Barth’s 5 Things: Patriots try to extend winning streak against roller coaster Falcons team

The New England Patriots only had two instances of back-to-back home games on their schedule this year. They split the first, losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers then beating the Carolina Panthers back in September. This week they'll have another shot at a sweep - after beating the Cleveland Browns last week they host the Atlanta Falcons this week at Gillette Stadium.

This is a Falcons team that is one of the hardest to get a read on through the first half of the NFL season. Their resume includes a 10-point win over the Buffalo Bills and loss to a strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that was a last-second field goal away from overtime, but also blowout losses at home to the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins.

Multiple factors have contributed to the up-and-down nature of the Falcons' season so far. We'll get into how those factors could impact this Sunday's game, plus key matchups and a look ahead to the trade deadline in this week's '5 Things'...

As this Patriots team goes for its sixth win in a row, that homefield advantage could loom large. The Falcons' home/road splits have garnered attention this year, but the real notable split is the team playing indoors versus outdoors. Their best road performance came against the Minnesota Vikings - a team that plays indoors. The Falcons won that game 22-6.

Prior to last week, the Falcons were 2-2 with an average scoring margin of plus-7.5 when playing indoors this year, and 0-2 with a scoring differential of minus-20 when playing outside. Granted, they did suffer a bad loss indoors last week but that was without Penix, and the indoor half of the splits aren't as relevant to this week's game, which will be played outside.

It may not be as simple as just weather, either. The two outdoor games the Falcons played this year were in different conditions - temps were in the high 80s when they played in Charlotte in late September, then later played on a 60-degree night in San Francisco in mid-October. Conditions this Sunday will be closer to that San Francisco game, albeit during the day. The forecast is for a partially cloudy day temps in the low 50s and little wind.

If it's not the weather, what could cause the split? It could be a home/road thing and the Falcons just locked in against the Vikings, or it could be a mental thing for this roster. Whatever it is, the Patriots should have it playing to their advantage on Sunday.

The Falcons' 34-10 home loss to the Dolphins last week was an outlier for their indoor/outdoor splits, but the team was hardly at full strength for that one. Many of those injuries could linger into this week.

First and foremost there's the quarterback position. Michael Penix is dealing with a bone bruise in his knee, and missed last week's game. Kirk Cousins played in his place and struggled to make an impact.

Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said this week he felt good about the way Penix was trending towards returning. However, Penix was limited at practice both Wednesday and Thursday. On the Patriots' side, that means preparing for both quarterbacks.

"There's more mobility and which hand you're going to use to match," Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel explained this week, referring to the fact that Penix is a lefty. "We'll practice both ways, and we'll have to make sure that one's a little bit more mobile than the other, and then be ready to go. I think that the concepts are similar, but there'll be some different play styles that are different between obviously Michael and Kirk.

Whoever is at quarterback could have a limited cast around him. Wide receiver Drake London missed last week with a hip injury, and was limited in practice this week. So was tight end Kyle Pitts, who is dealing with an ankle injury. Up front, starting left tackle Jake Matthews was added to the injury report on Thursday with an ankle injury.

Defensively the Falcons are banged up too. Edge rusher Leonard Floyd and defensive tackle Zach Harrison both missed Wednesday's practice and were limited on Thursday. Edge rusher Jalon Walker and safety Jessie Bates III were limited all week, and cornerback Billy Bowman was a late addition and limited on Thursday.

Even if some of these players play, it looks like they won't be 100%. Without the right adjustments, could the Patriots end up seeing a Falcons' team similar to the one that the Dolphins faced last week?

The Patriots' injury list isn't as long, but that doesn't mean it's insignificant. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday with a toe injury, putting his status for the game in doubt in a game where running the ball will be important (more on that in a bit).

If Stevenson can't go, that would further test an already-thin running back room. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson would likely be in for a leading role, with snaps then increasing for Terrell Jennings after he signed to the active roster this week from the practice squad. To add depth the Patriots would likely need to elevate one of the three practice squad running backs they signed this week - veteran D'Ernest Johnson is a name to watch there.

This is the kind of matchup real football fans tune in for. A strength-on-strength battle that will pit the Falcons' run game - led by Bijan Robinson - against the Patriots' stout run defense.

The Patriots' run defense has been dominant over the first half of the season. They're allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, which is the second-lowest total in the NFL. That's come from a consistent effort, as they haven't allowed a single running back to gain more than 50 yards in a game this year. Their 46 tackles for a loss rank third in the NFL, as does their 20.8% run stuff rate.

Now they'll get their biggest test in Robinson, who has been one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NFL this season. Asked what challenges Robinson presents earlier this week, Vrabel began his answer simply by stating "many."

"Many, many. I think if there's any crack, he's going to test our edge," Vrabel explained. "He's going to test our wall, and he's going to test everything we do about having guys swarming to the football. There have been some good defenses that he's been able to gain yards against. In their three victories, they averaged 186 yards a game on the ground, and it's not like they're manufacturing a lot. Not a lot of those are the quarterback; it's Bijan and [Tyler] Allgeier."

'Swarming to the football' should be one of if not the biggest point of emphasis for the Patriots. Robinson leads the NFL in both missed tackles forced (46) and yards after contact (4.4 per rush). If a broken tackle allows him room in the open field with no other defenders nearby, he has the speed to quickly pull away and create explosive plays.

The Patriots' tackling has been significantly improved since a rough stretch at the start of the season. Against Robinson, they'll need to continue to tackle at a high level. In addition to the players on the line and setting the 'wall' that Vrabel talked about, this is a big spot for Robert Spillane as a second-level clean-up crew.

After having success against a strong Browns defense last week, Drake Maye and the Patriots get another tough test in the Falcons. The Falcons have allowed the fewest passing yards in the league and rank fourth in defensive yards per attempt at 5.2.

That success starts up front. The Falcons are averaging 2.49 seconds to get pressure on the quarterback, which ranks second in the league just a hundredth of a second behind the Houston Texans. What makes things tricky is that pressure can come from multiple spots. On third downs in particular, the team will send exotic Cover-0 blitzes.

Linebacker Kaden Elliss (brother of current Patriots linebacker Christian Elliss) leads the team with 17 pressures so far this year. Edge rusher Leonard Floyd ranks second with 16 pressures, and then defensive tackles Ruke Orhorhoro and Zach Harrison are tied with 14.

While the whole offensive line will be tested, one player to watch in particular is Will Campbell. After battling with future Hall of Famer Myles Garrett last week Campbell has a more manageable matchup this week between Floyd and rookies James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker. How will he bounce back?

On the back end, the Falcons' secondary is led by cornerback A.J. Terrell and safety Jessie Bates III. Terrell in particular has gotten off to a very hot start this season. Among cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps this year Terrell ranks tied for second allowing just 1.3 average yards of separation when targeted according to Next Gen Stats, and he's only being targeted on about 10% of such snaps.

In the slot, rookie Billy Bowman has been a factor for Atlanta. His 59.9 passer rating against is 13th in the NFL among cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps.

This could be another week where the Patriots need to lean on the run game. Atlanta ranks 23rd in the NFL in that regard defensively, allowing 4.6 yards per carry. The Patriots should have a good chance to get downhill, as no team in the NFL has run more plays out of light boxes (less than seven players) than the Falcons. Of course, not having Rhamondre Stevenson could make that less simple than it sounds.

This week marks the final games before the NFL trade deadline hits on Tuesday. That means the last chance for the market to shift before any deals get done. With the Patriots in position to be buyers, those changes are worth noting for Patriots fans.

What can change? Teams sitting on the bubble could be swayed to be buyers or sellers with a loss. That's somewhere the Patriots could potentially help themselves out this week, against a 3-4 Falcons team.

Players getting hurt can also be a factor. Injuries can impact which players become available, and could add new buyers to the market for a certain position.

While the trade deadline discourse has been thoroughly discussed from week-to-week, it changes after each week's round of games. What's in store around the league this week?