Marc Bertrand: What’s the Patriots record if Drake Maye started Week 1?

On Friday's edition of Zolak & Bertrand, Marc Bertrand asked how many wins the Patriots would have if they started Drake Maye in Week 1.

Marc Bertrand: 

I think it was a couple of days ago someone was asking.... I think it may have been a caller or Felger asking a caller right after we got off. I heard it on my way out of the building. How many games would this team have won so far if Tom Brady was their quarterback? You know what I immediately went to? Forget Tom Brady. Tom Brady's not walking through that door. We're finally about to start shutting the door on the Tom Brady era.  

Scott Zolak: 

Are you? 

Marc Bertrand: 

I think so. I think we're ready to do it. I think we've got our guy now. I think we got our guy. 

Scott Zolak:

I’d love to have our guy. I’d shut the door too. 

Marc Bertrand:

So, what are they with Drake Maye if he had started Week1? I was not calling for him to start Week 1. This is not me saying he should’ve, because we weren't saying that, but what if they did? Where would they be record wise? Do they win against Seattle with a couple more throws? 

Scott Zolak & Tim McKone: 

 Yes. 

Marc Bertrand: 

Do they win going against Cincinatti? 

Scott Zolak: 

He could have probably crapped his pants in that game, with it being his first start on the road in the NFL against Joe Burrow. 

Marc Bertrand: 

Do they win against Miami?  

Scott Zolak: 

Yes.  

Marc Bertrand: 

So they're 3-2, not 1-4 with Drake Maye as the starting quarterback.

The day New England Patriots fans have been waiting on for over five months is almost here. On Sunday, third overall pick Drake Maye will start his first NFL game, as the Patriots welcome the Texans to Gillette Stadium. 

For any quarterback - or NFL player - the first start isn’t easy. But for Maye, the opponent makes things a little bit tougher. This is a good Texans defense that comes in ranked fourth overall in the NFL through five weeks, fourth against the pass, and is generating the highest pressure rate in the league at 42 percent per Next Gen Stats. 

So, why start Maye this week against such a strong defense? “I would say there's never a perfect time to make a change,” head coach Jerod Mayo said this week. “Every defense that we play, whether it's the defensive ends or the defensive tackles, they all have the ability to rush and get after the quarterback. So, I don't think there's ever a perfect time."

“What I will say is this defense, we’re familiar with the defense,” Mayo added. “We've seen it, and he's prepared for this defense as if he was the starter. I just felt like this was the right time to do it.”

While the offense will do its best to support Maye, the defense faces its own tough challenge in this Texans’ offense. Even though the Texans will be without some key players on that side of the ball, it’s a diverse offense led by one of the best young quarterbacks in the game in C.J. Stroud. The Patriots will need to be aware of his ‘secondary’ weapons, who will be in bigger roles this week.

Schematically, this might be the most intricate game for the Patriots so far this year. Let’s look at some key areas to focus on in a Drake Maye-heavy edition of ‘5 Things.’

As mentioned above, the Texans are generating more pass rush pressure than any team in the NFL through five weeks. While they haven’t always turned that pressure into sacks (their 15 rank eighth), they still do a good job of turning up the heat on the opposing quarterback and putting passers under duress.

“We got to make sure we handle those edges. It's almost having two guys like [Nick] Bosa a little bit on the edges,” offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said this week. “So big challenge for us, from a protection standpoint.”

That pressure starts on the edge. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson make up one of the best pass rushing duos in the NFL. Hunter leads the NFL with 29 total pressures, while Anderson ranks tied for seventh with 23 per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Hunter and Anderson will put the Patriots’ tackles to the test. While both guys move around, in key spots expect Hunter to line up opposite right tackle Demontrey Jacobs and Anderson to work against left tackle Vederian Lowe.

The good news for the Patriots? This will be the first time this season they start the same tackle combination in back-to-back games.

At left tackle, Lowe returned from injury last week and showed no rust. He put up a clean game, with no pressures allowed or penalties called on him. The Patriots will need a similar effort from him on Sunday.

On the other side, Jacobs will make his third career start - the second at right tackle - against the veteran Hunter. Last week Jacobs allowed two pressures and was called for a penalty. If the Patriots are going to focus more of their help to one side, this is probably the spot.

Pressure off the edge isn’t the only thing the Patriots’ offense will have to worry about though. While the Texans’ ability to generate interior pressure hasn’t been as dominant, preventing interior pressure was something the Patriots struggled with last week in the first full game without David Andrews.

Nick Leverett filled in last week, and allowed 10 pressures per PFF. He’s also dealing with an injury right now, and has been limited all week with an ankle issue. If he struggles early, rookie practice squad center Bryan Hudson - who was elevated last week - could get a look.

Edge rushers get most of the attention in the modern NFL, because that’s where the most elite pass rushers play. At the same time though interior pressure can be more disruptive, because it’s much harder to scheme around. Allowing Maye to have a pocket to step up into will be important for the Patriots this week.

That covers Drake Maye having time to throw the ball. When he does, who is he throwing to?

Every quarterback has different preferences and tendencies, and Maye is no exception. His first start will offer good insight into which receivers and route concepts he likes throwing to the most.

The first player that comes to mind here is Pop Douglas. Douglas and Jacoby Brissett never seemed to get on the same page, and the second-year receiver didn’t seem like a major part of the Patriots’ offense through the first month. However, on skill alone he is one of their most explosive weapons and top playmakers, so for the offense to take a step forward he likely needs to be involved more.

Over the summer, Maye compared Douglas to current Indianapolis Colts receiver Josh Downs, who Maye played with at UNC in 2022. The two found a ton of success then, let’s see if he can replicate that success with Douglas now.

The other receiver to watch in regards to Maye is fellow rookie Ja’Lynn Polk. Throughout the first five games of the season it looked like there were opportunities for Polk to make plays, but Brissett failed to give him the ball. Now with Maye - who Polk worked with a good amount in the summer - can the Patriots start taking advantage of those opportunities?

Part of the benefit of making the change to Maye isn’t just to get the rookie quarterback exposure, but to be able to better evaluate and develop the other young players on offense. Chief among that group is Polk - the team’s second draft selection after Maye.

Maye finding his favorite targets will be important, but nothing helps a young quarterback out more than a strong running game. However, the Patriots could be short handed in that regard on Sunday.

Rhamondre Stevenson missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. That’s generally a sign a player isn’t going to play on Sunday - or at least will be extremely limited if they do.

It’s tough to tell what to make of Stevenson’s injury situation. He left last week’s game late after taking a helmet to the shin, but returned a few plays later and told reporters after the game it wasn’t a major issue. Now, he’s listed with a foot injury.

If Stevenson can’t go, that will put Antonio Gibson in the spotlight. Gibson has looked good early on this season in a more limited role, averaging 5.9 yards per carry on 35 carries.

Gibson should be able to give the Patriots a few explosive runs over the course of the game like Stevenson. Where the difference will be felt is on the remainder of the carries. Stevenson’s contact balance and run strength allow him to turn should-be minimal runs into medium gains, allowing the Patriots to stay ahead of schedule offensively. Will Gibson provide the same pop, especially when hit behind the line of scrimmage?

The Patriots could also look to feature another more power-style back to help make up the difference. If Stevenson can’t go, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kevin Harris elevated from the practice squad for this one.

Through five weeks the Texans passing game has run through wide receiver Nico Collins, who is the NFL’s leading receiver to this point. However Houston won’t have him in this game after he was placed on IR on Wednesday.

That elevates offseason trade acquisition Stefon Diggs to the top receiver spot for quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Patriots should be plenty familiar with Diggs from his previous four seasons in Buffalo.

With the Bills, Diggs was routinely a problem for the Patriots. He put up some monster games against the Pats, and was regularly a deciding factor in those matchups.

Now that he’s in Houston, Patriots cornerbacks coach Mike Pellegrino sees the same kind of threat. “He's still really good. So from that, it's just really where they put him in the offense. I know he could do some things that he's not necessarily doing over there,” Pellegrino said on Thursday. “With Nico Collins being out, he could play a little bit more backside. He could play in the slot. Look, this guy is just flat out [a] good football player, right? He's physical, he's savvy, he's still got his speed, he's quick. I mean, he's a good football player and he can catch the ball.”

“We get excited about these opportunities. I hope he gets excited to play against us, because we've had good battles,” Pellegrino added. “He's a great football player and I respect him very much, and his ability, and what he can do on the football field.”

Diggs is on a new team for this matchup, and the Patriots have a new cornerback. The gauntlet for Christian Gonzalez continues, and this week he’ll get a chance to face a guy that the franchise has struggled to stop time-and-time again. Can he prove to be the answer to Diggs they’ve needed?

Assuming Christian Gonzalez is able to limit Stephon Diggs, most of the Patriots’ coverage assignments logically fall into place from there. Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones should get the nod opposite speedy slot receiver Tank Dell, while Marco Wilson and whichever Jones isn’t in the slot will likely alternate against Xavier Hutchinson on the other boundary opposite Diggs.

There is one more player in the Texans’ passing game though that won’t be as simple to stop - tight end Dalton Schultz. Schutlz got off to a slower start last year but became a high-volume target for C.J. Stroud once Nico Collins went down last week.

The Patriots have had their issues with tight ends in the passing game this year (the 265 yards from tight ends against them is the sixth-most in the NFL). They’ll be down at least one safety in Jabrill Peppers. Meanwhile, Kyle Dugger’s status seems up in the air after he returned to practice on Thursday following a full week's absence last week that carried over to this Wednesday.

Who does that leave to cover Schultz, especially if Dugger doesn’t play? Rookie UDFA Dell Pettus has seen more coverage responsibilities in recent weeks, and could get the look against Houston. If so, he knows he has a tough test on his hands.

“I see a player who's physical. someone who's definitely been experienced (sic) and knows where he's supposed to be and knows what he's supposed to do,” Pettus told 98.5 The Sports Hub on Thursday when asked about scouting Schutlz. “And he's very savvy in his technique and his form. Definitely someone who cares about his work. So with that in mind, I mean, that just puts more of an emphasis in my mindset to make sure that I'm on my correct cues, make sure that my eyes are on the right place and just play Patriot football.”

Marte Mapu could be a factor here as well, after playing 100 percent of the Patriots’ defensive snaps last week in his return to action. It will also be interesting to see if the Patriots try a bigger cornerback on Schutlz at times to give him a different look. Isaiah Bolden would make the most sense in that role, but it is worth noting he was added to the injury report on Thursday.