Milliken: The Results Are Starting To Show For Roman Anthony

When you’re the #1 prospect in all of baseball, it feels like the world expects you to change the fortunes of a franchise the second you make your debut. For Roman Anthony, due to a combination of adjusting to a new level and some unlucky batted ball luck, his surface stats were dragging a bit, but everything underneath the hood screamed a breakout was coming. Over the last handful of games, it seems like the Roman Empire is finally arriving.

Before last night’s game was suspended, he was able to extend his hitting streak to 5 games on an RBI double while showing off his elite bat speed once again (75 MPH, has averaged 74 MPH on the season, 81st Percentile). Over that stretch, he’s currently slashing .450/.450/.650/1.100 with 4 doubles. Interestingly enough, he hasn’t walked once during that period, despite rocking a 13.3 BB% since being called-up.

It shouldn’t shock anyone that Alex Cora has gone out of his way a few times now to highlight how “outstanding” Anthony’s at-bats have been. It’s no coincidence that he’s been slotted into the #2 hole for four straight games. With Rafael Devers gone, the baton is being passed to the guy who should be the best hitter on the team for years to come, and like every other challenge so far, Anthony doesn’t look phased by it one bit.

Anthony hasn’t yet qualified for any of Baseball Savant’s hitting metrics, but the early preview of his page looks just like his Triple-A work. His .359 xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-base Average) would rank in the 78th percentile, tied with his locker neighbor, Alex Bregman. In terms of Average Exit Velocity, Anthony’s 92.3 MPH mark would be in the 94th percentile, tied with Jonathan Aranda. It feels like everything Anthony hits is screaming off the bat. Why? Because his Barrel% is sitting at 14% and his Hard-Hit% is at 48.8%.

Beyond Anthony’s quality of contact, the lefty’s patience at the plate hasn’t faltered against better competition. His 18.9 Chase% would leave him with the 10th-best mark in the game. That’s led to his fair share of walks, with a 13.3 BB% that would finish in the 92nd percentile.

So, while there are plenty of things for Anthony to work on between his K% (26%), being a bit more aggressive in the zone, and some early struggles against lefties (.438 OPS vs. LHP, .802 against RHP), there are a lot of positive signs for someone still getting their feet wet at the highest level. If you're hoping for more homers, it's only a matter of time, with his Expected HR Total already being between 2 or 3 in every other AL East park. Even on the defensive side of things, he’s racked up 3 Defensive Runs Saved and 2 Outs Above Average. Not too bad for just over 100 defensive innings.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the Red Sox handle things with Anthony and the rest of the outfield in the coming days. With Masataka Yoshida not too far off, the Red Sox won’t be able to keep sticking Anthony at DH like they have in 4 out of the last 5 games. Does that signal a trade? Maybe. But something is going to have to give sooner than later with the current log jam.

Either way, Anthony is looking the part so far, even if his .219.233/.359/.693 line in 20 games (75 PA) isn’t popping off the page yet. He’s going to be a major factor in how much noise this team will make in the second half, even if that’s an unfair expectation for him at only 21. The front office has put that pressure on him, but if he keeps swinging the bat like he has, the results are eventually going to be there.