Trade deadline impacts outlook of Sunday’s Patriots matchup
Given their issues on the offensive line this season, the New England Patriots’ Week 9 meeting with the Washington Commanders this Sunday seemed like a potential mismatch, given Washington’s talent up front. However, Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline certainly changed the outlook of that matchup.
Prior to the game, the Commanders ended up being one of the league’s big sellers on Tuesday. They traded away not one but two of their top edge rushers, in Montez Sweat and Chase Young. That’s two less pass-rushing threats the Patriots will have to face this week.
READ MORE:
—Patriots stand pat at NFL trade deadline
—8 takeaways from the Patriots’ loss to the Dolphins
—Week 8 Ups & Downs
Prior to the trade deadline Sweat (6.5) and Young (5) ranked first and second in sacks on the Commanders respectively. Sweat was dealt to the Chicago Bears for a second-round pick. Young, who the Patriots reported called on to “check on the price” ended up going to the San Francisco 49ers for a third-round pick.
Even though Sweat and Young are gone, the Commanders do still have threats up front. Washington held onto two of the top defensive interior rushers in the league in Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. Allen ranks fifth among all interior defenders with 28 pressures this season, while Payne ranks 27th with 17 in eight games.
It will be up to the interior of the Patriots’ offensive line to keep those two players in check. That group has shifted in recent weeks with Cole Strange and rookies Sidy Sow and Atonio Mafi rotating through the two guard spots against Miami. That trio has allowed a combined 38 pressures in 504 combined pass-blocking snaps through eight games. This week though they should be able to get extra help with the Commanders not posing as much of a threat off the edge as initially thought.
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South Beach horrors haunt Patriots again: 8 takeaways from Sunday's loss in Miami
Defense fails to get off the field
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 29: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins signals for a first down during the second quarter against the New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on October 29, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
There’s plenty to critique the Patriots’ offense for in this game, but we’re actually going to start with the defense this week. On multiple occasions the defense had opportune chances to get off the field and couldn’t creating scoring chances for Miami.
The first such instances came on the same drive early in the second quarter. On the first set of plays, a holding penalty and tackle for loss by Keion White had Miami staring at a 3rd & 14 from their own 48-yard line. The Patriots allowed Tyreek Hill to pick up a 10-yard catch-and-run setting up a chance for the Dolphins to go for it on 4th down, which Tua Tagovailoa converted with a scramble up the middle of the field.
On the same drive just five plays later, Miami had another 4th down from the Patriots’ 21-yard line after a Kyle Dugger sack. Again, the Patriots gave up enough yardage – in the form of a 13-yard catch by Jaylen Waddle – to give Miami another shot at a fourth-down conversion. Again, Miami converted, this time with Hill catching the ball in the flat and running.
That drive concluded with Hill’s one-yard touchdown catch over J.C. Jackson. While a pass interference call on the previous 3rd & 6 was certainly questionable, the Patriots could have avoided the situation entirely by either not giving up a chunk play on 3rd & long, or with a 4th down stop. They had multiple chances at both.
Fourth downs were a problem for the Patriots throughout the game. The Dolphins went 3-for-3 on 4th down in this game, despite having missed seven 4th downs in a row coming into the game, and having gone 2-for-10 for the season through the first seven weeks.
In the second half the Patriots had another chance to make a mark on the game. After the offense scored a touchdown with 8:30 to go to make it a once-score game, the defense needed to get them the ball back to have a chance to win the game.
Instead they allowed the Dolphins to march right down the field, going on a 10-play, 75-yard drive that took almost six minutes off the clock and finished with Waddle scoring one of the most wide-open touchdowns the NFL will see this year. Rather than having a chance to win the game, the offense had to go into scramble mode with under three minutes to go, and ended up turning the ball over on downs.
It’s no secret that for this Patriots team to win games, the defense has to lead the way. On Sunday, they weren’t able to do that and the result reflected that reality.
What was the plan for Tyreek Hill?
Oct 29, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) runs with the football against the New England Patriots during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Despite losing the Week 2 meeting against Miami, the Patriots received praise for their plan to cover Tyreek Hill. Down Jonathan Jones – who typically handles Hill when the Patriots face him – the Patriots held Hill to five catches on nine targets, for 40 yards and a touchdown. Rookie Christian Gonzalez was a big part of that effort, highlighted by his interception on one of those targets.
On Sunday the Patriots certainly missed Gonzalez, and weren’t able to duplicated that Week 2 effort. Hill toasted the Patriots for eight catches on 13 targets, for 112 catches and a touchdown. His longest catch – for 42 yards – eclipsed his Week 2 yardage total on its own.
Instead of turning to Jones with Gonzalez out, the Patriots played a lot of zone – soft zone – against Miami. Those coverages often put J.C. Jackson or Myles Bryant on Hill. Jones didn’t end up in coverage on Hill as much, despite seemingly being healthy after being removed from the injury report (he was dealing with an ankle injury) this week.
Once Hill got going, the Patriots’ defensive adjustments opened the door for the Dolphins’ other playmakers. There was no bigger example of this than on the Dolphins’ put-away touchdown, when multiple Patriots defenders followed Hill’s pre-snap motion leaving Jaylen Waddle wide open over the middle. Waddle finished with seven catches for 121 yards – meaning Hill and Waddle both went for over 100 yards after the Patriots hadn’t allow a 100-yard receiver through their first seven games (ironically, Waddle had the previous high, going for 86 yards in Week 2).
Christian Barmore did his part when asked
Oct 29, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore (90) sacks Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
When he was on the field, Christian Barmore played yet another strong game. He finished with (unofficially) five tackles, a sack, another QB hit, and another tackle for loss. This continues a string of strong performances for the third-year defensive tackle out of Alabama.
That’s what made it puzzling that his usage seemed to dip after he played 63 percent of the defensive snaps last week. With the Dolphins playing with three backups on the interior of their offensive line, it seemed like a great chance for Barmore to wreak havoc up the middle.
We’ll see what his final snap count was when the usage rates come out on Monday morning. But either Barmore should have been a bigger part of the game and wasn’t, or the Patriots didn’t give him the opportunity.
Wide receiver usage
Oct 29, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (7) runs in for a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Last week the Patriots changed up the way they used their wide receivers, which seemed to open up the offense. The question was, would those changes stay this week with JuJu Smith-Schuster returning from a concussion.
Ultimately, they did. Kendrick Bourne and Demario Douglas remained the team’s top two receivers, with DeVante Parker and Jalen Reagor rotating into the third spot in ’11’ personnel. Early on it worked out, with Bourne and Douglas making plays early.
Meanwhile, Smith-Schuster didn’t play until injuries thrust him onto the field late in the game. The Patriots appeared to be O.K. with ‘benching’ their big offensive offseason acquisition after a poor start to the season.
However, it looks like the Patriots will have to shake up their wide receiver usage again moving forward. Bourne left the game early with a knee injury (he’ll undergo an MRI on Monday to learn the extent) and Parker took a shot to the head that knocked him out of the game as well.
Assuming those two players miss time, the Patriots will likely need to turn to Smith-Schuster in a more complete role in the coming weeks. There will likely also be chances for Tyquan Thornton and Kayshon Boutte – both healthy scratches on Sunday – to earn playing time.
A flash from Demario Douglas
Oct 29, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins linebacker David Long Jr. (51) dives for New England Patriots wide receiver Demario Douglas (81) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Want a positive from the Patriots’ offense on Sunday? Because believe it or not there was one, early in the game.
Kendrick Bourne opened the scoring for the day on a 24-yard catch-and-run touchdown. However, it was Demario Douglas that set the play up. Multiple defenders followed Douglas up the seam on his route, leaving the middle of the field wide open for Bourne.
Throughout the offseason, especially during the DeAndre Hopkins saga (Hopkins had a monster day on Sunday, by the way), we talked about the Patriots needing to add a coverage-dictating wide receiver to open things up for the other members of the offense. While Douglas is hardly at that level yet, there were a few instances where the Dolphins clearly focused on taking him out of the pattern, forcing Mac Jones to look elsewhere.
“I was shocked,” Douglas said after the game when asked about drawing double teams, via Andrew Callahan of The Boston Herald. “I didn’t think I would get doubled this early. That’s crazy.”
While Douglas hardly took over the game, the attention the Dolphins paid to him is notable. Clearly the hype goes behind his production, with other teams seeing a potential play-maker on tape.
Mac Jones’ interception
Oct 29, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5) intercepts a pass intended to New England Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (84) during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
It seems like if you asked 50 different people what they think went wrong on Mac Jones’ crucial second-quarter interception, you’d get 50 different answers. Anyways, here’s mine.
The play design itself was actually pretty good. After throwing multiple smoke screens to Demario Douglas early in the game the Patriots faked the quick pass out to Douglas, which caused multiple Dolphins defenders to jump the play. So far, so good.
With linebacker David Long Jr. breaking towards the line of scrimmage out of his zone to react to the pump fake, room was opened for Kendrick Bourne up the left sideline. Meanwhile, Ramsey initially carries Parker up the seam. That’s where things went wrong.
With Long and Ramsey both running the other way Bourne is open, and Jones appears to have two choices to get him the football. He can either put the ball on his outside shoulder away from both defenders at the 15-yard line for a back-shoulder completion, or lead him up the sideline and give him a chance to make Ramsey miss. To lead him though, Jones really needs to zip the ball to him so Ramsey can’t close and break the pass up.
Instead, Jones lofted a touch pass up the sideline. The lack of velocity on the ball, combined with Ramsey’s elite instincts and quickness, allowed him not only to close and break the pass up, but intercept the ball clean.
Why did Jones throw a touch pass instead of trying to thread more of a needle? Based on Jones’ comments after the game, the read wasn’t the issue. Rather, it was the execution.
“I knew the coverage,” Jones explained, saying he saw Ramsey initially fall off the coverage. “I just made a bad throw – really late. Didn’t really drive it.”
Trade deadline watch
Oct 29, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New England Patriots safety Kyle Dugger (23) stiff arms Miami Dolphins safety Jevon Holland (8) while running back an interception during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
As mentioned above, the Patriots now turn their attention to the NFL trade deadline this Tuesday. With this loss, they seem in line to be sellers.
One player who could be traded is Kyle Dugger, and Dugger certainly put on a showcase for interested teams on Sunday. He finished the day with a game-high nine tackles, including a sack and a touchdown-saving hit stick on the goal line in the second half. He also recorded an interception.
Meanwhile, Josh Uche was inactive for this game as trade rumors swirled this weekend. He’s another player to watch.
