NCAA tournament bets with the Bankroll Boy$
The month of March has been madness and here we are at the NCAA tournament. Anything can happen at this time of year. We’ve seen two 16 seeds knock-off the number 1 seed before as UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson knocking off Purdue last season. What seeds could have the best chance at an upset?
March Madness picks from the Bankroll Boy$
A number 15 seed has defeated a number 2 seed in each of the last three years: Oral Roberts over Ohio State in 2021, Saint Peter’s over Kentucky in 2022 and Princeton over Arizona in 2023. Abilene Christian is the last number 14 seed to pull off the feat, doing so against Texas in the 2021 tournament. Furman became the latest No. 13 seed to get past a No. 4 seed in the first round with a win over Virginia in 2023.
The best chance for an upset is the 12/5 seed matchup. 12 seeds have a 53-99 record against 5 seeds since 1985, good for a .349 winning percentage. No. 11 seeds are 58-94 (.382 winning percentage) against No. 6 seeds since 1985. Since 2016, No. 11 seeds are actually more likely to win their opening games than No. 6 seeds, though, going 15-13 over that stretch. Going back even further, at least one No. 11 seed has upset a No. 6 in every tournament since 2005. Last year, Pitt upset Iowa state to advance as the 11 seed. UCLA went to the final four in 2021 but the most popular 11th seed was Loyola University and Sister Jean.
As for the 10 seeds , they have beaten 7 seeds nearly 40% of the time, going 59-92 since 1985. When it comes to 9 seeds against number 8 seeds, it’s almost a complete toss-up with a slight advantage for the “underdogs.”From 1985 to 2023, No. 9 seeds went 78-74 against No. 8 seeds. Recent history has been more favorable for No. 9 seeds, as well, with those teams going 17-11 in first-round games since 2016.
Check out Joe Murray and Dan Lifshatz picks for the tournament.
