Week 2 NFL Podcast & Picks

NFC Wild Card Playoffs - Dallas Cowboys v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FLORIDA – JANUARY 16: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates on the field after defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-14 in the NFC Wild Card playoff game at Raymond James Stadium on January 16, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

NFL favorites went 13-3 straight up on the moneyline (9-7 ATS) in Week 1. That is tied for the best record for Week 1 favorites since realignment in 2002 (also 13-3 SU in 2009). Favorites also started the season 4-0 SU/ATS in night games during Week 1. The overreaction to favorites based on Week 1 has arrived — 10 of 16 games have seen the opening favorites line get bigger. That mark of 10+ games would be the most in a Week 2 in the past 20 years — no season in that span even closed with nine such games according to the action network.

Week 2 begins on Thursday night with an AFC east battle beteween two 1-0 team in Miami. The Dolphins had a comeback win over the Jaguars winning by a field goal, Josh Allen willed his team to vicotry after trailing 14-0 early to Arizona and allowing a kick return late in the game. The other team in the AFC with a win was the Patriots with a 16-10 win over the Bengals. Cincinnati was amped up to welcome back QB Joe Burrow, who missed the final seven weeks of last season with a wrist injury. But the Bengals, 7.5-point home favorites, managed just one TD and a field goal — both in the second half — and stunningly lost. "For sure, the Patriots killed everybody’s parlays," BetMGM trader Christian Cippolini said. "We had a few good results [early], and the Patriots was obviously very good." Added South Point sportsbook director: "A lot of wiseguys were on the Patriots. But the public was all over Cincinnati, including in parlays and moneyline parlays." The Jets lost on Monday night to start 0-1.

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Week 2 is normally a bounce back week and teams cant afford to start the season 0-2. The Rams head to Arizona as 1.5 point underdogs while the Titans host the Jets who have the Patriots next Thursday. The Ravens are favored by 9.5 over the Raiders all hoping not to start the season with two losses. The Bengals travel to the Kansas City as 5 point underdogs. The Bucs go on the road to Detroit while the Saints head to Dallas after their week 1 victory over the Panthers. And we have a battle of the Birds when the Eagles look to force Atlanta into an 0-2 start on Monday Night Football. In Week 1, there were a total of 34 passing touchdowns between all 32 teams. That's three fewer than last year and for some perspective, 2021 had 61 pass TDs in Week 1. The overreaction to totals based on bad passing play has shown up in Week 2 as 12 of 16 games have seen their totals drop from their opening line. That mark of 12+ games to see their total drop would be the most in a Week 2 in the past 20 years.

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Joe MurrayEditor

Joe Murray has worked behind the scenes and on-air in New England since 2007. Murray was born and raised in Boston (Hyde Park) and is now living on the North Shore in Peabody. A graduate of CSB School of Broadcasting, Joe was hired at 98.5 The Sports Hub in 2011 and is the host of Patriots Postgame and the Over/Under Podcast with Dan Lifshatz. Joe was hired as the full-time night show host in 2023, and a featured guest for “The Weekly Spread” on NBC Sports Boston during football season. Joe writes about all New England sports from Patriots football to Boston Celtics and Boston Bruins.