What are realistic expectations for Drake Maye’s first NFL start?
Drake Maye will make his first NFL start this week against the Houston Texans. What should fans realistically expect to see from the third overall pick?
A new era begins in Foxboro this Sunday, when 2024 third-overall pick Drake Maye makes his first career start at quarterback for the New England Patriots. Given his draft standing and just the general hype around him, fans expectations for his career in New England are sky-high.
For the long-term, that’s fair. A player taken third overall – a quarterback no less – should be franchise changing.
At the same time, it’s unfair to expect that right away. While some quarterbacks have come in and dominated right away they’re the exception to the rule. As evidenced by this year’s rookie class, it can take a game or two for a quarterback to get his feet under him before he truly makes an impact.
At the start of October the overall stock of this class is high, but that wasn’t the case even just a few weeks ago. Remember, it took three weeks before a rookie quarterback threw his first touchdown pass. Here’s how each of this year’s first-round quarterbacks did in their first regular season start…
Caleb Williams (24-17 win vs. Titans): 14/29, 93 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 5 rushes, 15 yards
Jayden Daniels (37-20 loss @ Buccaneers): 17/24, 184 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 16 rushes, 88 yards, 2 TDs
Bo Nix (26-20 loss @ Seahawks): 26/42, 138 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 5 rushes, 35 yards, TD
None of the three put up particularly impressive passing numbers. Daniels and Nix were able to with their legs, something that Maye can do and should look to take advantage of this week to help himself in his debut.
Overall though, it takes time to develop as a passer in the NFL. Look at Jayden Daniels, who was already getting MVP buzz on the Monday Night Football broadcast this week. Daniels’ first two games – not just his debut – weren’t bad but certainly weren’t spectacular.
Maye likely won’t be immune to those growing pains. Plus, compared to his fellow rookies, he has arguably the weakest supporting cast of any of the first-round quarterbacks in this class.
In all likelihood, Maye’s first game won’t be indicative of his entire career outlook. For reference, here’s how the Patriots’ four other first-round quarterbacks did in their NFL debuts…
Jim Plunkett* (9/19/71, 20-6 win vs Raiders): 6/15, 127 yards, 2 TDs, INT
Tony Eason* (11/27/83, 26-3 win @ Jets): 13/27, 159 yards, INT
Drew Bledsoe* (9/5/93, 38-14 loss @ Bills): 14/30, 148 yards, 2 TDs, INT
Mac Jones* (9/12/21, 17-16 loss vs Dolphins): 29/39, 281 yards, TD
Plus, here are some other notable Patriots’ quarterbacks stat lines from their debuts…
Steve Grogan (11/2/75, 24-17 loss @ Cardinals): 14/34, 173 yards, TD, 2 INT
Scott Zolak (11/15/92, 37-34 win @ Colts): 20/29, 261 yards, 2 TDs, INT
Tom Brady (9/30/01, 44-13 win vs Colts): 13/23, 168 yards
Jimmy Garoppolo (9/11/16, 23-21 win at Cardinals): 24/33, 264 yards, TD
Jacoby Brissett (9/22/16, 27-0 win vs Texans): 11/19, 103 yards, rush TD
The lesson here? A quarterback’s debut is hardly fully indicative of the player they’ll become. Of course it goes deeper than just basic stats, but for instance if Maye puts up numbers similar to Brady’s debut, expect plenty of worried reactions (final score of the game aside). On the flip side, if he puts up Jones-like numbers, people might be doing backflips down Route 1. If Maye goes on to have the same career of either of those players? Opposite responses.
So, what should fans be looking for in Maye’s debut? The biggest thing is just flashes of talent. Consistency is often the last thing to come for quarterbacks in the NFL, but are there individual plays Maye makes that seem like they can be staples for him in the future?
That will be one thing head coach Jerod Mayo will be looking for. “Physically, look, this guy definitely gives us a chance to kind of get some of those off-schedule plays that you guys always see on TV,” Mayo noted when announcing the QB change on Wednesday.
Something else Mayo will likely be keeping a close eye on is what kind of mistakes Maye makes. There are undoubtably going to be growing pains for the 21-year-old – the question is can he use them as a learning experience. Mayo has talked about making sure players (and coaches) aren’t “mistake repeaters,” something that will be important for Maye early on.
Finally, which receivers look to have the best chemistry with Maye? As the Patriots build around Maye in the long-term, which players – if any – on this current offense should stay here growing with him? We highlighted that topic more in a post earlier this week.
It’s certainly not unfair to have high expectations for Drake Maye. But, heading into his debut it’s important to keep those expectations in the context of the long-term, not just one game.