Milliken: 5 thoughts on the Red Sox with 5 games left

• 2. Luis Guerrero and Zach Penrod have looked good.

  Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on X (formerly Twitter): "Give me as much Luis Guerrero as possible over the next two weeks. Please and thank you. pic.twitter.com/k3RJUx8ft1 https://t.co/hERkCmlW7W / X"

  Give me as much Luis Guerrero as possible over the next two weeks. Please and thank you. pic.twitter.com/k3RJUx8ft1 https://t.co/hERkCmlW7W

  Dating back to the All-Star break, the Red Sox bullpen has been a constant headache for anyone watching. The group has collapsed in historic fashion with the worst ERA in MLB at 5.73 and a franchise record 16 blown saves. Fortunately, Luis Guerrero and Zach Penrod have been two bright spots that could be important fixtures in 2025.

  Guerrero has appeared in 6 games (6.2 IP) since being called-up on September 7th and he’s still rocking a 0.00 ERA/1.22 FIP. He hasn’t had any trouble missing bats with 8 strikeouts and his control has been in check with just 1 walk allowed. He has given up 5 hits, but his velocity has brought a different element to the bullpen with his 4-seamer sitting at 97.4 MPH, which is the highest mark on the team.

  Penrod hasn’t been up as long, but Alex Cora hasn’t hesitated to use him since he made his debut last weekend against the Yankees. Across 3.2 IP over 5 outings, the lefty hasn’t given up a run and has picked up 3 strikeouts to only 1 walk. Similar to Guerrero, Penrod has faced his own control issues in the minors, so it’s been refreshing to see him fill the zone so far.

  It hasn’t been discussed enough, but with the Red Sox needing a bullpen makeover this offseason, the development of both arms is important. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin are on the verge of free agency, which will change the equation for finishing off games. Justin Slaten will factor into that conversation, but it’s hard to know what you’re going to get from the likes of Liam Hendriks, Garrett Whitlock, and the rest of the group.

  With all of that unrest, Guerrero and Penrod could help eat up the middle innings that have plagued this team the last two months. I still think Craig Breslow should be pursuing left-handed relief help, especially that can handle high-leverage spots, but it would be nice to have a second lefty that can work multiple innings and tops out at 99 MPH (AAA). Earlier this month, Cora made a point to say that velocity matters in the bullpen and it was going to be something they talked about over the winter.

  So far in 2024, the Red Sox bullpen ranks 11th in average fastball velocity, but the pitching staff is 17th overall. It’s going to be interesting to see if Breslow makes it a focus to be above those marks for next season. Not to mention, we all know Guerrero is a pure reliever, but if the Red Sox prioritize Penrod as starter depth once again, that could change the equation too.

• 3. Red Sox rotation has found itself in a major way down the stretch.

  Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on X (formerly Twitter): "5 pitches from Tanner Houck in the first.That'll do. pic.twitter.com/3rklozZuwv / X"

  5 pitches from Tanner Houck in the first.That'll do. pic.twitter.com/3rklozZuwv

   

  After a ridiculous start to the season for the Red Sox rotation, it was clear the group hit a wall in the middle of the summer as the offense started to become the identity of the team. Since August 19th, the starting 5 has found their rhythm in a big way again, posting the 4th-best ERA in all of baseball at 3.06. That has led to the 6th-best ERA for the entire year at 3.76, which is a massive improvement for a team that finished 22nd in 2023.

  It’s a tough pill to swallow that the part of the team everyone assumed would crash and burn ended up being the only group that showed up. Still, there’s reason to expect more growth from the rotation next season with Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford getting a full season of starting underneath the belt. The amount of innings the rotation can eat next season will be a key storyline to follow because the Red Sox rank 16th in that department, which isn’t horrible, but can also be viewed as a factor of why the bullpen imploded in the second half.

  The return of Lucas Giolito should help compensate on that front, even with Nick Pivetta likely leaving in free agency, since the former White Sox ace made 29 starts and tossed 160+ innings in each full season dating back to 2018. It will also go a long way if Craig Breslow and company can add a top of the rotation arm that pushes everyone in the rotation down a spot. At that point, the Red Sox will have a chance to have one of the best starting staffs in the sport, which will be a massive step towards this team finally finding some sustainability again.

  Not to mention, the Red Sox will have their best depth at Triple-A in quite some time, with Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester, Hunter Dobbins, and Wikelman Gonzalez waiting in the wings. Fingers-crossed that means Josh Winckowski never needs to be forced in the rotation again. Just imagine how strong that group would look if Luis Perales was ascending towards the big leagues right now.

  Some might point to the rotation being 18th in FIP at 4.18 as a reason to expect regression, but this group has been working with an atrocious defense behind them. It’s almost hard to believe the entire pitching staff didn’t fall apart while dealing with the most errors and unearned runs of any team. Either way, there’s plenty of optimism moving forward with Andrew Bailey getting another year to mold these arms, workload concerns no longer being a major factor, and the front office only having $153.6 MM on the books for 2025.

• 4. Brayan Bello’s turnaround.

  Red Sox on X (formerly Twitter): "Bello with a career high of 11 strikeouts. pic.twitter.com/LXJVym8xPg / X"

  Bello with a career high of 11 strikeouts. pic.twitter.com/LXJVym8xPg

   

  For much of the first half, it felt like all eyes were on Bello after signing his extension. Some expected him to magically turn into this ace after signing his deal and getting a chance to work with Bailey. The reality was that he was going to go through some growing pains as he reworked his arsenal, dealt with a lat strain, and had to learn to control his emotions better on the mound.

  Credit to Bello, while Bailey has helped him tap into more swing-and-miss stuff, the 6’1 righty found his stride after reintroducing his fastball before a start against the Marlins on July 3rd. Since then, he’s made 15 starts and posted a 3.62 ERA/3.72 FIP with a 8.8 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. He’s only improved as the season has winded down as well, with a 2.45 ERA/2.76 FIP over his last 5 starts.

  Tonight he’ll make his 30th start of the season, which he’s never done in his professional baseball career. He’ll become the third Red Sox starter to do that this season, with Nick Pivetta being the one to reach that benchmark over the last two seasons. It’s a big deal for Bello to be reaching this point and looking like the best version of himself because he ran out of gas at the end of 2023.

  All in all, Bello looks like he’ll finish 2024 as the Red Sox best starter in the second half, even if his full season numbers won’t paint that picture. His fastball velocity has gone up a tick (95.2 -> 95.7), his K% has improved from 19.8% to 21.7, and his Whiff% has jumped from 24.4% to 25.9%.

  Command and control will always be something to watch with Bello, but he has improved from the 3.9 BB/9 we saw in the first half. Just going back to the best start of his career on August 28th against the Blue Jays, it’s clear what he’s capable of when he consistently knows where the ball is going. Still, if this version of Bello in the second half is what the Red Sox get moving forward, he’ll be an anchor in the middle of the Red Sox rotation for years to come.

• 5. Triston Casas explodes with 3-homer game.

  Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on X (formerly Twitter): "Triston Casas giving me the most joy I've felt in the month of September. pic.twitter.com/QCnoiCM8xZ / X"

  Triston Casas giving me the most joy I've felt in the month of September. pic.twitter.com/QCnoiCM8xZ

  Sunday’s 3-homer performance from Triston Casas was so damn satisfying. The last few weeks of trade rumors involving him have been mind-numbing, especially with Alex Cora using him in a hard platoon against left-handed pitching. It’s almost like the coaching staff forgot he was one of the best hitters in baseball during the second half of 2023 and someone they were fighting to extend in the spring.

  Nobody is denying that Casas was struggling badly, but so was the rest of the offense. Similar to Devers, we also know that Casas was playing through an injury. Plus Cora had made it clear when Casas returned that he was going to play every day, which helped explain why they didn’t hold onto Dominic Smith in any capacity.

  Just examining Casas’ splits against left-handed starters, he has a 99 wRC+ against them in 2024. That’s still better production than what Devers and Duran have done against them this season. Not to mention, Casas has a career 110 wRC+ against southpaws, which only furthers the point of a platoon not making much sense in this situation.

  It’s just confusing to sit him 5 times in 12 games when you’re starving for someone to carry the offense for a few weeks. We know Casas is capable of that. Plugging Danny Jansen into the lineup and pushing Connor Wong to first base was never going to make that happen.

  Also, it shouldn’t be too surprising that Casas is seemingly finding himself at the plate again after playing 7 games in a row. While he’s not hitting for a high batting average, he’s been drawing walks and showing off his power with a slash line of .227/.393/.818/1.211. Don’t let a few tough weeks cloud your judgement about one of the best young bats in the sport.