Are the 2024 Boston Red Sox done?

As the Boston Red Sox up and down second half continues, Matt McCarthy and Mazz have differing opinions on if the Red Sox are done.

Listen to the full segment here

Are the Red Sox done?

Matt McCarthy: It's done. They're over. It's cooked. They're 4 1/2 games back of Kansas City, the pitching staff is in shambles, and the bullpen is a real problem right now. I've given this team a lot of credit for fighting and being scrappy, and they kind of did again last night, but at some point you just have to say eventually they're going to realize that their pitching is not good enough to get them there. And Jim, just like you, I bought in. I'm a sucker. I totally bought in hook, line, and sinker on this team really contending and competing for a playoff spot. It has looked different this year, I'll give you that. It's looked different. They've been more competitive. They've won some really exciting games, which they really haven't done in recent years, but the end result is the same. It's August 20th and the season's over. Just like last year and just like 2022. It was better. It was a hell of a lot better up until the All-Star break, but here we are. The same thing is happening because they're not good enough in the end. And I thought they were. Shame on me. Shame. Shame. Your take stinks. Shame. Yep, it's bad. They're done. 

Mazz: Believe it or not, I don't think they're done yet...but they're slipping.And when I when I say they're not done yet, there's still enough time. I don't have a lot of faith in the teams in front of them, Kansas City and Minnesota most notably, but stick to Kansas City despite the fact that the Royals are playing better. Despite the fact that the Royals did more at the deadline.  

Mazz: The fact of the matter is, I actually think they're starting pitching is starting to upturn a little. I do. And I agree with Cora that they're starting to get healthy. O'Neill's back in the lineup, Casas is back in the lineup, Yoshida is swinging the bat well, Houck’s been throwing the ball well.... 

Jim Murray: Houck and Bello these last couple of starts have been pretty good.  

Mazz: Yes. So the point being, they won the game that Bello pitched. Last night, now I can't speak for the bullpen, which gets into a whole different discussion, but do I think they're cooked? No. Do I think they're getting there? Yes. 

Listen to Felger and Mazz from 2-6 every Monday-Friday on 98.5 The Sports Hub, with hosts Mike Felger, Tony “Mazz” Massarotti, and Jim Murray “Big Jim”. You can listen live in the Sports Hub App and subscribe to their podcasts here. Follow @FelgerAndMazz on Twitter to keep up with the show!

When Dominic Smith opted out of his minor-league deal with the Rays on May 1st and signed with the Red Sox, he was viewed as nothing more than a stopgap. If we’re being honest, he wasn’t even viewed as their best addition with Garrett Cooper being dealt for at the same time. Just over 3 months later, he’s become a crucial figure in the clubhouse and has played a part in the Red Sox exceeding everyone’s expectations.

Smith’s slash line of .235/.317/.397/.771 in 77 games doesn’t jump off the screen and neither does his 97 wRC+ or 6 homers. He went through a rough May as he found his footing in Boston, but he’s been a much different player since the start of June. Over 172 plate appearances from June 1st through August 10th, he’s mashing to the tune of .255/.337/.458/.795 for a 118 wRC+.

Along with his bat continuing to surge, Smith has also brought stability with his glove, which isn’t something to overlook with the Red Sox always on the verge of a defensive funk. He currently ranks in the 72nd percentile for Outs Above Average, despite being part of an infield that has had plenty of moving parts. Defensive Runs Saved is a bit more negative on his work with a -2 mark, but either way, it shows he hasn’t been some type of albatross at the position.

Off the field, Smith’s impact seems to be as significant as what he’s been doing on the field. Along with Rob Refsnyder, he’s been mentioned as one of the leaders who have helped shape the relentless identity of this team. That was badly needed after the departure of Justin Turner, with Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran still growing into their roles as leaders for the franchise.

Alex Cora told the media on Saturday that they don’t expect Casas back on this homestand, so that points to him returning against the Orioles this weekend. His rehab assignment can’t go past August 17th. So far, it doesn’t seem like his bat has missed a beat, as he’s rocking a .286/.375/.464/.839 line with 5 doubles in only 7 games.

That means in the next week the Red Sox need to make a decision on Smith. As a left-handed bat, he doesn’t fit as a typical back-up for Casas since he wouldn’t be an intriguing option against a tough left-handed starter. Still, it feels extremely risky to let Smith go through waivers with another team starving to jump on the production he’s given the Red Sox this season.

To Smith’s credit, he hasn’t been a disaster against left-handed pitching in 2024, but the Red Sox have mostly protected him from it. He’s registered a line of .256/.289/.419/.708 in 45 plate appearances for a 91 wRC+. That’s right in line with his career numbers against southpaws, which has him at .255/.325/.368/.693 with a 92 wRC+.

Casas doesn’t feel like a sure bet in any sense right now due to the type of injury he’s dealing with. He made it clear to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that he’s dealing with an uptick in pain since starting to swing in games again as well. Who knows if he’s only another swing away from a setback that would leave the Red Sox with no insurance at the position down the stretch.

There aren’t many alternatives at first base if Smith isn’t in the organization. Nathan Hickey isn’t a big league option in AAA and don’t even get me started about Bobby Dalbec. Romy Gonzalez, Nick Sogard, Connor Wong, Mickey Gasper, and maybe Rob Refsnyder would become the next options, with none of them being anywhere close to experienced at the position.

Now, maybe those concerns lessen if Casas returns and he’s lighting the world on fire without any issues. But more likely than not, Casas is going to need to get his legs underneath him, which is where some playing time could open up for Smith. As the Red Sox navigate that period, it should get them pretty close to September 1st when rosters expand from 26 to 28.

In order to make things work right now though, someone needs to be optioned down to AAA. Sogard has done nothing to deserve a demotion (127 wRC+), but he feels like the most likely candidate in this situation, since it allows the Red Sox to maintain their depth and Gonzalez works as a platoon partner with David Hamilton at second base. If Smith is going to be on the roster, he can only help out at first base (hasn't played left field since 2020), so this allows Gonzalez to still get a fair chunk of playing time with his ability to demolish lefties.

Once rosters expand, the Red Sox will have the option of bringing Sogard back if they please, and it allows them some more time to reassess the roster. At that point, the bench will include some combination of Refsnyder, Danny Jansen, Gonzalez, Sogard, and Smith. Trevor Story’s return could complicate this entire conversation, but he’s still quite a ways away from becoming a factor in this equation.

There’s no denying that keeping Smith is somewhat of an imperfect fit, but pulling him out of the clubhouse and weakening your depth at first base seems like two unnecessary blows right now. I’m curious to see if he’s actually unlocked something permanent at the plate as well, with Hitting Coach Pete Fatse’s recent work to help channel his swing mechanics from high school. It’s easy to forget that Smith was tearing up the big leagues back in 2020, which seemingly put him on the Red Sox radar back in 2022.

So, here I am standing tall and saying we need more Big Dom Smith Moments. Never thought I’d be saying anything like that on Opening Day. It goes to show the impact of Craig Breslow not sitting on his hands when Casas got hurt and the type of message it can send to the guys in that clubhouse.