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Patriots Mailbag: Wrapping up the 2023 regular season

• Andrew Caraway on Twitter: "Patriots Trade back to let's say 10 overall to get Penix Jr. what kind of capital could they acquire and could this help them rebuild quicker by adding a few extra top 100 picks? / Twitter"

  Patriots Trade back to let's say 10 overall to get Penix Jr. what kind of capital could they acquire and could this help them rebuild quicker by adding a few extra top 100 picks?

  Luckily there’s a very similar trade last year to use as precedent here. Arizona traded back from third to 12th with the Houston Texas. The trade ended up being…

  From Arizona:

  –3rd overall pick (1st round)
  –105th overall pick (4th round)

  From Houston:

  –12th overall pick (1st round)
  –33rd overall pick (2nd round)
  –2024 1st round pick
  –2024 3rd round pick

  So, that’s a good baseline for what kind of trade we’d be talking about. The big difference is that last year the top top quarterbacks were off the board, while this  year is a three quarterback class.

  If the Patriots trade down with Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or Jayden Daniels on the board their return could end up being greater (maybe that future third becomes a second, or they don’t have to give up the fourth). At the same time if they fall to five or six in the order with a win this week, and none of the top quarterbacks are left, then you might be looking at three top-100 picks instead of four, or maybe only the two top-50 picks instead of three.

  Granted if we’re talking about the best way to expedite the rebuild, nothing would help more than hitting on a franchise quarterback. Passing on Williams (who will likely go 1/1 so he’s less relevant here), Maye, or Daniels just to add assets isn’t worth it if the Patriots truly believe in any or all of those guys. Even if they believe in Penix as well, he has natural concerns (age, injury history) that the others don’t, even if the team sees them as comparable players. Instead, this scenario is much more applicable if the Patriots win on Sunday.

• I know there’s a ton of (justifiable) focus on fixing the offense, but let’s say the Patriots are fully committed to adding a WR, drafting a QB, and taking a guy like Patrick Paul in round 2. If all that happens, how would you feel about spending at the top of the market at EDGE?

  — Andrew Foster (@Belgabad3435) January 2, 2024

  That depends on what happens with the internal free agents. If Matthew Judon (entering the final year of his deal and has no guaranteed money in 2024) and Anfernee Jennings are back, the Patriots don’t need more than a rotational third or fourth edge guy.

  Losing one or both of those guys would create a much larger need. If that were to happen edge would move significantly up the list of Patriots offseason needs. In that case, using a Day 2 pick or handing out a big contract at the position would make a lot more sense.

   

• Andrew DeSilva on Twitter: "How would Penix for into Bill O'Brians offense?His super power appears to be his deep ball, but historically the Patriots are a short to intermediate passing offense. Would his greatest skills be wasted in NE?Or would he help "unlock" Thorntons potential as a deep threat? / Twitter"

  How would Penix for into Bill O'Brians offense?His super power appears to be his deep ball, but historically the Patriots are a short to intermediate passing offense. Would his greatest skills be wasted in NE?Or would he help "unlock" Thorntons potential as a deep threat?

  One thing Bill O’Brien has historically done very well is adjust his offense to the quarterback that is running it. What he ran with Tom Brady in New England had its differences from what he ran with Deshaun Watson in Houston, and what he’s run this year. Even Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe seem to be running slightly modified versions of the same offense.

  As for Michael Penix, if he was the Patriots quarterback O’Brien probably wouldn’t be running what he’s running right now. While I wouldn’t expect him to go full air-raid there would probably be more of a vertical element. Another area Penix could succeed is in O’Brien’s RPO package, given how well he sees the field and his quick release.

  That doesn’t mean O’Brien would be the best offensive coordinator for Penix. Guys like Kellen Moore, Bobby Slowik, or Shane Waldron run systems that would do more to take advantage of Penix’s deep ball ability. At the same time, it’s not like Penix would be a fish out of water in O’Brien’s system assuming O’Brien makes the nessesary tweaks.

• Don't F**K With UConn on Twitter: "Alex, you guys mentioned on Catch-22 that Tyron Smith may be too old of on option at Tackle. I get the recent injury concerns, but he's still putting up strong metrics on PFF. I see him as free agent target #1, perhaps to pair with draft talent like A. Mims or P. Paul. Thoughts? / Twitter"

  Alex, you guys mentioned on Catch-22 that Tyron Smith may be too old of on option at Tackle. I get the recent injury concerns, but he's still putting up strong metrics on PFF. I see him as free agent target #1, perhaps to pair with draft talent like A.

  I didn’t mean to say Tyron Smith is too old to be seriously considered a Patriots signing. The point was more that the top projected tackle in free agency is a guy who, at 33-years-old, is more of a year-to-year bridge option than a long-term fix at the position – unlike multiple players available at the position last year. Smith isn’t a bad option for the Patriots in certain scenarios, but him being the top players available illustrates the lack of depth in this year’s free agency tackle class overall.

• J Smooth on Twitter: "With the rumors that there may be a surprise move in the NFC East would you have any interest in Brian Daboll if he's let go? Where would he rank for head coaching candidates if he's available / Twitter"

  With the rumors that there may be a surprise move in the NFC East would you have any interest in Brian Daboll if he's let go? Where would he rank for head coaching candidates if he's available

  Brian Daboll wouldn’t be at the top of my list of ideal Patriots coaching candidates, but he’d certainly be on it. He has a proven track record of quarterback development, sparking Josh Allen’s ascension (and Allen hasn’t looked like the same player since he left) and getting the most out of Daniel Jones in 2022. Still, the way the Giants have fallen apart this year without Jones is concerning.

  If the Patriots do like what they’ve seen from the Giants though and Daboll isn’t available, Mike Kafka is another name to know. A backup quarterback in the NFL from 2010-2015 (including a very brief stop with the Patriots in 2013), he was the quarterbacks coach in Kansas City throughout Patrick Mahomes’ rise from 2018-2021, also serving as the passing game coordinator in 2020 and 2021. Daboll hired him as the Giants’ offensive coordinator when he took the job in New York in 2022.

• Ed Helinski 🇺🇸🇵🇱 on Twitter: "No matter how the coaching scenario plays out, which players might be playing their last game for the Patriots? / Twitter"

  No matter how the coaching scenario plays out, which players might be playing their last game for the Patriots?

  The Patriots have 25 pending free agents, which we’ll break down once the season is over. But some notable names that could be playing their final game for the Patriots his week include Matthew Slater (a strong retirement candidate), Hunter Henry (if he plays), Trent Brown (if he plays), Ezekiel Elliott, Kyle Dugger, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, and Mike Onwenu.

• ashley1992 on Twitter: "Hi Alex, which prospects do you think helped or hurt their draft status after yesterday's games? / Twitter"

  Hi Alex, which prospects do you think helped or hurt their draft status after yesterday's games?

  Ahead of doing a deeper dive, here are some initial ups and downs from each school based on my initial watch…

  Stock up:

  –RB Blake Corum, Michigan
  –WR Roman Wilson, Micghian
  –EDGE Chris Braswell, Alabama
  –QB Michael Penix, Washington
  –WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington
  –DE Bralen Trice, Washington
  –CB Jabbar Muhammad, Washington
  –TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas

  Stock down:

  –QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
  –OT J.C. Latham, Alabama
  –OT Christian Jones, Texas

• https://x.com/Mark_1878_/status/1742315037602013579?s=20

  I still don’t think it’s a lock Bill Belichick doesn’t return next year. As for the rest of the question, it certainly seems like the Patriots will go with a somewhat-familiar name at head coach. Jerod Mayo is the most logical candidate. In recent weeks there’s been more smoke about Mike Vrabel potentially being done in Tennessee, and I don’t think he would be a bad option either. Brian Flores is another name I like.

  For General Manager, the Patriots-linked options are thinner. Matt Groh could be retained and given full control, but it may make more sense to bring in a fresher face. A name I’ve thrown out a few times is Alex Peters, who is currently the assistant GM for the San Francisco 49ers and worked for the Patriots during the first dynasty as a scout.

  As for quarterback, where are the Patriots picking in the draft? Assuming Caleb Williams is off the table at 1/1, I like Jayden Daniels as the next best option for the Patriots. If they win this week though he may be tough to get along with Drake Maye, in which case I think Michael Penix is the guy. Whatever happens, I do think the first-round pick should be a quarterback.

• Notsohappyagain on Twitter: "Trading down a little bit to get another first round pick and take a QB and a LT? Will it be possible? Is it a good choice? / Twitter"

  Trading down a little bit to get another first round pick and take a QB and a LT? Will it be possible? Is it a good choice?

  It’s possible but very risky, and something NFL teams almost never do. The last time a team traded down in the top 10 and still took a quarterback was 1995, when the Carolina Panthers moved from one to five to take Kerry Collins (while Steve McNair went third overall to the then-Houston Oilers). Given the important nature of the quarterback position, it’s understandable that teams don’t want to risk losing ‘their guy.’

  The more likely scenario is trading back up into the first round from the top second-round pick. That would be a good way to add an NFL-ready tackle.

• Catflasher on Twitter: "Who do you as candidates to be a receiving back? Are there guys entering the draft? Is there someone in free agency? Could it be a roll filled by a short yardage reciever. Greg Dortch comes to mind as that type of player who could be converted to that role. / Twitter"

  Who do you as candidates to be a receiving back? Are there guys entering the draft? Is there someone in free agency? Could it be a roll filled by a short yardage reciever. Greg Dortch comes to mind as that type of player who could be converted to that role.

  First off, the Patriots do need to add a true receiving-down back. It’s a crucial role in their offense that has gone unfilled for multiple years now. Not only does having a player with a skillset tailored to that role help in passing situations, but also allows the early-down back to stay fresh and be more effective.

  Before we get to some names, I’ll just say I’m not a huge fan of changing players positions if it’s not needed. Specifically in this case, Dortch certainly has the quick-twitch ability you’d look for in the pass-catching part of the role, but it’s important to remember pass blocking is also a very important trait here. That’s going to be a big learning curve for a converted wideout.

  As for some names to know…

  Free agency:

  –D’Andre Swift
  –Antonio Gibson
  –Devin Singletary

  NFL Draft:

  –Bucky Irving, Oregon
  –Donovan Edwards, Michigan
  –Cody Schrader, Missouri
  –Dylan Laube, UNH

• Alex Barth is a writer and digital producer for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Looking for a podcast guest? Let him know on Twitter @RealAlexBarth or via email at abarth@985TheSportsHub.com.