What should happen before Drake Maye starts for the Patriots
Thursday night’s loss exposed flaws for the New England Patriots that could keep Drake Maye off the field in the near future – but shouldn’t prevent him from starting at some point this year.
There were a lot of extreme takes flying around the New England Patriots’ fan base after the team’s 24-3 loss to the New York Jets on Thursday night. That’s understandable since it was a pretty extreme game – especially when it comes to the play of the offensive line.
Before he was pulled late in the game, Jacoby Brissett was pressured on 56.5 percent of his dropbacks per Next Gen Stats. That’s the second-highest pressure rate any quarterback has faced this season, and the highest for any Patriots quarterback since Cam Newton in Week 14 of the 2020 season (the Patriots also lost that game 24-3).
The other thing that probably got Patriots fans going last night was a peek at the future. Drake Maye played his first NFL snaps, handling the final drive of the game. He made a couple of plays both with his arm and with his legs, but took some big hits too against a Jets defense that was playing pretty conservative at the time.
Coming away from that game, Maye’s performance had some wondering whether or not it’s time for him to take over as the starting quarterback. At the same time, others pointed to the Patriots’ lack of pass protection as a reason Maye shouldn’t be named the starter for an extended period of time – possibly until next season (case in point, the replies and quote tweets here).
In reality though, those are both extremes. What’s best for Maye – and by extension the team – lies somewhere in the middle.
Maye shouldn’t be named the starter right now – something the Patriots’ coaches expressed on Friday.
It also doesn’t sound like the Patriots are ready to make Maye the starter right now. “Jacoby is our quarterback until I say he’s not the quarterback,” head coach Jerod Mayo said on Friday. Asked if Maye would be getting more reps in practice, Mayo said “I would say it’s still status quo. I said it earlier. Jacoby’s still our starting quarterback.”
“I still think it’s by watching,” offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said on Friday when asked if he feels Maye can benefit more by watching or playing at this point. “I think there’s a lot to be learned yet, and that’s where I’ll stand on that.”
Why Drake Maye shouldn’t start right now
The biggest reason Maye shouldn’t be starting right now? The current state of the offensive line is not set up for him to succeed.
By current state, we mean current. Often this talking point gets rebuffed by people (correctly) pointing out it’s not realistic to add difference-making offensive line talent at this point in the season. But just taking into account the group the Patriots currently have, things aren’t in great shape.
All five of the Patriots’ projected starting offensive linemen appeared on the injury report heading into Thursday night’s game. Two – left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow – didn’t play. As a result, both starting tackles were playing out of position, with Mike Onwenu looking like he should be playing guard through three games.
All of those moving pieces have led to the Patriots allowing a 44.8 percent pressure rate through three games per Next Gen Stats. For context, over the course of a full season that would be the second-highest rate allowed in the NFL since 2019, only one tenth of a percentage point better than last year’s Chicago Bears.
Yes, Maye is going to end up having to take hits at some point. There will be risk of him getting injured. That’s football. The Patriots can’t keep him in bubble wrap forever.
Still it’s worth keeping mind the worst-case scenario for Maye and the Patriots this year – he suffers a long-term injury. While Maye may not be playing on Sundays he is still getting valuable practice reps three days a week. That goes away if he gets hurt, and then he’s really behind schedule.
The stress test for the offensive line could only get worse in coming weeks too. Rookie Caedan Wallace – a career right tackle in college who played left tackle last night – was hurt late in the game. If he’s going to miss time along with Lowe, that leaves the Patriots down to just one healthy true tackle on the active roster. That’s Demontrey Jacobs, who made his NFL debut on Thursday night after spending his rookie season on the Denver Broncos’ practice squad.
That’s all to say that with the way the offensive line is playing right now, it’s not simply about Maye being able to take the hits that come with being an NFL quarterback. He’s going to be exposed to free rushers and constant contact at a higher rate than just about any of his peers – rookie or otherwise – as he’s trying to navigate his first NFL start(s). There’s not much benefit to rushing him into the starting lineup now to deal with this, rather than giving things a few weeks to stabilize.
What needs to happen for Drake Maye to start?
What does stabilizing look like? It’s finding the ‘best five’ up front – an old Dante Scarnecchia term. The Patriots’ offensive line won’t get outright fixed this year but it can get better than its been, and purely by definition there does have to be a ‘best’ lineup up front that allows for a baseline level of pass protection.
Through the first three games there have been signs of what that group might be – even though they haven’t played together yet. There’s one combination that allows the Patriots to get what appear to be their most talented players on the field, without really playing anybody out of position. Once everybody is healthy, the Patriots should strive for a lineup that looks like…
LT: Vederian Lowe
LG: Sidy Sow/Layden Robinson/Michael Jordan*
C: David Andrews
RG: Mike Onwenu
RT: Caedan Wallace
*There’s a case to be made for all three, of these players, which Robinson and Jordan both flashing staring potential through three games. That could be a continued competition.
Will that offensive line be perfect? No. But it should be an improvement from what the Patriots are working with right now, and again allow for a baseline level of protection.
Once that line is on the field, then it makes more sense for the Patriots to start having the conversation about starting Maye. Because that conversation does need to be had.
Why Drake Maye shouldn’t sit the whole year
That’s where we get to the other side of this argument. Maye not starting at all this season shortchanges both him and the team in a number of ways.
While Maye can develop behind the scenes, there are certain things he’ll only be able to learn in games. Eventually that’s going to have to be the next step of his growth, and allowing him to experience those growing pains in a season that is about building a foundation is better than putting all the pressure on him to start Year 2.
Maye getting on the field also helps the Patriots’ front office plan for the future. For one thing, they can really see how his strengths and weaknesses play on an NFL field, and structure their offseason strategy accordingly. Plus, if Maye flashes that should help the team sell veteran free agents or trade targets on coming to New England to be part of what they’re building around the third overall pick.
This can all happen sooner rather than later, assuming the injuries to Lowe and Wallace aren’t significant. The Patriots should show urgency when it comes to putting Maye on the field – but they need to be smart at the same time and factor in the long-term picture. Once Maye is in the lineup they really shouldn’t be benching him, so taking an extra week or two in order to get things set around him should be worth it.
When is a realistic timeline to expect Drake Maye to start?
Weeks 5 and 6 were always looked at as realistic spots for Maye to make his first start, and that still holds true. With extra time this week the Patriots can ramp up Maye’s workload, and maybe he gets his feet wet again if next week’s game in San Francisco is a blowout. Assuming the offensive line gets healthy in that time, those two home games should still be in play for Maye to take the reins from Jacoby Brissett.
Basically, there is a difference between ‘Drake Maye shouldn’t play until the offensive line is better’ and ‘Drake Maye shouldn’t play until the offensive line personnel is completely fixed.’ Right now, the Patriots aren’t even getting baseline pass protection. If they can get to that level (objectively, say sustaining a pressure rate under 40 percent), then there absolutely should be discussions about Maye becoming the starter.
The Patriots don’t need to wait until things are perfect for Maye to start. But the situation can be better than it’s been in the short term (ex. not having multiple linemen playing out of position), and that is something worth waiting on.
