Phil Perry: Patriots Are Not Built to Play From Behind

On Thursday's edition of Toucher & Hardy, Phill Perry who covers the Patriots for NBC Sports Boston, joined the show in advance of the Patriots matchup with the New York Jets. Perry made the point that the Patriots offense is not built to throw the football all over the field, and there offensive line is susceptible to allowing pressure on the quarterback.

Fred: What would concern me as a Patriots fan or someone betting on the Patriots, is that if the Jets score an early touchdown, the game completely shifts. Once Rodgers gets going a little bit, he really finds his groove, and that would concern me. Then the Patriots are forced to throw it, and I don't think they're gonna be able to throw against the Jets.

Phil Perry: No, definitely not. Like if they are put in a position where they are behind, and the Patriots are forced to throw, it's going to be a disaster. The Jets are number one in the league in pressure rate so far this season. The Patriots are 31st in pressure rate allowed. Like if they have to throw the football, Jacoby Brissett is going to be on his back quite a bit and it could be the start of the Drake Maye era sooner than any of us thought.

Fred: In the middle of all of this though, is it a good thing that Cayden Wallace is playing left tackle? You didn't really draft him to be play right tackle. You drafted him to see if he could flip him to left tackle. Now it's an attrition thing where he's playing there, but in a season like this, which is transitional, is it better that you see what you have early rather than later?

Phil Perry: Sure. Throw him into the fire a little bit and see what you have. But it's not good because you are trying to compete and you're trying to win as many games as you can, and having that goal is not conducive to winning football.

Fred: Push back on that a little bit. You're not competing for much this year. But, wouldn't you still like to see them win on Thursday Night Football this year?

Phil Perry: I think it's important for them to experience some success. Of course the developmental thing is going to happen organically because these guys are going to play, and Layden Robinson's already playing. Caeden Wallace is going to play, Drake Maye eventually is going to play. So that sort of thing is going to happen naturally. In the meantime, you should be doing all you can to win as many games as you can to try to generate whatever buy-in, whatever belief, whatever positive experience that you can for people like Jerod Mayo. Alex Van Pelt, and people that are brand new in their jobs.

Fred: All right Jets know the Patriots aren't going to throw, so they'll load up against the run. Can the Patriots still run against that?

Phil Perry: So they've actually done pretty well running against loaded boxes. Teams are so geared toward stopping the Patriots running game because they know they're not a threat to throw. You have all these guys at, or around the line of scrimmage. What I think the Patriots have done an okay job with, is making that unblocked defender a smaller person. So it's typically been a corner, or a safety. They've just said, "Go ahead. We'll allow you to be free and we'll trust Rhamondre Stevenson whose 235 pounds to be able to run through your 185 pound corner's tackle." That's going okay for them. I mean, they've had big rushing numbers each of the last two weeks and Antonio Gibson was a big factor last week. So maybe he'll do the same thing again tonight on a short week. But, you are going to have to throw it eventually. That's the problem with the Patriots right now is that they can't protect and they don't have guys that get open.

After a 1-1 start to the season, the New England Patriots face their first divisional test of 2024 on Thursday night when they visit the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Last time the Patriots took on the Jets, New York ended a record 15-game head-to-head winning streak in the series by the Patriots - winning 17-3 in the season finale at a snowy Gillette Stadium in what was also Bill Belichick's last game as head coach.

While the Jets did manage to end the Patriots' head-to-head winning streak last year, they didn't have the resurgent season they were supposed to have following the addition of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was hurt in the first game of the season, leaving the Jets once again to struggle with an anemic offense to complement their strong defense.

Although the Patriots have a new coaching staff and the Jets have a 'new' quarterback both sides should still be familiar with one another from their divisional matchups. New England is still running the same core defense it did under Belichick, and Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett still ran the same base system after Rodgers got hurt last year.

Now Rodgers is back, although the offense hasn't reached the levels it was expected to just yet. Through the first two weeks of the season the Jets rank 14th in points scored, and 22nd in passing offense. Can they improve against a Patriots' defense they're familiar with? Or will the coaching staff come with a game plan ready to slow down a 40 year old quarterback that has looked skittish in the pocket?

That's just on one side of the ball. On offense, the Patriots' coaching staff has talked up potential adjustments this week. Will any of those adjustments appear in the game on Thurday?

The reality is, both sides won't have much time to come up with anything new this week. That takes us into the first point of our five things to watch in this game...

Not only is the first divisional test for this new Patriots’ coaching staff, it’s also their first short week. As far as short weeks go it’s on the shorter side as well. Because this is a road game the team has to travel on Wednesday, leaving them with just one day of practice heading into this game.

These short weeks are a challenge for any coaching staff. There’s less time to get ready and add things to the game plan, and the need for proper practice time competes with the need to recover from the previous game - something head coach Jerod Mayo mentioned on Monday.

“I think the first thing is to recover,” Mayo said, when asked about preparing for this game. “So in saying that, we're going to bring the guys in late every day this week. They'll come in around 2 o'clock. I think it's important that those guys rest up. It also gives the coaches an opportunity to get the game plan put together. That’s the first thing. Secondly, it comes back to executing. When you're sore, when you're tired, that's what it really comes back to.”

It’s clear through the first two weeks there are adjustments the Patriots need to make (we’ll get to some of those in a bit), but this is a tough week to adjust. How will the coaching staff handle balancing that? This week will be a good barometer of this staff’s game-to-game ability.

In addition to game planning adjustments, the Patriots will also have to make some changes due to injuries. They’re heading into this game down one key player on each side of the ball.

We’ll start on defense, where linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley could be out for the year with a torn pec. Bentley suffered that injury on Sunday, meaning the Patriots’ coaching staff had just three days to prepare to play without a player who played 100 percent of the snaps in the opener and didn’t come off the field until getting hurt in Week 2.

Replacing Bentley won’t be a simple one-for-one swap. Not only is he a very good, productive player (he’s coming off of three consecutive 100-tackle seasons), but he wore a lot of hats for the Patriots’ defense.

When Bentley came off the field last week, it was Raekwon McMillan who saw the biggest increase in playing time. McMillan - who is returning after a torn Achilles cost him his entire 2023 season - handled the early down off-ball linebacker snaps. While he does have the range to play sideline-to-sideline, he doesn’t bring the size or power to the position Bentley does.

“It’s tough. He’s our team captain. He’s our team leader. Everything we do in the linebacker room flows around Bent,” McMillan said this week, per MassLive. “He’s our guy on defense. He’s been the guy for the last two or three years. He’s the voice of the team.

McMillan likely won’t be the only one playing more defensive snaps though. Jahlani Tavai has been used in an off-ball role in the past, and could do that more - especially in run situations. Christian Elliss, who has primarily been a special teams player to this point, could see some increased time on passing downs.

There’s more to replacing Bentley than just his individual assignments though. The tougher adjustment on a short week may be filling the role he held as the defense’s lead communicator. Bentley wore the ‘green dot’ for the Patriots, meaning like quarterbacks on offense his helmet is wired with speakers to relay play calls from the coaching staff. Beyond that, Bentley often helped the team make pre-snap adjustments.

As for the ‘green dot,’ that will go to safety Kyle Dugger. Dugger handled that role when Bentley went out against Seattle.

“Dugger did it all last year as well, so it was not anything new for him,” Jerod Mayo explained on Monday. “I've always been a huge believer in a linebacker having the green dot, but I'll tell you, the way Dugger played yesterday as a whole and being able to handle the communication, he definitely filled in for that role.”

Still, there are natural difficulties that come with having a safety as the lead communicator. Will he have to play more in the box, so he’s in a better position to speak to the entire defense? If so, that could mean more snaps Jabrill Peppers deep, or just more snaps overall for Jaylinn Hawkins at free safety. No matter what, all 11 on the field will have to be more aware without Bentley to conduct.

This is all a lot to go through in just three days. While it’s not like the Jets have any more install time than the Patriots, look for them to use motion, bunch formations, and other pre-snap mechanics to throw a lot at the Patriots’ defense mentally in this game.

Meanwhile, that’s all just on the defensive side of the ball. On offense, the Patriots will be without starting left tackle Vederian Lowe due to a knee injury.

With Lowe out and Chuks Okorafor away from the team, the Patriots will most likely turn to rookie Caedan Wallace at left tackle. Wallace was a career right tackle in college, and mainly repped on the right side this summer. With minimal practice time this week, this will be a big adjustment for him against a Jets team that leads the league in pressure rate (45.6 percent) despite having the eighth-lowest blitz rate (17.6 percent), both per Next Gen Stats.

“I’m prepared for anything,” Wallace said this week when asked about potentially starting at left tackle. “Whatever the coaches need me to do, whatever is best for the team, I’m here for it.”

What can the Patriots do to make things relatively easier on Wallace? One would be calling plays designed to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hand more quickly (more on that in a bit). Look for them to also use tight ends and running backs on that side of the formation to chip or outright help block. This will be a crucial game for left guard Michael Jordan, who has quietly been one of the Patriots’ better offensive linemen after starting the season on the practice squad.

If Wallace goes down, the Patriots would really have to scramble. It’s not clear who the next left tackle would be. The top candidate is probably Demontrey Jacobs, who was claimed off waivers before the start of the season. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Patriots elevate Caleb Jones from the practice squad for this game.

Last year as a rookie, Pop Douglas was the Patriots’ leading receiver despite playing only 14 games. Through two games this year, he has just three targets despite playing the second-most snaps (57.9 percent) of any Patriots wide receiver and didn’t get one ball thrown his way in Week 2.

“Very challenging,” Douglas said this week when asked about his lack of involvement in the offense. “But, on to the next game.”

“We have to get him going,” Jerod Mayo said after that Week 2 game. “We have to scheme up some things for him. He's one of our most explosive players, and that's on us as coaches to put it together.” Mayo doubled-down on that on Monday when asked about creating more explosive offensive plays, saying “we've got to get some of these other players, Pop in particular, involved more on the offense. That's what we'll do this Thursday.”

Well, it’s now this Thursday. Will the Patriots make good on their commitment to get Douglas more involved? If so, how can they do it?

Outright forcing the ball to a receiver can be a really thin like to walk, and lead to turnovers. But there are things the Patriots can do with the play designs and calls to help Douglas.

The first would be moving him up in the progressions, or the order in which the quarterback looks at each receiver once the play starts. Through the first two games, it hasn’t looked like Douglas is early in most progressions from Jacoby Brissett. Now progressions are set different ways and some is dictated by the situation and/or what the defense is showing pre-snap, so this isn’t a complete fix. But it would help.

There’s also the option to call more plays specifically designed for Douglas. Screens, jet sweeps, or just quick one-read concepts designed to get the ball out of Brissett’s hands as quickly as possible (something that would also help with the offensive line issues). An entire gameplan can’t be gadget plays, but mixing a few more in might be good for the Patriots’ offense right now.

As for the question of whether or not Brissett trusts Douglas and is comfortable throwing him the ball, that’s an unknown for now. But the two will need to get going at some point, and the coaching staff should help facilitate that relationship.

For what it’s worth, Brissett seemed to commend Douglas’ approach when asked about the receiver’s comments this week. “It's a good thing that he's frustrated, you want players that want the ball,” Brissett said. “It would be a crime if he didn't, you know.I understood his frustration."

This is a Patriots’ offense that needs more explosive plays, particularly in the passing game. With the offensive line in the state it's in, deep passes are going to be a struggle right now. The next best thing is getting the ball to players who can turn a 5-yard pass into a 25-yard gain. That’s Douglas. We’ll see if the coaching staff can get him going this week.

Christian Gonzalez keeps passing tests in Year 2. While he was around the coverage bust on D.K. Metcalf last week he wasn’t at fault (Kyle Dugger took responsibility postgame). Outside of that, Gonzalez allowed just three catches for 24 yards on seven targets against Metcalf, a week after holding Ja’Marr Chase to 15 yards on three receptions.

This week Gonzalez faces a familiar face, but a new test at the same time. He’ll likely be shadowing star Jets receiver Garrett Wilson, making it the first time in the NFL Gonzalez faces a receiver for the second time.

Does that help Gonzalez, since he’s more familiar with Wilson’s game? Or make it more of a challenge, since Wilson is more familiar with him?

“I feel like it's both,” Gonzalez told 98.5 The Sports Hub this week. “We saw each other once last year. You see each other, but - that's a whole year ago. He's put in a lot of work, I've put in a lot of work. You can't really rely just on last year.”

Before Gonzalez got hurt last year he faced Wilson and the Jets in Week 3, holding Wilson to 3 catches for 18 yards on five targets. It was one of Wilson’s least-productive games of the season.

It’s safe to say Gonzalez is looking forward to the rematch. “He's a great receiver. He's got his quarterback now,” Gonzalez said. “I'm excited for it. It'll be fun. He's a Texas boy, so we talk about that. It'll be fun.”

Meanwhile, Gonzalez did get praise this week from the quarterback he’ll be trying to defend, Aaron Rodgers. “I think he’s a great player,” Rodgers said on the Pat McAfee Show this week. “Got to know him just a little bit [in the offseason]. He’s a great kid. He’s super, super talented. He is an elite player.”

An early-developing trend for this Patriots team is issues in the third quarter. Through two games the Patriots have scored the second-fewest third quarter points in the NFL (3, the Broncos are the only team in the NFL yet to score a third quarter point) and rank dead last in third quarter yardage offensively (102). They rank 28th in third quarter yards per play, at an even 4.0.

We’ve talked so far a lot about the Patriots adjusting game-to-game, but the in-game adjustments should be a focus this week too - especially on the shorter week where less was done leading up to the game. The Patriots have had chances to pull away in the third quarter of both of their games this year, and failed to do so both times.

It’s just two games, so maybe it’s too early to declare this a full-on definitive problem for the team. But with a new coaching staff all elements of the operation will initially get more scrutiny - including halftime adjustments.

Over the first two games it seemed like the Patriots were more conservative on offense coming out of the locker room. Will those sorts of adjustments continue this week?

Defensively the Patriots rank in the middle of the back in both yards (165, 19th) and points (7, T10th). There’s room to improve there as well, but the drop off isn’t nearly as extreme as it is on offense.