NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Reacting to the Combine
Coming out of the NFL Scouting Combine last week, it’s time for our first NFL first-round mock draft of the year.
As the calendar flips to March, the NFL offseason hits full gear. This past weekend’s NFL Combine helped answer key questions about over 300 NFL Draft prospects.
The Combine also is a chance for key decision makers to get together and talk, setting the groundwork for the roster moves that are on the way. Rumors and reports coming out of the Combine help set the tone for free agency, which starts in two weeks.
Putting all that together, where do things stand we have a decent idea of where things stand before the big time decisions start to get made. With that, let’s kick off the week will our first full NFL Mock Draft of the season, to set the table for what’s to come.
NFL Combine Standouts: QB/RB/WR | TE | OL | DL/LB | CB/S
First, a few big-picture observations. After an offense-heavy year last year, this year’s first NFL Mock Draft is split evenly between offense and defense with 16 players each. It also includes just two skill position players in the top 10, and six total – reflecting the way those positions are stacked in this class.
Also, those who regularly follow our mock drafts know I tend to make multiple trades and jump around the board (arguably to a fault). This mock draft only contains three trades (including one for the Patriots), a reflection of the fact that the value for moving picks in the first round of a weaker draft usually lessens the impact of making deals (especially in a draft where all 32 teams own their first-round pick).
With that out of the way, let’s get started…
1. Titans: OLB Abdul Carter, Penn State
Carter is looking like he is clearly the best player in this draft. While the Titans need a quarterback, their entire roster is in need of a reset. President of football opps Chad Brinker told reporters earlier this offseason that the team won’t pass on a “generational talent” and Carter is as close as there is to a player fitting that description in this class.
2. Browns: QB Cam Ward, Miami
Kevin Stefanski can’t be feeling good after his offensive finished ranked last in the league in scoring in 2024. He’s entering his fifth year in Cleveland, with just one playoff win coming all the way back in 2020. Things need to change quickly, and while Travis Hunter is an attractive option (the Browns said this week they view Hunter as a wide receiver), no position can impact change faster than quarterback. Given their last attempt at adding a veteran quarterback was a disaster, this time they go to the draft. Add Ward’s name to the legendary Browns QB jersey.
3. Giants: QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Again, we have a team with key decision-makers seemingly on the hot seat. Plus, as of Sunday the Giants don’t have a single quarterback officially under contract for 2025. After missing out on Matthew Stafford and failing to bring in a veteran, they take Sanders to try and turn things around quickly.
4. Patriots: WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado
While the Patriots would need a lot of things to go their way for Hunter to make it to the fourth overall pick, it feels more likely now than it did before the Combine. With the Browns and Giants striking out in the veteran quarterback market, the Patriots are able to take a player they view as both the “best cornerback…and best wideout in the draft” according to MassLive.
Assuming the Patriots are going to have Hunter focus primarily on just one side of the ball, wide receiver would make the most sense. Mike Vrabel spoke this week how difficult it can be to get a game-changing wide receiver beyond the draft – a reality reflected by this year’s dwindling veteran market at the position. Hunter has that sort of upside, especially as a ‘Z’ in Josh McDaniels’ system. Plus, the team already has an elite cornerback with Christian Gonzalez, and is potentially considering mid-round players at the position.
The one thing about this pick is it goes against the ‘trenches, trenches, trenches’ Patriots staffers have seemingly telegraphed leading up to the offseason. In this Mock Draft scenario the Patriots are able to sign Ravens tackle Ronnie Stanley – a reported “top target” of the team according to the Boston Herald. Plus, they’re not done in the first round either – stick around…
5. Jaguars: CB Will Johnson, Michigan
Jacksonville doesn’t have much at the cornerback position. With Hunter off the board they grab Johnson, who doesn’t have a ton of buzz after missing most of the 2024 season but was one of the most impressive players in the nation during Michigan’s National Championship run in 2023.
6. Raiders: OL Will Campbell, LSU
Tom Brady’s influence allows the Raiders to win the sweepstakes for one of the top free agent quarterbacks (Rodgers, Darnold, Cousins, etc). The team uses this pick to get the quarterback some protection.
Campbell’s arm length may scare some teams off at tackle, but for the Raiders he can start off at left guard where they have an immediate need, and then if they feel he’s up for it he can move to left tackle in the future. Current starting left tackle Kolton Miller is allowed the most pressures he has since he was a rookie in 2024, is entering a contract year and will turn 30 in October. He’s not a guaranteed long-term option at the position.
7. Jets: WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
The Jets lose out on the top quarterback sweepstakes, but don’t reach for one here either. Instead they look to make it easier on whoever is under center, whether it be a lesser free agent signing or a Day 2 pick. Having McMillan on the outside would be a strong complement to Garrett Wilson in the slot.
8. Panthers: LB Jalon Walker, Georgia
The Panthers have a very strong franchise history of inside linebackers, but after releasing Shaq Thompson don’t have a clear answer at the position. Enter Walker, who is a true multi-dimensional player at the position and really helped his stock with a strong performance as the Combine this week.
9. Saints: DT Mason Graham, Michigan
This represents a bit of a drop for Graham, who weighed in at the Combine 24 pounds lighter than he was listed at Michigan. Still he stays in the top 10, as the Saints (who also sign a QB in this Mock Draft scenario) pair him with 2023 first-round pick Bryan Bresee as new head coach Kellen Moore looks to replicate the dominant defensive front he saw every day while working for the Eagles.
10. Colts (from Bears): TE Tyler Warren, Penn State
Bears get:
–14th overall pick
–80th overall pick (3rd round pick)
Colts get:
–10th overall pick
–235th overall pick (7th round)
A big, rangy tight end like Warren would be a great player to help make things easier for quarterback Anthony Richardson. The Colts move up into the top 10 to get him. The Bears win this trade 381-371 on the trade chart.
11. 49ers: OT Josh Simmons, Ohio State
Among many other needs, the 49ers need to start thinking about life after Trent Williams – who will turn 37 this summer. Simmons has top-10 talent, but a severe knee injury is expected to hold him out for some if not all of his rookie year. The Niners take advantage and get him now, knowing they have time before they’ll need him to play a significant role.
12. Cowboys: RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State
The Cowboys seemingly have playmakers and/or recent high draft picks at just about every impact position, and still can’t get over the hump. How about trying something else, and supporting Dak Prescott and the passing game with a capable ground attack (Dallas ranked 30th in the NFL averaging 4.0 yards per carry last year)? After a bit of a fall, Jeanty gets to head back to the Dallas area where he was a high school football star.
13. Dolphins: OT Armand Membou, Missouri
Membou is one of the most talented tackles in this class. The biggest thing holding him back is he plays the less valuable of the two tackle positions, as a career right tackle at Mizzou. For a Dolphins team with a lefty quarterback and plenty of certainty at both tackle spots though, he’s a unique fit. They can keep him on the right side as Tua Tagovailoa’s blindside protector to replace Austin Jackson (who had a season-ending knee injury last year), or move him to the left side where he would once again be a front-side blocker.
14. Bears (from Colts): OL Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas
Banks could end up as a tackle or guard in the NFL, but the Bears need help across their offensive line. The Bears will have a spot for him wherever they think he’s best, as they look to do a better job of protecting Caleb Williams.
15. Falcons: OLB Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M
Stewart was one of the most impressive players at the NFL Combine this week, and should see a rise up draft boards as a result. He ends up in the top half of the first round here, as the Falcons get the dynamic pass rusher they were hoping to add in the Matthew Judon trade last summer.
16. Cardinals: OLB Mykel Williams, Georgia
Baron Browning is a pending free agent, leaving the Cardinals without a primary rusher off the edge. They get that guy in Williams, who is more of a project player than some of the other first-round pass rushers but has a high ceiling.
17. Bengals: DT Walter Nolen, Ole Miss
The Bengals need to sure up the interior of their defense, especially when it comes to their pass rush. Nolen has the power and athleticism to push the pocket from the middle, and can hold his own against the run as well.
18. Seahawks: DL Derrick Harmon, Oregon
The Seahawks have already started putting together a solid defensive front, but after watching the Super Bowl in a copycat league, they continue to add impact players up front. Mike Macdonald gets another player to get creative with in an athletic defensive lineman in Harmon. Guard could also be an option here, but the Seahawks should be able to address that later.
19. Buccaneers: LB Jihaad Campbell, Alabama
Even if pending free agent Lavonte David returns, he’s 35 years old and not the player he once was. That leaves the Buccaneers with a hole in the middle of their defense. They’re also thin at outside linebacker, and Campbell has proven he can make plays in that role as well. After a strong Combine, he jumps from a fringe-first-round pick into the top 20.
20. Broncos: TE Colston Loveland, Michigan
Heading into free agency the Broncos don’t have a starting-caliber tight end on the roster. It’s also a down year for the position in free agency. So, they turn to the draft and add Loveland, whose explosive athleticism and ability after the catch would be a great fit with quarterback Bo Nix.
21. Steelers: WR Luther Burden III, Missouri
Right or wrong, the biggest questions about Burden heading into the draft are about his focus and mental stamina. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers have a tremendous history of getting buy-in from such players. They also happen to need a true second option at receiver opposite George Pickens.
22. Chargers: DT Kenneth Grant, Michigan
The Chargers were one of the worst teams against the run in the NFL last year, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. Plus, they only have two defensive linemen currently under contract for 2025 with most of last year’s group hitting free agency. To start re-building the group, Jim Harbaugh drafts one of his former Michigan players in Grant, who projects as a high-level nose tackle.
23. Packers: CB Jahdae Barron, Texas
With Jaire Alexander reportedly involved in trade talks, it’s possible the Packers will need a new top cornerback. There’s no clear answer on the roster, so they address the premium need in the draft.
24. Vikings: S Malaki Starks, Georgia
The Vikings need to start preparing for life after Harrison Smith. Their other starting safety, Cam Bynum, is set to hit free agency. Minnesota takes advantage of Starks falling down the board to get the next player up at the position.
25. Texans: WR Matthew Golden, Texas
After taking a step back offensively last year, the Texans can’t afford to continue to slide. However that will be tough with Stefon Diggs a pending free agent coming off a torn ACL and Tank Dell expected to miss the 2025 season and perhaps more after suffering a severe knee injury in December. To make sure C.J. Stroud has options they draft a Houston native in Golden, whose explosive play style would complement Nico Collins nicely. A guard could make sense here too.
26. Patriots (from Rams): OLB James Pearce Jr., Tennessee
Rams get:
–38th overall pick (2nd round)
–77th overall pick (3rd round)
Patriots get:
–26th overall pick
If the Patriots are really going to be ‘aggressive’ this offseason, trading back up into the first round – something they tried to do last year – would be an effective way to achieve that. The Rams have just two top-100 picks and need to add youth to their roster, while the Patriots have four top-100 picks and need top end talent. That leads both teams to make this swap, which is similar to the 2020 trade when the Patriots moved back and took Kyle Dugger.
After moving back into the first round the Patriots get Pearce after a projected slide. Pearce is primarily a speed rusher (as his Combine testing showed) and that may lead some teams that look for more staunch edge players to move him down their boards. That being said speed, quickness, and explosiveness are valued more in Vrabel’s defensive system, and the Patriots should be able to maximize Pearce’s skillset earlier than some other teams.
27. Ravens: OT Josh Conerly Jr., Oregon
As we mentioned above, in this mock draft scenario the Ravens lose starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley in free agency. They can’t afford to leave Lamar Jackson’s blindside unprotected, so they draft Conerly here as his replacement.
28. Lions: OLB Mike Green, Marshall
This represents a bit of a fall for Green based on current projections, but we’ve seen small school prospects go similarly below projections in recent years. Teams will also likely be looking closely at his dismissal from Virginia in 2022. Here he ends up in Detroit, where he’ll get to rush opposite Aidan Hutchinson.
29. Browns (from Commanders): DE Nic Scourton, Texas A&M
Commanders get:
–DE Myles Garrett
Browns get:
–DT Jonathan Allen
–29th overall pick
–61st overall pick
Having some fun with this one, because why not?
Myles Garrett and Jonathan Allen have both requested trades this offseason, so why not find a deal that makes things work for both sides? The Commanders super charge their defense as they look to capitalize in Jayden Daniels’ rookie contract, while the Browns get a significant return for Garrett. Back in early February Dianna Russini reported the Browns could potentially get a first-round pick, Day 2 pick, and player for Garrett, and that’s what they get here.
After trading away Garrett, the Browns get right to work rebuilding their defensive line. They replace one Texas A&M pass rusher with another, drafting Scourton.
30. Bills: S Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina
A wide receiver could make sense for the Bills here, but they are in desperate need of safety help. Emmanwori’s elite athleticism should allow him to handle multiple assignments, which is usually needed of safeties in Buffalo’s defensive scheme.
31. Chiefs: OT Aireontae Ersery, Minnesota
The Chiefs simply can’t allow Patrick Mahomes blindside to go on unprotected like it was in the Super Bowl. There’s a strong chance this pick ends up being whoever is the best tackle left on the board, which in this case is Ersery.
32. Eagles: G Tyler Booker, Alabama
Eagles GM Howie Roseman said it himself last week, he has “an unhealthy obsession” with drafting linemen. With players set to hit free agency on both sides of the ball the real question is whether he goes offensive or defensive line here. Given Booker is the kind of big, physical, SEC, plays-with-a-mean-streak lineman the Eagles have targeted in recent years, he gets the nod here to replace outgoing right guard Mekhi Becton.
