Barth’s 5 Things: Patriots face short week test against Jets

It's that time of year again - the New England Patriots have their annual short week this week. They have just a three-day turnaround after Sunday's win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get ready for a divsional matchup with the 2-7 New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.

A short week against the Jets is, in some ways, familiar for Patriots fans. In the 16 years since Thursday Night Football became a regular fixture on each team's schedule the Patriots have faced the Jets four times, with a fifth TNF meeting in 2008 when the games were annually a part of the late season schedule. That makes the Jets the Patriots' most common opponent on Thursday nights. The Patriots are 3-2 in those games.

One of those losses came last year. After what looked like a promising start with a win over the Cincinnati Bengals and close loss to the Seattle Seahawks, the Patriots got blown out in the Meadowlands in a 24-3 game that foreshadowed what was to come the rest of the year.

This time around the Patriots are much more established. They'll also be at home, making this their first home Thursday Night Football game since 2022 and just their second since 2019. It's also their first home primetime game of any kind since Week 2 of the 2023 season (Sunday Night Football against the Miami Dolphins).

Even though this game looks lopsided on paper - the Patriots are the favorite on most sportsbooks by double-digits - the short week always presents a challenge. Divisional games do too - just look at what happened to the Buffalo Bills last week against the Miami Dolphins. The Jets also come in with some momentum, having won back-to-back games (with a bye week in between).

What do the Patriots need to do to avoid falling into those traps? Let's take a look in this week's '5 Things'...

The short week has been an issue for the Patriots beyond last year. Since 2020 the team is 2-4 on Thursday nights (they played two such games in 2022 including a Thanksgiving game). While being on the road so often is part of that (the travel day on Wednesday makes what is already a short week even shorter), it's generally a challenge for any team regardless of location, condensing what is normally a six-day preperation process down to three.

"Just running around here telling everybody it's Thursday, that's about it," Vrabel said on Monday when asked the key to shandling the short week. "That's about all you can do. And I've tried to do that to the best of my ability so far today. Just try to get physically recovered the best that we can. Tough game on the road. So, we'll try to do that and then just keep reminding everybody it's Thursday."

Vrabel also spoke about how important it was for the Patriots to quickly pivot from the Buccaneers win to get ready for the Jets.

"We tried to move on to the Jets as quickly as possible," Vrabel shared. "I think everybody was trying to move ahead as quickly as possible, whether that be some of the players or the coaches. So, that was something that we did. And again, we're lucky to have a fantastic video staff, great department that works well with the coaches and provides us with everything that we need."

From a gameplanning standpoint, as short week means less time to install new plays. That leaves teams leaning more on their basic core concepts and natural talent - something David Andrews discussed in-depth on this week's Patriots Hub Podcast.

That means the Patriots will need to rely more on technique and fundamentals. Look for the team to lean on veterans, especially on offense, in key spots. This could be a big game for players like Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, and Mack Hollins coming off of his big game agasinst Tampa.

On top of having a short week to prepare, this matchup doesn't come with the typical familiarity of a divisional matchup. Both teams come in with new coaching staffs, with the Jets led by former Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.

Additionally the Jets recently made significant changes to their roster, specifically on defense. Two of the players an opponent would typically base a gameplan around - cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quennin Williams - were dealt at the trade deadline.

While the Jets' general philosophy of being a man coverage-heavy, blitz-heavy defense will carry over, there's not a lot of data to go on as to what the defense will look lik without those players. With a Week 9 bye, the Jets have only played one game since the trade deadline, beating the Cleveland Browns 27-20 last week (although Gardner missed their Week 8 win over the Cincinnati Bengals).

"There's still going to be a three technique where Williams was, and there's still going to be a corner out there where Sauce was. I hope there's not, I hope there's only nine, but I don't think there's going to be," Vrabel said earlier this week when asked about the changes. "[Line]backers are fast, they all run, they're good edge players. I studied their edge players when they were coming out, and it's about what I thought that they would be. Very active, long, fast, ability to affect the quarterback in the middle pocket. And so, we'll have to block the front and make sure that the backers are covered up, or we'll have a tough time running the football."

The second level is where the Jets' more impact players are now. Edge rushers Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald IV are the team's leaders in terms of creating pressure, although McDonald has been on the injury report all week with a quad injury. Jamien Sherwood is the Jets' off-ball linebacker and plays with good range.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets' key player is clear. They are a run-first team, centered around star running back Breece Hall.

Hall has been one of the most explosive backs in the NFL. While his 4.8 yards per carry ranks 16th among qualified players, he's tied with MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor for the most 15-plus yard runs, with 15, despite having played one fewer game.

This is a strength-on-strength matchup, with the Patriots having one of the best run defenses in the NFL this year (fewest total yards allowed at 792, fourth-lowest yards per carry against at 3.8). Last week though there were a few instances where the Buccaneers running backs were able to extend plays, turning what should have been stuffed runs into small gains. Hall is the kind of player who can do more to take advantage of those situations if given the opportunity.

"They’re averaging over five yards of carry, a lot of explosive runs, whether that be with Breece [Hall] or the quarterback. Obviously, the big play potential," Vrabel noted this week when asked about the style of the Jets' rushing attack. "Those are all things that we'll have to try to defend, be able to tackle and certainly limit those space plays that Hall, when he gets into the second level, speed, but also his ability to make people miss."

As Vrabel mentions, the quarterback run game is a factor too. Among the players ranked ahead of Hall in yards per carry is Jets quarterback Justin Fields, who is tied with three other players (including Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson at 5.3 yards per carry. In particular he's been dangerous when scrambling, averaging 8.4 yards per carry compared to 3.2 yards per carry on designed runs, per PFF.

"Justin, we have to make him try to get past his first read," Vrabel noted this week.

The good news for the Patriots is they can send more resources at stopping the run than they typcially do, which should allow them to load the box. New York's pass game has not been good this year, ranking 30th in terms of yards per attempt and 32nd in total yards (that includes a Week 6 game in which they totaled negative-10 pass yards as a team).

On top of that leading receiver Garrett Wilson is not expected to play in the game. Josh Reynolds, who is their second-most inovled receiver production-wise, is also out. That leaves the Jets' top receiver as Tyler Johnson, who has caught 10 passes for 187 yards in eight games this year.. The team also added AD Mitchell at the trade deadline from the Colts.

When the Jets do throw the ball their top target on the field will be rookie tight end Mason Taylor. Tight ends have given the Patriots problems this year, but that has come at times with the Patriots paying more attention to their opponents wideouts.

Where the Jets are more of a threat to put up points? The return game. New York ranks third in the NFL averaging 28.8 yards per klick return and seventh averaging 13.6 yards per punt return, wich touchdowns in both phases last week.

On the other side of things, this matchup dictates the Patriots leaning on their run game. The Jets rank in the bottom third of the league against the run this season, allowing 4.5 yards per carry to opponents.

The question is, who is running the ball? For the second week in a row, the Patriots are banged up at running back.

We already know they'll be without Rhamondre Stevenson, which was confirmed on Wednesday's injury report. Terrell Jennings is also questionable.

In all likelyhood, the Patriots will need to lean on TreVeyon Henderson once again in this one. While he's coming off of a big game it's also on a short week, when he had 15 touches following 18 the week before - the two most involved games of his NFL career. Long-term it's probably best for the Patriots to not use Henderson as a feature back, but they may not have a choice in this stretch.

What things look like behind Henderson are also a question. If Jennings can go, the team could eleveate a practice squad running back - likely D'Ernest Johnson - and be at the three backs they've carried all season.

If he can't go, things get more complicated. Would the Patriots elevate two running backs, putting little depth behind Henderson? There's also the matter of other positions that could use those spots - the Patriots will have just one true tight end active with Austin Hooper out. They've also typically used one spot - as was the case last week with Darius Harris - to fill a core special teams role.

Personnel-wise, there will be tough decisions for the team to make ahead of this game. Overall though, it sets Henderson up for potentially the most involved game of his career.

Finally, this week the Patriots will debut their new 'Rivalry' uniforms. Initially shown back in August, they are part of an NFL-wide program that will go division-to-division over the next few years.

The jerseys include some new unique elements, as well as nods to past Patriots uniforms. Most notably, the number font is supposed to relate to the 1990s Bledsoe-era jerseys. It's also the first time the Patriots will wear a white helmet with a blue jersey. You can find more info on the jerseys here.

Gillette Stadium will also have a different look for this game. That includes new field art, with fully painted end zones for the first time ever for a Patriots game at Gillette Stadium, and the first time for the Patriots since 1990.