Mike Giardi: DeAndre Hopkins deal will only look worse for Patriots
At long last, the DeAndre Hopkins watch has finally come to an end, and unfortunately it didn’t go the Patriots way. The Pats were in the running to land the touted wide receiver with the hopes of revamping a lackluster offense that finished 26th in the NFL last year.
Hopkins ultimately signed a two-year, $26 million deal with the Titans, including an additional $3 million in incentives for each year. He was released by Arizona during the offseason after catching 64 passes and nine touchdowns.
On Monday’s edition of Zolak and Bertrand, NFL Insider Mike Giardi joined the show to break down the logistics of DeAndre Hopkins’ newly minted contract with the Tennessee Titans.
DeAndre Hopkins of the Arizona Cardinals catches the ball for a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Oct. 30, 2022 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
Here’s how Giardi broke it down…
Beetle: Mike, I think the deal for Hopkins was reasonable. It seems like you would agree with that. I made a prediction a couple of minutes ago that once the deal is filed and we get more details and hear more about the guarantees or the structure over the two years and a year or two is basically a year you can get out of. I think once we know those details, the Patriots are going to look worse than they do right now for not signing this deal. Agree or disagree?
Giardi: That’s the same sense that I’m getting about that second year. You know, the bottom line for him was, okay, now because of when he was released, you’re not going to get the OBJ contract, but you wanted to get as close to it as possible. And that will be about 15 million guaranteed. This looks like 12. And then incentives. So, you know, he got as close as he could, you know, from talking to all the teams around the league. And I think that second year is going to be a dummy year, and I think the cap is going to jump too.
DeAndre Hopkins of the Arizona Cardinals during a game against the San Francisco 49ers on Oct. 10, 2021 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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The Titans probably even offered better incentives than the Patriots for DeAndre Hopkins
For DeAndre Hopkins, it was as simple as whoever offered the best contract.
And anyone who’s followed Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots over the past two-plus decades saw coming, they were not going to be the team to come to Hopkins with the best offer. That’s despite having more room to spend to the cap; they had a $9.3 million edge in cap space in the hunt for Hopkins, according to OverTheCap.com.
Despite that, the Pats’ offer for Hopkins “wasn’t in the same ballpark” as the one from the Titans. As reported by Ian Rapoport, Hopkins’ contract with Tennessee is for two years and a base value of $26 million, with a chance to make up to $3M per year in incentives.
The details of New England’s offer for Hopkins haven’t been reported by anyone reliable. But it’s reasonable to assume that, based on new reports, the Titans’ incentives alone were a better offer than whatever the Patriots put on the table.
Here’s a rundown of all the factors in play…
DeAndre Hopkins’ Contract
DeAndre Hopkins of the Arizona Cardinals catches the ball for a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Oct. 30, 2022 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
Just the base value of Hopkins’ deal with the Titans likely eclipsed that of the Patriots. But on top of two years and $26 million, Hopkins has $3 million per year in incentives – and they’re actually reasonable. According to Ian Rapoport, Hopkins can earn the full $3 million if he gets to 95 catches, 1,050 yards, and 10 touchdowns ($1M for each milestone).
The incentives have four tiers, meaning Hopkins can still earn $750,000 if he reaches 65 catches, 750 yards, and four touchdowns. They’re structured in such a way that they can be classified as “Not Likely To Be Earned,” since Hopkins caught 64 passes for 717 yards and three TDs in 2022, and so they won’t count against the cap.
The Patriots’ Incentives
Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots look on prior to a game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Jan. 8, 2023. (Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
While it’s unclear what the Patriots actually offered Hopkins, based on their recent history, it was likely an incentive-laden deal, probably more total incentives than the Titans’ contract.
A recent deal to point to is DeVante Parker’s recent restructure with the Patriots, which turned his contract into three years and up to $33 million. Sounds like good money. But according to Field Yates, $15.9 million of that $33M are in incentives.
Not Likely To Be Earned…
DeVante Parker and Mac Jones of the New England Patriots celebrate after completing a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Jan. 8, 2023. (Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
Of Parker’s incentives, $1.2M of them are in an annual All-Pro nod. All due respect to Parker, he could have a career year and still not be an All-Pro. So he can’t count on getting that. The rest are tied in “statistical incentives,” which are probably unlikely to be reached in real life.
Contrast that with Hopkins’ incentives, which technically were able to be classified as not likely to be earned, but are not out of the realm of possibility. Unless Treylon Burks emerges as All-Pro caliber in his second season, Hopkins could immediately become the Titans’ No. 1 wide receiver, putting a stat line of 95-1050-10 firmly in play for him.
The Teams’ Receiver Situations
Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker of the New England Patriots celebrate after Parker scored a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Oct. 2, 2022 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
You may disagree with Belichick on this one, but the Patriots head coach ostensibly didn’t make a harder push for Hopkins because he feels relatively good about what he already has at wide receiver.
There’s the aforementioned Parker, who just signed an extension, albeit the kind that opened cap space. Kendrick Bourne looked like a very good complementary receiver in Mac Jones’ rookie year before regressing under the Pats’ disastrous offensive coaching staff in 2022. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a bit of an enigma after missing much of OTAs and minicamp, but in terms of pure talent, he’s an upgrade over Jakobi Meyers. Second-year pro Tyquan Thornton has flashed high-end ability in his limited time on the field.
The Titans, meanwhile, needed a receiver much more than the Patriots did. There was a big drop-off on their depth chart after Burks, so Hopkins certainly fixes that problem. The Patriots’ problem at receiver isn’t necessarily talent, but other factors like injuries and overall commitment, which are fair to mention. But on paper, they were good before the hunt for Hopkins, and they’re still good today.
The Patriots’ Cap Situation
Head coach Bill Belichick and Mac Jones of the New England Patriots look on during pregame at Hard Rock Stadium on Sept. 11, 2022. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Yes, cap space can be maneuvered in a number of different ways, as Belichick famously said. But regardless of their cash spending, the Patriots are typically on the books spending to the cap, meaning their $17.7 million in space is bound to go somewhere.
But that doesn’t mean the Patriots actually have that much money to work with. As detailed by Pats cap expert Miguel Benzan last week, the Pats are estimated to have up to $16.6 million in expenses during the season that they need to account for on the cap. That includes injury replacements, practice squad elevations, salaries below the top-51 players, and “Not Likely To Be Earned” roster bonuses that are earned.
Trust The Process?
Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots watches his team play during a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Gillette Stadium on Dec. 24, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
So, realistically, Belichick wasn’t going to sign Hopkins unless he was able to fashion an extremely low cap number. That probably made it a huge challenge to top the Titans’ offer.
It’s frustrating that the Patriots so consistently fall short financially, but Belichick’s process is what it is, and that’s why it’s not surprising at all that they couldn’t really compete with the Titans’ offer.
What This Means For The Patriots
Mac Jones of the New England Patriots celebrates with DeVante Parker after connecting for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Jan. 8, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
There will now be a lot of public pressure on Parker to be something close to what Hopkins would’ve been, now that he’s locked in as the starting “X” outside receiver. Smith-Schuster will have pressure on him to match Meyers’ production from 2022 (4.8 catches and 57.4 yards per game), if not exceed it.
On top of that, Thornton needs to make a year-2 jump and Bourne needs a serious rebound from a season in which he got in the coaches’ doghouse, seemingly multiple times. There will be pressure on all four receivers just to stay on the field in the first place.
It’s All On Mac
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports)
Despite the questions that the Patriots may still have at wide receiver and tackle, the most pressure will be on Mac Jones to not just return to his form of his rookie year in 2021 but possibly play even better. He has a good, experienced offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien, and technically the best group of pass-catchers he’s had in his career.
The receivers, plus tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki, and running back Rhamondre Stevenson, would certainly be enough for a guy like Patrick Mahomes. Jones isn’t Mahomes, but if he’s going to be a good starting quarterback in the NFL, he should be able to make it work with the weapons he has.
