The path to double-digit wins for the Patriots lies in one of Mike Vrabel’s early goals

When the New England Patriots' schedule was released on Wednesday night, the prognostications were mainly positive. Many have the team in the conversation for double-digit wins (including yours truly, 10-7), which is a lofty expectation for a team that won just four games a year ago.

Some of that may be more about the opponents on the schedule than the Patriots themselves. Of the Patriots' 14 opponents this year, betting odds have eight of those teams expected to finish under .500 at this point. The teams with the seven-lowest win totals in the NFL are all on the Patriots' schedule. In contrast, only two teams on the Patriots' schedule have a double-digit win total (Bills, Ravens).

Of course, playing bad teams isn't a guaranteed win. The Patriots have lost more than their fair share of 'winnable' games over the last two years.

Back at his introductory press conference in January, new head coach Mike Vrabel cited that trend as one of the first things the team needs to turn around.

"We just want to be good enough to take advantage of bad football. That's where we're going to start," he said when asked about the identity of the program he's working to build. "That's what I've tried to tell all the players is right now - I don't know if we're good enough to take advantage of bad football. I'm unsure. Like we're undefeated right now, but if we can just work towards taking advantage of bad football and being good enough to, when somebody makes a mistake, capitalizing on it and not being the ones that make the mistakes, and focusing on the little things and the details and helping them do their job better, that's a great place to start."

Simply 'taking advantage of bad football' could go a long way for the Patriots. Two obvious examples of 'bad football' are penalties and turnovers, and the Patriots will face multiple teams that struggled with both last year.

In terms of penalties, the Patriots will face the three most penalized teams in the league last year, four of the top five, and seven of the top 10 (including two matchups each against the Jets and Dolphins from that group). Only five of the Patriots' 14 opponents ranked in the top half of the league in fewest penalties against in 2024.

Looking at turnovers, the Patriots will face the teams with the three worst turnover margins last year, and the three that committed the most turnovers overall. Like with penalties, only five of the Patriots' opponents ranked in the top half of the league of fewest giveaways last year.

They also didn't do a great job of taking the ball away when teams gave them a chance. The Patriots had just 12 total takeaways in the NFL last year, which ranked 31st.

Keeping that all in mind, part of a team taking advantage of bad football is not playing bad football themselves. In order to capitalize on their opponents mistakes the Patriots will also need to limit their own. Their 2024 rankings aren't favorable in these categories either - they committed the 13th-most penalties (111), had the 10th-most giveaways (23), and finished 28th in turnover margin (-11).

Directly capitalizing off of turnovers will be important too. Last year the Patriots scored a touchdown on just 18.2% of their drives following a forced turnover, which was tied for the third-lowest rate in the league. With an easier schedule and upgraded defense the Patriots should have more chances to force turnovers this year, but will also need to do a better job of playing complementary football on offense when the defense does make those plays.

Those chances should be especially plenty early on, when factoring in the quarterback uncertainty the Patriots will face. Their first eight games include matchups with the Steelers (Week 3), Saints (Week 6), and Browns (Week 8) - all teams without a clear starting quarterback coming out of the offseason. They'll also likely face at least one more rookie quarterback in that stretch in first-overall pick Cam Ward with the Tennessee Titans (Week 7).

In order to get to that 10-win mark (which would most likely come with a playoff spot) the Patriots would need to not just take advantage of bad football, but do so consistently. Growing pains with a new coaching staff and overhauled roster could certainly cause hiccups, and as always injuries are a looming variable.

Given that uncertainty 10 wins - while on the table - may not be the most likely outcome. Still, if Vrabel can get that first pillar of his program in place the Patriots could very well be on their way to a record right around .500 - something they haven't come close to the last two years.