Patriots vs Saints Prediction
The Patriots and Saints will meet on Sunday, where the home team looks to avoid its third loss at Gillette Stadium. The road team lost in New Orleans last week without scoring a touchdown in the dome. Points will be hard to come by, as both defenses give up less than 20 PPG. They are also 2 of 3 teams in the NFL this year yet to go past the 20 point threshold. I’m backing one of the teams to go over that number this week.
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – OCTOBER 01: Derek Carr #4 of the New Orleans Saints attempts a pass during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Caesars Superdome on October 01, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
That’s the big question mark in this game, both quarterbacks are struggling. Check out these stats per The Ringer.
Mac Jones vs Derek Carr
Yards per attempt
T-27) Mac – 6.2
T-27) Carr – 6.2
Passer rating
25) Mac – 80.8
26) Carr – 80.1
Completion Percentage
20) Carr – 64.5%
22) Mac – 63.7%
Points per Drive
27) Saints – 1.28
29) Pats – 1.13
What a reminder of life after Tom Brady and Drew Brees. One area the Saints have struggled this season is the Red Zone.
TD percentage
32) Saints – 33.3%
Red zone trips
8 – tied for the 3rd fewest with The Jets and ahead of only The Bengals & The Steelers
The Patriots will be without Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez but should have success against Carr.
Check out my breakdown on “The Weekly Spread” on NBC Sports Boston regarding the line movement in this game. Mac Jones’ record as a favorite and my thoughts on the total in this game. It won’t be pretty, but the Patriots need this game more.
The total in the game is 38.5, and it opened at 40. It should be a grind of a game, but I think the Patriots play better at home and find a soft spot in the Saints defense.
Prediction:
Patriots win 24-17
