Will Giolito’s Injury Change John Henry’s Mind About the Red Sox?
On Thursday’s edition of Toucher & Hardy, Chris Cotillo who is a Red Sox reporter for Masslive, joined the show and explained how the Red Sox are less likely to invest in the roster after pitcher Brutal news: Initial imaging showed Boston Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito likely has a partially torn UCL and flexor strain and could miss the 2024 season, league sources tell ESPN. Giolito, who signed a two-year deal with Boston, may need surgery to repair the right-elbow damage.
It Feels Like it Makes it Less Likely…
Jon Wallach: Are they going to add from outside the organization, or are they just like you kind of intimated, are they just going to move one of these middle-relief swing guys to the starting rotation and keep going?
Chris Cotillo: Yeah, I mean, I think people saw that the other day and thought, oh, wow,” That’s what’s going to push John Henry to go get Jordan Montgomery.” You know, I do see “if A” then “if B” there. But if you reverse engineer it, it feels like it makes it less likely. Just because John Henry didn’t think this team was good enough to want to add to. That’s something he has expressed privately to people that, you know, we’re not there yet. So I’m not willing to go past my budget. The budget’s been set for months. That injury now means that instead of thinking, 18 or 19 million into that rotation spot, he’d be thinking Jordan Montgomery gets 25, and all of a sudden 45 million into a rotation spot, you know, and that’s just one spot on a team of 26. They’re worse than they were a few days ago, and it makes even less sense to spend.
I do think every day that goes by where this guy’s unsigned or Blake Snell is unsigned, and you know, Snell’s a lot less likely because he has a draft pick attached. But every day that goes by with Montgomery unsigned, the door has to be open just because the fit makes sense. They’ve had talks and maybe the musical chairs works out. So I can’t rule it out 100%. I just think that this is one of those things where it’s not like Henry’s looking at it and thinking, we got to replace (Lucas)Giolito. Let’s go get this guy, is probably the reverse. Where he’s saying, we weren’t good enough for me to invest before, and now we’re even worse. Let’s just give it up and he’ll sign elsewhere. A guy like Montgomery, I think the Rangers or maybe the Cardinals. You know, it’s a team that wanted to commit to trying to win, and Montgomery’s been there before. Maybe the angels, I don’t know. But I am looking forward to him signing somewhere just because I think fans are still disillusioned. Thinking that he’s going to come here, and I see why. I mean, he is on paper, a perfect fit. He’s the guy that would fit this team. It’s just where they think they are, and even signing him to a longer term deal, they just they don’t see the match.
They haven’t been able to meet his asking price. As others have pointed out, Scott Boras now has all the leverage and can’t wait out a discount. If Giolito is out, that’s another reason to put pressure on the Red Sox. They just have not been willing to get to that ask price yet.
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Milliken: 7 names making noise for the Red Sox this spring
3. Justin Slaten (8.0 OppQual)
Feb 20, 2024; Lee County, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Justin Slaten (63) poses for a photo during media day at JetBlue Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Heading into spring training, it felt like there was a showdown for the last bullpen spot between Justin Slaten and Bryan Mata. Both need to be on the Opening Day roster due to Slaten being a Rule 5 pick and Mata being completely out of options. But with Mata suffering a hamstring strain, he’s fallen behind and Slaten has run with the opportunity.
In 3 outings, Slaten hasn’t given up a run and has racked up 3 strikeouts without a walk. He did allow two baserunners in his first outing thanks to a hit by pitch and a single, but since then he’s harnessed his control. Alex Cora made it a point that he wanted to see Slaten throw strikes this spring and so far he’s done a great job of that.
Another big thing for Slaten is that he’s a Breslow guy. The Red Sox were gushing over him this winter when he came over from the Mets for Ryan Ammons and cash considerations. Mata doesn’t have that working in his favor, since he’s been in the organization for nearly a decade with more injuries than anyone can remember.
4. Ceddanne Rafaela (8.3 OppQual)
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 30: Ceddanne Rafaela #43 of the Boston Red Sox hits an RBI double during the sixth inning against the Houston Astros at Fenway Park on August 30, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images)
On the first day of spring training, Cora made headlines by saying Ceddanne Rafaela would have a shot at the starting center fielder job. So far, he’s showing that he deserves to be in Seattle on Opening Day. It’s not about just the numbers either, but the decisions he’s making at the plate.
Rafaela is 4-for-11 with a double, which is a nice sign, but what catches my eye is that he has walked (4) more than he’s struckout (3). Just looking at this at-bat from yesterday’s game against the Tigers, it’s clear he’s spitting on pitches that are right outside the strike zone. If he can sustain that approach, it should stop him from getting exposed like he did in September last season.
As usual, Rafaela has also impressed defensively with a couple nice plays in center field. On the basepaths, he’s been extremely aggressive with 2 steals and 1 caught stealing. He’d only have one stolen base if it wasn’t for a nifty slide against the Cardinals, which is something to keep an eye since he was getting thrown out a lot at AAA last year, but this is the type of athleticism the Red Sox have been yearning for.
Chris Murphy (OppQual 8.2)
Jul 30, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Chris Murphy (72) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the sixth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports
Chris Murphy has a chance to be the best lefty in the Red Sox bullpen if he gets back to the arm we saw for a majority of last summer. He’s faced good competition this spring and hasn’t given up any runs in 4 innings of work. That includes 4 strikeouts and no walks, which is what you’re hoping for with the stuff he offers from the left side.
Mark Contreras (OppQual 7.9)
If everything goes right, Mark Contreras will only be depth for the Red Sox, but he’s hit well to start the spring. He smoked a home run against Northeastern and then went deep again against the Orioles. That’s left him with an .855 OPS through 12 at-bats.
Connor Wong/Mark Kolozsvary/Tyler Heineman:
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – MAY 02: Connor Wong #12 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates in front of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays after hitting a home run during the sixth inning at Fenway Park on May 02, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
I’m going to combine these three since they all factor into the catching situation. Connor Wong finally returns to the defensive side of things today after dealing with elbow soreness and a bruised knuckle. Even with those nagging issues, he’s swung the bat well going 3-for-7 with a double in 3 games.
Mark Kolozsvary and Tyler Heineman have both been red hot against solid competition, which is nice considering they’re here for their defense. Cora didn’t commit to Reese McGuire as the back-up catcher at the start of camp, but it’s clear they still like him. Roberto Perez will factor into this conversation as well, especially since he finally made his spring debut yesterday.
