Patriots insider Phil Perry says game vs. Cowboys is “winnable”

NBC Sports Boston Patriots insider Phil Perry joined Zolak and Bertrand and laid out the reasons he believes that the Patriots might be able to steal a win from the Cowboys in Week 4 on Sunday afternoon.

"I think you're actually getting this Cowboys team at a pretty good time. And for me, this is sort of a change the narrative kind of game. If you're the New England Patriots, tell us you're not a bad team. Matthew Judon, your receivers. You guys are better than we think? All right. This is when you get your opportunity to change the narrative, because if you beat the Cowboys, a team that, in my opinion, should win double digit games and I think is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, some of that circumstantial, the NFC is not very good this year, but I think they are legitimate Super Bowl contender this year. And yet I think this is a winnable game for the Patriots. "Winnable". Not predicting them to win. But it's there for you. The opportunity is there for you if you are a good team. If you're the kind of team that should be feared week to week, if you're going to truly make some noise in January, finally, at some point here in the near future, this is the kind of game you should win. Because if you lose, we all just shrug our shoulders and say, "well, here was another one, another game against a pretty good team. Patriots couldn't finish it." If you win. I think the storylines start to shift." 

The New England Patriots typically want to make opposing offenses beat them a certain way. There's a wrench in that plan when it comes to Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys.

The Patriots defense doesn't always look the same way every week, the 2023 version of New England still wants to make the opponent earn every single yard and finish every single drive. Taking away big plays down the field has long been a staple.

But here's the thing: the 2023 Cowboys are just fine with that.

Three weeks in under new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and his West Coast-style system, the Cowboys have been willing and able to orchestrate long drives while also protecting the football. They lead the league in plays per drive at 7.7, with the fifth-lowest turnover rate (3.4 percent), according to Pro Football Reference.

Prescott has thrown just one interception so far, and that's the Cowboys' only giveaway so far this season, tying them with four other teams (49ers, Chargers, Packers, Seahawks) for the fewest in the league. Predictably, with a stingy offense and dynamic defense, the Cowboys lead the league in turnover differential (plus-6). If you're curious, the Patriots are tied for 20th at minus-2.

So, how do the Patriots slow down an offense that can string plays together without turning it over? Would the Patriots defense take the usual approach against an offense that actually wants to play the way they want them to play?

There's still a path for the Pats defense to do their thing in a quest to slow Dallas down. It just might look a little different than what they've shown so far in 2023. But they may have the personnel to pull it off.

It's fair to expect a much different-looking Cowboys offense when they take the field against the Patriots on Sunday at AT&T Stadium. Last time these teams met, less than two calendar years ago, they had themselves an instant classic big-play shootout.

In perhaps the biggest and best play of Mac Jones' young career, the Patriots quarterback hit Kendrick Bourne in stride for a 75-yard touchdown with just 2:11 left in regulation, putting his team in position to win the game.

Unfortunately, the Pats defense couldn't get one last stop, as Prescott hit All-Pro receiver CeeDee Lamb for a 24-yard pass on third-and-25, setting up a game-tying field goal. Prescott would later connect with Lamb for a game-winning 35-yard touchdown in overtime, completing what was technically a comeback win for Dallas.

Fast-forward to 2023, and the longest offensive touchdown of the Cowboys' season so far is a 15-yard pass from Prescott to running back Rico Dowdle, and the pass was completed behind the line of scrimmage. So you can expect a different-looking Cowboys offense on Sunday.

With Schottenheimer coordinating the offense and McCarthy calling plays, the Cowboys have evolved into a unit that aims to pick you apart in the short-to-intermediate areas. To illustrate this, Prescott is 33rd out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks in the NFL in average intended air yards (IAY), with just 5.5 air yards per pass attempt, down from 8.3 in 2022 (via Next Gen Stats).

The system has also made better use of Lamb's skills after the catch. Lamb ranks 70th (!) among wide receivers in average air yards per target (7.9 yards, down from 10.3 in 2022), but 10th in average YAC (6.7 yards, up from 4.8 in 2022).

"[Schottenheimer] does a great job of attacking defenses, coming from the whole [Kyle] Shanahan tree and so forth, West Coast with Shanahan," Bill Belichick said Friday. "They run the ball a lot. [Tony] Pollard’s got a lot of carries. They’ve got a lot of explosive players, starting with Cooks and Lamb, but they’re well-balanced – formations, they do a good job with game planning, obviously the quarterback’s really good.

"You know, Mike [McCarthy] has a well-balanced offense and well-balanced team. That’s what’s hard, is it’s not just one thing. You’ve got to deal with a lot of different problems."

As Bill Murray said in "Ghostbusters" when they encountered a free-roaming vaporous apparition in a library ... "So what do we do?"

The Patriots hope it's Prescott who's seeing ghosts on Sunday. But whatever happens, it's unlikely we see the Patriots defense deployed the same way it was against Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins in Week 2. That game plan was tailored heavily toward eliminating big plays down the field, even more so than usual. The Patriots often gave a unique look of not one, not two, but three deep safeties.

That approach was largely successful, when it came to the big plays. But Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel were happy to attack the Patriots with a variety of weapons and engineer long drives, and they were even more successful in a big road win.

Prescott, McCarthy and the Cowboys actually want to move the ball this way. But that doesn't mean the Patriots aren't equipped to slow it down.

It wouldn't be surprising if the Patriots still utilized three safeties against the Cowboys, because "Big Nickel" (three safeties, two cornerbacks) has often been their general grouping. But it stands to reason that the safeties could be used differently than they were against Miami.

It's possible the Patriots go with just one deep safety and flood the box, like they might against a dynamic running game. Tackling is always important, but it's extra-important against this offense. Expect guys like Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers to be active around the ball.

Sunday will also be a nice test for rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who came into the league with tackling as one of his question marks. He's done pretty well so far, with 16 total tackles, tied for 14th among cornerbacks. His outstanding start earned him Defensive Rookie of the Month honors, the first for a Patriot since Chandler Jones in 2012.

Despite the need to minimize yards after the catch with sound tackling, the Cowboys could also use a wide variety of route combinations in the passing game that would stress the secondary from a pure coverage standpoint. But the likelihood is that most plays are going to develop within 10-15 yards of the line of scrimmage.

"[Lamb's] a great receiver, definitely," Gonzalez said Wednesday. "They're all great receivers, like I've been touching on. They're athletic. They make big plays. So, just excited for the matchup."

With all this in mind, the Patriots may actually dare the Cowboys to go deep. Question is, will McCarthy, Schottenheimer, and Prescott recognize that? Will they be prepared for that? Will they actually DO that?

The danger, here: we already know the Cowboys are capable of throwing the ball deep and burning teams down the field. But this year, they've been willing to be patient and complete longer drives with shorter plays. The Patriots are willing to evolve from week to week ... are they?

This is the most fascinating matchup in the game. The Cowboys defense gets the headlines, for obvious reasons. Mac Jones will hog the headlines in New England (but perhaps for different reasons).

But from a pure football standpoint? The chess match between McCarthy's offense and Belichick's defense will be the feature presentation. It's just a question of how the movie ends.

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Matt Dolloff is a writer and podcaster for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Check out all of Matt's content here.