Patriots Notebook: How will the Patriots replace Matthew Judon?
The New England Patriots are going to have to lean on internal candidates to replace the defensive impact lost by the departure of Matthew Judon.
If the New England Patriots are going to hit the over on 4.5 wins in the 2024 season, the best bet is that they achieve it on defense.
That became a much tougher proposition over the course of training camp in Foxboro. As the defense took the practice fields in Foxboro for the first time in late July, the Pats had a formidable defensive front headlined by linebacker Matthew Judon and defensive tackle Christian Barmore. Both are now gone, Judon permanently via trade, and Barmore likely out for extended time after suffering from blood clots.
Barmore emerged midway through the 2023 season as a force for the Patriots defense, making him an immense loss. The Pats still haven’t placed him on injured reserve, leaving open the possibility to return at some point during the season if he’s moved to IR after being named to the 53-man roster.
Judon, however, is gone for good. And that’s quite a presence to replace, both on and off the field. But let’s keep it between the white lines, for now.
The player that will likely get the most ink devoted to his potential as a Judon replacement is second-year pro Keion White, who does have the best chance of any front-seven defender to emerge as a true game-breaker. But White is a pure defensive lineman, who will line up both inside and outside, and complement the linebacking corps.
As a direct replacement, a true “next man up,” the player to watch in 2024 is outside linebacker Anfernee Jennings. The fifth-year pro has had a long, turbulent road to this moment. He played 14 games with four starts as a rookie, but only saw the field for 33% of defensive snaps, ceding edge reps to incumbents like Ja’Whaun Bentley, Chase Winovich, and John Simon. He then missed the entire 2021 season after being placed on injured reserve during final roster cuts at the end of August.
It was in 2022 that Jennings started to flash. He again played only 32% of defensive snaps while starting only three of 16 games, but managed to log 1.5 sacks, four total QB hits, and 27 total tackles in part-time action. As an edge-setting specialist, Jennings earned a run defense grade of 78.0 from Pro Football Focus, 11th-highest in the league.
Jennings took another big step forward in 2023, especially against the run, as his excellent 85.9 PFF run defense grade ranked fifth in the league among qualified edge defenders. He played 67% of defensive snaps and racked up 66 tackles, including 14 for a loss of yardage, in 15 games (14 starts).
That percentage figures to at least stay the same, if not increase, as the Patriots look to replace Judon’s snaps. Jennings will certainly be a mainstay on early downs, and he figures to get a bump in snaps on passing downs. Jennings remains focused on doing his own job, despite confronting the harsh reality of Judon’s departure from the group, but hopes to see his role expanded in the post-Judon era.
“I just want to be able to be the best version of myself on the field and be able to provide value wherever I’m at on the field, and be able to provide that every down,” Jennings said last week.
In terms of pass-rushing linebackers, the Pats are still on track to lean on Joshua Uche, who is only two years removed from an 11.5-sack season. But Jennings is their safest pick as a more well-rounded player who can play three downs, as opposed to a pressure specialist like Uche.
Veteran defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr. remains in the fold as a roster lock and strong candidate to be team captain. He’ll line up as a “Wide 9” defensive end and occasionally scheme inside. Expect a lot of coached-up pressure packages like stunts and blitzes, as the Patriots look to overcome a possible lack of pure difference-making talent with a deep, versatile unit under new defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington.
“He’s an intellectual, the type of guy who can see plays happen before they happen,” Wise said of Covington during training camp. “He can understand different situations, so he knows how to call certain plays based on the situation that is given. He’s a great motivator. He motivates guys internally and externally, and he paints a good picture, so guys can understand the true significance of a certain game, a certain play, a certain moment.”
The short answer? To replace Judon, and Barmore for that matter, it may take all 11.
More from this week’s Patriots Notebook…
A ‘Real’ Competition?
Head coach Jerod Mayo has consistently alluded to a “competition” for the starting quarterback job to begin the 2024 regular season. But his actions haven’t reflected those words.
Wednesday marked a notable change, but a minuscule one that doesn’t exactly scream “competition.” Drake Maye took snaps with the full starting offense for the first time all summer, a step that Mayo said was “very important” in their evaluation of the rookie’s ability to start.
However, Maye only took three total snaps with the starters, all of them handoffs. So, the only apples-to-apples comparison we have so far between Maye and Jacoby Brissett is in the running game. Maye also faced the scout team defense, and has yet to face the starters on the other side.
Maye continues to be brought along slowly. But Wednesday’s development, as small as it was, indicates that the QB competition is getting real. The question is whether Maye has enough time left to close the gap to start Week 1, which feels unlikely at this point.
Rookies Rising
While Maye is the linchpin that will define the Patriots’ 2024 draft class, training camp indicated that other rookies have a chance to make immediate impacts.
The key pieces on the rise are coming at two of New England’s biggest areas of need, wide receiver and offensive line. Wideout Ja’Lynn Polk, the 34th overall pick out of Washington, has been one of the team’s most consistent camp performers, regardless of service time. He lines up all over the field, runs solid routes, and catches everything. Over the past week, Polk has started to see more reps with the starting offense in team drills, and should be a regular in the receiver rotation out of the gate.
“The biggest thing is really just staying consistent,” Polk said last week. “You’ve got a lot of guys that are depending on you, so the main thing is going out there and being consistent.”
At offensive tackle, rookie Caedan Wallace started strong at camp before gearing down to backup duty in 11-on-11 drills. But both Wallace and another rookie lineman, guard Layden Robinson, have seen time with the Patriots’ starting O-line in team drills in recent practices. It’s a sign that the coaches’ confidence in them is growing, even if they both need more seasoning before earning full-time gigs.
“He’s going to be a very good player in this league,” Mayo said of Wallace on Monday. “Once again, going back to he’s a rookie; he needs to see more football. I think it’s important for him to get out there, not just Caedan, but also Layden [Robinson]. I think he’s done a good job as well, and David’s [Andrews] been really helping those guys out.”
Wallace could ascend to a starting role sooner than expected, as left tackle Vederian Lowe left practice early with an injury on Wednesday. If Lowe has to miss time beyond Wednesday, his fill-in at the starting left tackle spot will be one of the top players to watch going forward.
Undrafted safety making waves
The Patriots’ safety group continues to be as strong and deep as ever in the post-Devin McCourty era, with experience to match. But an undrafted rookie is making an impressive push to sneak onto the 53-man roster.
Dell Pettus has shown physicality and versatility throughout his time at Patriots training camp, lining up all over the field and delivering hard hits against both ballcarriers and pass-catchers. The Pats are going to continue to play Nickel defense under Covington, and Pettus seems like a strong fit, at the very least insurance for veteran Jabrill Peppers.
“He’s definitely making a case for himself, not only defensively, but also on special teams,” Mayo said Wednesday. “That’s going to be a hard decision there, but he’s doing a good job for us.”
MORE: Patriots claim wide receiver off waivers, place another on injured reserve
If Pettus ultimately doesn’t make the 53-man roster, he would be a virtual certainty to come back on the practice squad, should he be unable to sign elsewhere. If the Patriots still had a streak of undrafted rookies on the roster, he’d be one of the top candidates to keep it alive.
Matt Dolloff is a writer and digital content producer for 98.5 The Sports Hub. Read all of his articles here.
