we'll have to do it without him here for a few weeks."

The silver lining for the Patriots here is that - if they are going to have to deal with a major injury - the defensive line is one of the few groups on the roster where they have the depth to absorb such a blow. That's not to say things won't look different without Williams, as they likely will, but they have players on the roster who can step up and prevent things from falling apart.

There are snaps that need to be filled though. Prior to missing most of the Jets game Williams was on the field for 65.4% of the Patriots' defensive snaps.

That starts with two players Patriots fans may have started getting more familiar with in recent weeks. Khyiris Tonga and Cory Durden have been in rotational roles for the Patriots' defensive front playing 40.4% and 28.4% of the team's defensive snaps respectively. Both of those usage rates will now likely go up. Tonga could end up playing more in passing situations, while Durden could be on the field more as a run player to help keep Tonga's usage manageable.

Their increased roles will open up more rotational spots. Rookies Joshua Farmer and Eric Gregory could see some more snaps there.

Of course, then there's Christian Barmore. His usage (63.6%) will likely stay about the same or maybe slightly increase, with most of this conversation being about who is going to play next to him where Williams was. Schematically though, more will be asked of his as a disruptor, as he gets more attention from opposing offenses without Williams also there as a threat.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are dealing with a number of availability questions. That's headlined by star quarterback Joe Burrow. Burrow has been out since Week 3 with a turf toe injury. When he was designated to return to IR last week, initial reporting had his return closer to Thanksgiving.

However, in a bit of a surprise Burrow was a full participant this week. On Thursday, head coach Zac Taylor didn't rule out the idea that Burrow could start this week.

But, would the Bengals really put their franchise player out there for this game? On one hand, the Bengals are 3-7 and heading into a short week with a Thanksgiving day game against the Baltimore Ravens up next.

Yet even at 3-7, the Bengals are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. They sit just two games behind the Ravens, and are three back of the Steelers - who are dealing with their own quarterback injury situation - in the division. Staring at what could be their third year in a row missing the playoffs, do Taylor and others in the organization go all-out with their jobs potentially on the line? With no more room for error, in that context a desperate swing like bringing Burrow back early ahead of a short week could make sense.

Compounding the issue is the fact that Joe Flacco - who has played well filling in for Burrow - has been limited all week due to an injury in his throwing shoulder. The Bengals also have Jake Browning and Sean Clifford on their active roster.

Whoever is going to be at quarterback for the Bengals, they're going to be without the team's top receiver. Ja'Marr Chase was suspended for this game earlier this week after spitting on Jalen Ramsey last week. Even by his standards Chase is having a strong season and at the time of his suspension led the NFL with 79 catches.

Without Chase, look for the Bengals to spread the ball around more. They still have their next two leading receivers in Tee Higgins and Andrei Iosivas.

Another potentially key development is that Mike Gesicki was designated to return from IR and has been a full participant this week. Along with Noah Fant, the Bengals have two tight ends that can be factors in the pass game. Down Chase and facing a team in the Patriots that has struggled to cover tight ends, if Gesicki is active the Bengals could run heavy in 12 personnel, forcing the Patriots to match up both tight ends and possibly play more in their base defense.

While the Bengals deal with injuries and more on offense, the defense has struggled healthy or not. To compound those issues, it looks like defensive end Trey Hendrickson will miss this game after he didn't practice Wednesday and Thursday.

Cincinnati's defense isn't just bad - it's nearing historic levels. In the Super Bowl era, no team has ever finished ranked last in the NFL in passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, and points allowed. Entering this game the Bengals are just outside of that, ranking 31st against the pass but 32nd against the run and in scoring.

Given that, the Patriots should have multiple ways to attack the Bengals' defense. If there's one area in particular they can exploit, it's the Bengals' poor tackling - Cincinnati (even with a bye week) leads the NFL with 126 missed tackles this year. The next closest team is the Pittsburgh Steelers with 93, while only six other teams have missed more than 70. Whether it's running backs after handoffs or wide receivers after the catch, there should be plenty of chances for yards after contact.

That's brough up the question this week - it seems like the stage is set for Drake Maye to have the first 300-yard passing game of his career. It should also help that his top deep threat in Kayshon Boutte has been a full participant at practice the first two days of this week, and could be back after missing the last two games.

Is this the week? The opportunity should be there. But oddly enough, as bad as they've been the Bengals have only allowed one 300-yard passer this season (Bo Nix threw for 326 yards in a 28-3 win in Week 4). However, some of that may just be teams getting up on the scoreboard and deciding to run the ball. While they've allowed just the one 300-yard passing game, they've allowed an NFL-high five running backs to rush for over 100 yards in a game, with three of those five going for over 125.

It certainly seems like a big day should be in store for somebody on the Patriots' offense. The question is more, who?

The one thing this Bengals' defense does somewhat well is ball-hawk. They do have eight interceptions on the year, which ranks 11th in the NFL. As long as Maye doesn't put the ball in harms way in the passing game, he and the Patriots' offense should be able to pick their spots for 60 minutes.

As the Patriots decide how they'll attack this Bengals' offense, will bigger formations be a part of the plan? Last week the Patriots used six offensive linemen for the first time in a while by featuring backup interior lineman Ben Brown as an eligible tight end, and had success in doing so. Excluding kneeldowns they ran for 4.9 yards per play with Brown on the field, and just 2.5 per carry in regular personnel. Brown was also on the field for both rushing touchdowns.

In addition to that, the Patriots added a blocking tight end to the roster this week in C.J. Dippre. We'll see whether or not Dippre is active for the game this week, but if he is he'd add more muscle up front if the Patriots want to run the ball and get downhill.

Whether it's Brown, Dippre, more of Jack Westover at fullback, or somebody else, the Patriots may need that extra strength in their run game. For the past few weeks the team has used Tonga as a fullback, but with Milton Williams banged up, will the Patriots be more careful about his usage now that they need him for a bigger role on defense?

"Those are things we have to consider. But it's also – we have to do everything that we can do to try to put the pieces together to help us win," Vrabel said when asked that this week. "We just have to be able to play the game and put the guys where we expect them to – any sort of injury can occur on any play at any point in time in football. So, every play is critical."

Last week with the Patriots not playing on Sunday, football fans in New England got a chance to do some real standings-related scoreboard watching for the first time in a few years (not including draft implications). That continues this week with a game in the same window as the Patriots - the Indianapolis Colts at the Kansas City Chiefs.

This is the second leg of Kansas City's back-to-back against the top of the AFC standings, given they don't play the Patriots this year. Last week they were on the road and lost 22-19 to the Denver Broncos, dropping them to 5-5.

Meanwhile the Colts are coming off of a bye week at 8-2. They'll try to get back on pace with the Patriots and Broncos, who are 9-2. Denver is on its bye this week.

In terms of rooting interest, Patriots fans have to ask themselves a question - is it more important to get the No. 1 overall seed, or to see Kansas City not even in the postseason lurking as a Wild Card team?

This game is pivotal if the Chiefs are going to make a run. According to NFL.com Kansas City's playoff chances increase to 63% with a win, but drop all the way to 35% with a loss.

Plus, there's still plenty of football ahead. Here are the remaining games for all three teams to help inform your rooting interest this Sunday...

Colts:

at Chiefs
vs. Texans
at Jaguars
at Seahawks
vs. 49ers
vs. Jaguars
at Texans

Chiefs:

vs. Colts
at Cowboys
vs. Texans
vs. Chargers
at Titans
vs. Broncos
at Raiders

Broncos:

Bye
at Commanders
at Raiders
vs. Packers
vs. Jaguars
at Chiefs
vs. Chargers