It’s the biggest lightning rod of the 2022 Patriots off-season so far: why did Bill Belichick sit out the arms race that ignited the AFC at the start of free agency?
The answer is simple: the Pats did their big 2022 spending in 2021. As Mike Reiss explained in a recent column at ESPN.com, Belichick “essentially did two years’ worth of free-agent shopping in 2021, hoping to capitalize on a depressed market.” So the Patriots’ then-record spending spree at the start of 2021 free agency (a record the Jaguars broke in 2022) makes more sense when viewed as two halves instead of a whole.
The Patriots’ biggest free agents from 2021 are in their mid-to-late-20s and enter 2022 fully healthy. Some key acquisitions signed for three seasons (Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne) or four (Matthew Judon, Jonnu Smith, Jalen Mills). Even with Smith and other free agents struggling to live up to the price tag, the infusion of fresh free-agent talent gave the 2021 Patriots an immediate boost. But this was never meant to be a one-year rush. They are not done building or developing those players.
Belichick ostensibly confirmed on Monday at the AFC coaches’ breakfast that he and the Patriots, instead of spending big for a second straight year, are looking to improve internally as last year’s additions take a step forward.
“Spent a lot of money last year. Those guys are all young, they’re under contract,” Belichick said. He later added: “I think some of the players that we have on the roster, hopefully, will take a step up. But we’ll see. We’ll have other players, there will be new players here. See what happens with them.”
The Patriots certainly aren’t done building their roster. They have 22 open spots, so even after the draft, there should be at least a few openings for free agents or potential trade acquisitions to fill out the 90.
But outside of a major, Davante Adams-esque move, the most likely road to improvement is ridden with the cars already in the garage.
Smith has the most room for improvement, and may very well be the key to the offense making a leap. That’s a scary proposition after the 26-year-old tight end made just 28 catches and was targeted only 45 times in 2021. He was credited with four drops, one of which resulted in a pick-six against the Saints. Quarterback Mac Jones had an abysmal 70.0 passer rating when targeting Smith.
However, when Smith did get the ball in his hands, he came as advertised in the YAC department. He posted 8.3 yards after catch per reception, which would’ve ranked him third among all qualifying receivers & tight ends. Also, the post-Josh McDaniels offense is likely to use more two-tight end formations, which was bizarrely rare after the team spent more than $56 million in guaranteed money on Smith and Henry. The Patriots played only 14 percent of their 2021 offensive snaps in “12” personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers). That figures to go up with Belichick playing a bigger role in offense in 2022.
At wide receiver, Nelson Agholor still projects as the “X” starter on the outside. Agholor caught just 37 passes in 15 games in the 2021 season, while posting his lowest yards per game since 2016. His offensive snaps fluctuated, and he received only two targets in the Patriots’ wild card loss to the Bills, despite playing 83 percent of snaps.
Unless the Patriots have a surprise trade up their sleeve, or draft a receiver high, they’re not likely to add one with appreciably more upside than the 28-year-old Agholor at this point.
Belichick wasn’t necessarily wrong about his assessment of the overall market, which particularly exploded for wide receivers and pass rushers. Adams and Tyreek Hill signed record-setting deals after moving in massive trade hauls, while Christian Kirk somehow got the Jaguars to commit $37 million guaranteed to him. The Chiefs signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling to an Agholor-esque deal worth $10 million annually. Ditto the Bucs and Russell Gage. Similarly, compare the $20 million AAV for 33-year-old Von Miller in Buffalo to the $14M they’re paying for Judon.
The question is whether the Patriots spent their money on the right players.
Belichick is banking on a year-two payoff for the 2021 free-agent class. That even applies to linebacker Judon, who signed a four-year deal at $14 million annually and looked like an All-Pro candidate before his production plummeted after the Pats’ bye week. Judon certainly qualifies as a cornerstone player for the life of his contract in New England, but he also could play better down the stretch.
The Patriots have notched up their free agency activity since the first wave, specifically on defense. They re-signed cornerback Malcolm Butler for a surprising second stint, and on Tuesday agreed to a one-year deal with safety Jabrill Peppers. The latter is exactly the type of free agent we should’ve expected in 2022: still young (Peppers is 26 years old), depressed asset (coming off an ACL injury), but big-time potential (former first-round pick).
But for the biggest leap in talent and production, the Patriots are going to have to look within. Based on Belichick’s comments, that is precisely the plan.
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Bill Belichick fields questions on Malcolm Butler, free agency and more
It’s been a while since reporters have had direct access to Belichick, and there’s plenty to ask the Patriots head coach about since the start of the 2022 off-season. Belichick was his typical concise self, but took the time at the NFL league meeting to field questions about the whole range of Patriots topics. Here are the most notable things Belichick addressed, in so many words.
On the return of Malcolm Butler…
Malcolm Butler #21 of the New England Patriots reacts with Eric Rowe #25 after intercepting Jared Goff #16 of the Los Angeles Rams during the first half at Gillette Stadium on December 4, 2016 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
On re-signing Butler: “He indicated a desire to play this year, and we worked through the process with Malcolm like we do with every player. Obviously we know him, but he came up [for a visit] and, so, we signed him. Look forward to having him back.”
On Super Bowl LII: “That’s all old news.”
On his relationship with Butler now: “Good, great, glad to have him back.”
On free agency…
Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots looks on against the Buffalo Bills during the first half in the AFC Wild Card playoff game at Highmark Stadium on January 15, 2022 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
On the lack of spending this year: “Spent a lot of money last year. Those guys are all young, they’re under contract.”
On the future outlook for the roster: “I think some of the players that we have on the roster, hopefully, will take a step up. But we’ll see. We’ll have other players, there will be new players here. See what happens with them.”
On the offensive coaching staff…
Head Coach Joe Judge of the New York Giants leaves the field after being defeated by the Washington Football Team 22-7 at MetLife Stadium on January 09, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
On Joe Judge and Matt Patricia coaching the offense: “Great to have Joe Judge back, and Matt [Patricia], of course. They’re two really good coaches, along with some of the other coaches we have offensively, [tight ends coach] Nick Caley, [wide receivers/kick returners coach] Troy [Brown], and so forth, guys that were here last year. We’re working through it. [We’ll] do the best we can here.”
On replacing Josh McDaniels: “I think Matt and Joe are pretty good coaches. Josh is a great coach, but we’ve gone through that in multiple years.”
On the assistants’ specific roles: “Everybody will have a defined role, like they always do. Again, the off-season’s the off-season. Once we get to getting on the field, coaching the players, game-planning and things like that, that’ll all work itself out.”
On who’s calling the offensive plays: “We won’t be calling any for a while. I don’t know any games that are on.”
On giving official titles: “I’m not big on titles. We have jobs to do. We’ll do the jobs.”
On Matt Patricia’s role…
Senior football advisor Matt Patricia of the New England Patriots stands on the field before their game against the Dallas Cowboys at Gillette Stadium on October 17, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
“Broad role, very broad. He does a lot of things, helps me a lot of ways. … He does a lot of things, he has a lot of experience, he’s done things when he was here and of course he had experience in Detroit, then last year, things like the COVID rules and that type of thing. Matt’s had a lot of different roles for us. Like I said, he’s been a big help to me and the organization.”
On new Director of Player Personnel Matt Groh…
Dec 6, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick gestures to quarterback Mac Jones (not pictured) against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
“Matt’s done a tremendous job for us. Very smart, very detailed. Obviously has a great football background with his dad, his family, growing up in football. Scouted multiple areas for us. He’s had multiple responsibilities, from area scouts on the west coast, to the southeast. Regional scout, national scout, and really put the draft together last year as the director of college scouting.
“With Dave [Ziegler] leaving, I feel like he’s the best person to step into the personnel job, and he’s done a great job. He’s as good as anybody we’ve had in that position.”
On Tom Brady un-retiring…
Jan 23, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) reacts during the first half against the Los Angeles Rams in a NFC Divisional playoff football game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
“You’ll have to talk to Tom about all that. But Tom’s played a long time, nothing he does surprises me.”
On the Shaq Mason trade…
Shaq Mason of the New England Patriots gets ready for a play in the second quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Joe Scarnici/Getty Images)
“Felt like that was in the best interest [of] the team.”
On whether they tried to keep JC Jackson…
Aug 19, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New England Patriots defensive back J.C. Jackson (27) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
“Sure, we talked to all our players, we talked to all our free-agent players, we re-signed quite a few and some we didn’t re-sign.”
On the Brian Flores lawsuit…
Head coach Brian Flores of the Miami Dolphins takes the field during introductions prior to the game against the New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on January 09, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
“I can’t comment on it.”
On potential changes to overtime rules…
Oct 17, 2021; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) makes the catch and runs the ball for the game winning touchdown against the New England Patriots in overtime at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
“There was a little bit of discussion [Sunday]. I’m sure there will be more discussion, see what everybody has to say. … I mean, there’s a lot of different arguments for various proposals, gonna sort them out here.”
On re-signing Trent Brown…
Aug 19, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New England Patriots offensive tackle Trent Brown (77) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
“Good to have Trent Brown back, yeah, glad we were able to work it out. Glad we were able to work it out with all the players we re-signed. … He played well when he played [in 2021], he missed half the year, so hopefully we’ll be able to get more play time from him this year. But, he’s a quality player.”
On Josh McDaniels leaving for the Raiders and taking others with him…
Josh McDaniels of the New England Patriots stands on the field prior to the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on November 18, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
“Yeah, no. I mean, Josh is a great coach. I’m sure that he feels like it’s a great opportunity, that’s why he took it. Other than against us, I hope he does well. I’m sure he will do well. He’s an outstanding coach and some of the people that are with him, they’re very good, too. But it all worked out well.
“It was an opportunity we couldn’t provide. He’ll be hard to replace, but like I said, I feel like we have really good coaches on our staff and that’s what we’ll do.”
Who are the Patriots' most valuable trade targets at wide receiver?
It’s unclear how likely any of these trades would even be, but if Belichick wants to bring a talented and cheap receiver, or at least someone with upside or someone who fits what they want to do, these are the best options.
A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown #11 of the Tennessee Titans reacts as he leaves the field at the half during a 28-16 win over the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on November 07, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
If there were ever a make-good on a disappointing Belichick draft pick for Belichick, it’s this guy.
In an incredible gut-punch to New England, Brown admitted in 2020 that he “cried” when the Patriots passed on him – twice! – to select Harry and Joejuan Williams. He said: “I just knew I was going to the Patriots, because I was a big Patriots fan.”
The intriguing part: the Titans’ contracts are piling up, most recently with an extension for linebacker Harold Landry . They already have more than $165 million in real cash committed to their 2023 roster, including $27 million for quarterback Ryan Tannehill. So it’ll take some maneuvering and budget-related sacrifices in order to sign Brown to an extension of his own. Brown has produced enough to deserve one of the top contracts at the position.
But it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Titans ultimately decide they can’t afford that, and want to go in a different direction. So it would at least be worth a phone call to Titans GM (and former Patriots exec) Jon Robinson to see if a Brown trade is a possibility.
D.K. Metcalf (or Tyler Lockett)
DK Metcalf #14 of the Seattle Seahawks scores a second quarter touchdown against the New England Patriots at CenturyLink Field on September 20, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
Talk about a kick in the balls. It’s hard to get on the Patriots for passing on Metcalf in the draft, because almost the entire league did. But he made an immediate impact in Seattle, and in three years has 17-game averages of 75 catches, 1,100 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Spending more picks to get him after Harry would hurt.
Why would the Seahawks trade Metcalf? Because they’re in rebuilding mode after trading Russell Wilson to the Broncos. According to Jack Settleman of Snapback Sports, the Seahawks are “open to listening to offers” for Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but “nothing is imminent.”
They don’t have to trade Metcalf, though, since he’s such an excellent value. And it wouldn’t be surprising if the Seahawks instead committed to Metcalf as a piece of the foreseeable future. But a dynamic wideout isn’t of much use to a team in year one of a rebuild with no long-term quarterback in place, and may not be over the next 4-5 years, either. He’s certainly performed well enough to deserve a lucrative long-term deal somewhere, but perhaps that ends up in another uniform.
It’s a relative pipe dream for the Patriots (or anyone) to land Metcalf right now, especially considering the draft pick compensation it may require in the wake of other recent deals at the position. But he may possess the best mix of talent, production, and price tag in the league.
Brandin Cooks
Brandin Cooks #13 of the Houston Texans reacts after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on December 19, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
It’s only fitting to include Cooks on this list. He’s not cheap, though, but he’s in the final year of the deal he originally signed with the Rams. He’s on the books for $13.7 million cash and a $16.2 million cap hit, so if Belichick brought him back, he could possibly give him a short extension for some cap relief. The familiarity is there, and the Texans are a logical trade partner. Cooks is also coming off a career-best 90 catches and has topped 1,000 yards in six of his eight seasons, so he’s as proven and consistent a producer as there is in the league.
Andy Isabella
Cornerback Troy Hill #22 of the Los Angeles Rams breaks up a pass to wide receiver Andy Isabella #17 of the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at State Farm Stadium on December 06, 2020 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
And now, we have the depressed assets.
Isabella reportedly asked the Cardinals for a trade this off-season. So there’s that. He’s also a former UMass alum, and has privately expressed interest in returning to Massachusetts as a Patriot.
The problem for Isabella’s trade hopes is that the Cardinals would be selling low after drafting him 62nd overall in the 2019 draft. It’s unlikely he’d cost more than a third-round pick after making just 31 catches in 36 games so far in his career. He’s on the books for only $1.1 million, so financially, it’s not exactly necessary to unload him. Plus, they lost Christian Kirk in free agency, so they need to replace his production.
But Isabella could be a classic “change of scenery” situation in Arizona. The Cardinals still have DeAndre Hopkins, and 2021 rookie Rondale Moore seems to have already passed Isabella on the depth chart. In New England, where there’s no clear No. 1, Isabella would have the potential to become the team’s leading receiver if it clicked for him and Mac Jones.
Curtis Samuel
Curtis Samuel #10 of the Washington Football Team runs with the ball during the first half a New Orleans Saints at FedExField on October 10, 2021 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Samuel is a bounce-back candidate after groin and hamstring injuries limited him to only five games in 2021. At the same time, the Commanders are ostensibly looking to sign Terry McLaurin to an extension, which could make Samuel expendable.
Samuel is in the second year of a three-year contract with the Commanders, and all his guaranteed money has already been paid. Washington would save $8.7 million on the cap if they traded him with a post-June 1 designation.
If the Pats acquired him, Belichick may want to restructure his deal to relieve the $12.6 million cap hit in 2022, and two years averaging about $10.5M for a receiver that dealt with multiple injuries wouldn’t be an ideal move. But Samuel has always seemed like a good fit, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he were made available in D.C.
Darius Slayton
Darius Slayton #86 of the New York Giants fends off a tackle attempt by Avonte Maddox #29 of the Philadelphia Eagles in the third quarter at MetLife Stadium on November 28, 2021 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Slayton’s production dipped in 2021, with the additions of Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney to the receiver depth chart. It’s unclear what direction the Giants want to take at the position under new head coach Brian Daboll, but Slayton, a fifth-round pick in 2019, could now be expendable. Slayton as a player could be reasonably compared to Nelson Agholor, so he’d give Belichick an intriguing option on the outside if Agholor can’t improve upon a disappointing 2021.
Sterling Shepard
Aug 29, 2021; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New England Patriots cornerback Mike Jackson (35) makes a tackles on New York Giants wide receiver Sterling Shepard (3) during the second quarte at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports
Another Giant, and one that seems like an even better fit for the Patriots. Shepard is primarily a slot receiver, and while the Patriots like Jakobi Meyers there, Shepard would give them a more traditional inside option that they currently lack on the roster. He wouldn’t excite fans like more established acquisitions would, but he’d have the potential to deliver career-best numbers in Belichick’s system. The Patriots would love his consistency, as Shepard caught between 57 and 66 passes in every season from 2016-20 before playing only seven games last season.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside #19 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs with the ball prior to the preseason game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lincoln Financial Field on August 12, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Here’s an example of a 2019 draft pick who has only gone backward in the passing game and cratered his potential trade value. The Eagles drafted Arcega-Whiteside in the second round of the 2019 draft, only to take Jalen Reagor in the first round in 2020, then DeVonta Smith 11th overall in 2021. So, like Isabella in Arizona, Philly has seemingly decided quickly to move on from Arcega-Whiteside, who was primarily a special teamer in 2021. He’d represent a total flyer for Belichick, but perhaps there is untapped potential here.
Matt Dolloff is a writer and podcaster for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Have a news tip, question, or comment for Matt? Yell at him on Twitter @mattdolloff and follow him on Instagram @mattydsays. You can also email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
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