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Boston Celtics statistics that show why they'll win it all

For those that tune in regularly to Felger and Mazz, you may hear Felger taking pot-shots at me, Jared the intern. According to Felger, I’m a “green-teamer,” soaked in green Boston Celtics goo, and helplessly blinded by my rabid fandom. While all of that may be undeniably true, I’m here to tell you that I have the utmost faith in my green-tinted vision. I’m here to confirm: the view from the green team side is a good one. I am undeterred by Celtics haters and remain nothing but bullish on the team’s championship chances this season. With a win percentage near 80 and more dominant performances than you can count on both hands and both feet, it baffles me that doubters are still out there, but alas, I will change your mind if I must. If you’re looking for anything other than green team fever, turn away now. Below, I have compiled the definitive statistics that will put your mind at ease and explain exactly why the 2023-24 Boston Celtics will be the one to break through and bring banner 18 to titletown. 

*All stats are as of 3/27/2024 

Late-game, this is a different team

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 17: Quentin Grimes #6 of the New York Knicks defends Jrue Holiday #4 of the Boston Celtics during the second half of the Celtic’s preseason game against the New York Knicks at TD Garden on October 17, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Celtics fans, not without reason, fear the late game collapse. We’ve all seen the team devolve into pointless iso-ball before losing an easily winnable game. Derrick White’s heroic buzzer beater in game 6 of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals wouldn’t have even been necessary had the Celtics not blown a 10 point lead in the final 5 minutes. Thus far this season, however, the Celtics have dominated the fourth quarter. The 2021-2022 Celtics, famed for their late game struggles, finished 15th in the league with a fourth quarter net rating of 0.5. Last year’s Celtics fared only marginally better, with a 2.1 fourth quarter net rating that ranked 11th in the league. This season has been a different story. The Celtics rank first in fourth quarter net rating at 5.7, more than double last season.

This success isn’t only indicative of the Celtics many blowout victories either. In the final 5 minutes of the game with a point differential of 5 or less (the traditional “clutch time” situation), the Celtics remain top 10 in net rating, win percentage, points per game, plus minus, free throw attempts and percentage (always key when shots aren’t falling), and 3 point percentage. Despite worries of “Mazzulla ball” ruining games, the Celtics rank only 11th in 3pa per game in the clutch situations. They’re not perfect by any means, but the numbers suggest that the Celtics have largely addressed their late game issues.

• They take care of the ball

  

  BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – MAY 29: Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics competes for the ball with Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat during the first quarter in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden on May 29, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

  The quickest route to throwing a game (or a championship) away lies in throwing the ball away. Celtics fans know that better than most. The Celtics failed to beat the Warriors in the Finals two seasons ago in part because of their 16 turnovers per game. In the 2021-22 season as a whole, the team’s 13.9% turnover ratio ranked 13th in the league. In the playoffs, it jumped to 15.4%. Last season, the Celtics fell behind the Heat 3-0 by fumbling the ball away 15 times in all three games. At least so far, this season, the turnover switch has been flipped. The team is second in the league with a 12.1% turnover ratio, firmly in elite territory. Late game turnovers? A thing of the past. Their 12.7% turnover ratio in the fourth quarter lands at 5th in the league, a far cry from the 14.7% that plagued the 2021-22 Celtics. That’s the sign of a well-coached, calm under pressure squad.

   

• They’re winning the non-Jayson Tatum minutes

  The Warriors had a 10.6 net rating in 2015-16 while setting an NBA record with 73 regular-season wins. The Celtics have a 10.7 net rating so far this season when Jayson Tatum is on the bench.

  — Jay King (@ByJayKing) March 24, 2024

  In past seasons, it was more than fair to outwardly groan when Jayson Tatum hit the bench. Much like the Nuggets are known for struggling without offensive hub Nikola Jokic, the Celtics coughed up many a lead without their star forward in the game. The 2021-22 Celtics, finals trip and all, had their net rating decrease by a whopping 14.0 points with Tatum off the floor. With him on the court, they were dominant. Without him, they performed at the level of this year’s Atlanta Hawks. The 2022-23 Celtics improved in that factor, but still suffered a 5.6 point drop in net rating with Tatum on the bench. This year, the difference is only 1.8. The Celtics are the best team in basketball, whether or not Tatum is on the floor. As Jay King notes, that level of basketball is historically great. Come playoff time, the Celtics may not be forced to run Tatum into the ground as they have in years past. The ability to stay in games without your number one option separates the good from the great. 

• Jaylen Brown’s (Re)Emergence

  

  BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 27: Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics yells after a dunk during the second quarter against the Miami Heat at TD Garden on October 27, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Schroeder/Getty Images)

  No one came out of last year’s playoffs catching more flak than Jaylen Brown. While Brown was excellent against the Hawks and Sixers, he fell apart vs. the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. It appears he hasn’t forgotten. Brown is putting together one of the most impressive seasons of his career and his recent production has reached an elite level; one that, if maintained, will only fuel the team’s championship aspirations. Since the All-Star break, Brown is averaging 28.4 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists on 53.7% from the field and 40.4% from deep. Those are first team all-NBA numbers.

  Brown’s mastery of the mid-range game gives the Celtics’ a perpetual failsafe on offense, and the stats confirm: he can score in any situation. Brown is shooting 60.9% on “tightly defended” shots within the arc and an unbelievable 57.8% on possessions in which he records 7+ dribbles. When Brown decides to score, there hasn’t been much opposing teams can do to stop him.

  Most importantly, Brown is doing this without turning the ball over. Brown’s struggles with turnovers are well-documented, but since the All-Star break he’s averaging only 1.6 turnovers per game, down from his season average of 2.3 and last year’s 2.9. Brown is out for vengeance, and that’s a good sign for the team’s chances.

• Tatum has improved in important areas

  BOSTON, MA – FEBRUARY 27: Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics is fouled by Kelly Oubre Jr. #9 of the Philadelphia 76ers in the second half during a game at TD Garden on February 27, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)Critics of Jayson Tatum often point to two aspects of his game: a propensity to shoot (and miss) bad threes, and an unwillingness to swing the rock. While Tatum has generally improved year-to-year, he’s shifted to another gear entirely as this season has progressed. Over his last 24 games, Tatum is shooting 40.6% from three and averaging 6.0 assists. Anyone who has tuned in has seen a dramatic improvement in his decision making, and the numbers reflect that. After a cold and often frustrating start from deep, Tatum is up to more than reasonable 35% on pull up threes, in addition to a sizzling 43% on catch and shoot opportunities. He’ll still chuck up a frustrating step-back every now and then, but that shot is frustrating mainly when it isn’t going in. No one is upset when Luka Doncic takes step back after step back, simply because he makes them. The Tatum of late is approaching that territory. He’s a threat from deep, he’s a threat to facilitate, and he’s a threat to lead the Celtics to a championship.

• History is on their side

  

  2 Jun 1997: Guard Michael Jordan of the Chicago Bulls speaks to reporters during a press conference at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Daniel /Allsport

  You may have gotten this far thinking “who cares? These are regular season stats!” Yet for all of the talk of “the regular season doesn’t matter,” this regular season has been distinct from all those before, and in the historical range where prediction is unavoidable. The Celtics are currently third in NBA history in net rating, behind only the 1995-96 and 1996-97 Chicago Bulls, both of whom won the championship. Of teams in the top ten, all but the 2015-16 Spurs and the infamous 2015-16 Warriors fell short of a title. They are fifth in NBA history in margin of victory. Unsurprisingly, the four teams ahead of them all won the championship. Make no mistake; this is historic company. To ignore the unique domination we’ve all witnessed would be a crying shame. If history is any measure, we’ll be seeing this team go deep in the playoffs.