The decision that torpedoed the Red Sox came from a ‘computer model’
Rafael Devers’ departure could be traced back to one critical decision — which wasn’t even made by a human being.
Dec 9, 2024; Dallas, TX, USA; Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow speaks with the media
at the Hilton Anatole during the 2024 MLB Winter Meetings.
Turbulence has defined the first half of the Boston Red Sox' 2025 season, and the problem could be traced back to a single decision -- that wasn't even made by a human.
In case you missed it last Friday, ESPN's Jeff Passan dropped an expansive inside look at the debacle that the Red Sox have been behind the scenes. The mess ultimately led to dumping Rafael Devers and his exorbitant contract, in exchange for an underwhelming package of players. But the move that sparked this powder keg was the Sox deciding that Devers should play designated hitter.
It's not unreasonable to suggest that Devers would make that move eventually, but the issue is how the team decided it in the first place, and how they handled it internally. According to Passan, it was not chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, or manager Alex Cora, or even a human being that made this decision. It was their "computer model":
When Devers showed up at spring training, the team broached the idea of him shifting to designated hitter. Their computer model said the best version of the 2025 Red Sox would feature reigning Minor League Player of the Year Kristian Campbell at second base, Bregman at third and Devers at DH. Devers was livid. A player's position is part of his identity. He was a third baseman. Beyond that, though, was a breach in the trust implicit in a contract of Devers' magnitude.
This came after the Red Sox had signed Alex Bregman, and apparently told Devers initially that Bregman would play second base. But they ultimately decided to listen to the computer and park Campbell at second, which shifted Bregman back to his natural position at third base, and Devers to DH.
On paper, it was certainly a better idea to play Bregman, a Gold Glove winner, at third, while making Devers a permanent DH. But the way the Red Sox communicated this move is what upset Devers, and now feels like it was the beginning of the end. And the almost-pathological dependence on computer models is an approach that may need to be adjusted.
Per Passan: "The front office's tack reinforced the feeling in the clubhouse that the organization's reliance on analytics for decision-making had come at the expense of productive interpersonal communication."
Photo by Jaiden Tripi/Getty ImagesRafael Devers
Passan later made the assertion that had the computer not told the Red Sox to put Campbell at second base, it's possible none of this would've happened. Devers would still be in a Red Sox uniform. Campbell could have taken more time to marinate in the minors, instead of struggling at both the plate and in the field before being sent down to Worcester.
Instead, the Devers disaster may have torpedoed the season before it could ever get rolling. The Red Sox have subtracted an All-Star bat from their lineup, and it doesn't seem to be the classic "addition by subtraction" they were hoping for yet. The Sox are 3-3 since trading Devers, averaging only 3.2 runs per game in that span.
All because Breslow couldn't overrule his computer overlords.
