Patriots roster projection 2.0: A shift towards skill positions

Author Alex Barth

August 18th, 2021 5:00 AM

With a preseason game and two joint practices in the books since our last roster projection, it seems like an appropriate time for an update. Let’s take a look at the status of the Patriots 53-man roster heading into their second preseason game against the Eagles.

There’s a few changes from last week, notably at the skill positions. 15 players between the three spots feels excessive, but it’s what the eye test has dictated so far. Of all the players fighting for ‘at-large’ roster spots, it’s running backs and receivers that have done the most.

For the purposes of this roster projection, we’ll base it off what players have shown to this point this summer, and not project out any further. It’s as if the roster cuts happened today.

Note: Players are listed alphabetically by position. Changes from Roster Projection 1.0 are in bold.

• Quarterback (3)

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  • Brian Hoyer
  • Mac Jones
  • Cam Newton

  
  No changes here, and there likely won’t be any before the season pending injury. Keeping three quarterbacks this year is important for a number of reasons, in addition to the unknown of COVID. By having Brian Hoyer available to run the scout team, Mac Jones will be able to focus on his own game and development once the regular season starts, instead of having to run a different offense every week.

• Running back (6)

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  • Brandon Bolden
  • Damien Harris
  • Sony Michel
  • Rhamondre Stevenson
  • J.J. Taylor
  • James White

  
  J.J. Taylor simply did too much in the Patriots’ first preseason game to be left off the roster. Taylor caught five passes for 31 yards and looked very comfortable in the role. Somebody needs to take Rex Burkhead’s receiving back responsibilities, and Taylor has put himself in position.

• Wide receiver (6)

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  • Nelson Agholor
  • Kendrick Bourne
  • N’Keal Harry
  • Jakobi Meyers
  • Gunner Olszewski
  • Kristian Wilkerson

  
  The Patriots will not cut N’Keal Harry. That has never truly seemed to be an option. However, after his offseason trade request and strong starts from Agholor, Bourne, and Meyers, he was left off the initial roster projection as a trade option.
  
  This time around, the Patriots keep their 2019 first-round pick. What changed? Harry’s performance at the joint practices in Philadelphia this week. Bill Belichick has spoken in the past about how much he values joint practices as an evaluation tool, and Harry did more than enough to offset his quiet performance in the preseason opener.
  
  As for Kristian Wilkerson, his standing on the roster is starting to slip. The initial excitement around him was he would be able to play heavily on special teams right away, and could be a capable depth receiver with the potential to develop into more of a contributor on offense down the road.
  
  Yet over the last week, drops have developed as a serious problem for Wilkerson, and he may be further away as a receiver than he initially looked. He stays on for now, but he doesn’t have much room for error yet.
• Tight end (3)

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  • Devin Asiasi
  • Hunter Henry
  • Jonnu Smith

  
  It was tempting to keep four tight ends, especially with the injuries to Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Plus, Matt LaCosse has certainly done enough to earn a roster spot, assuming he’s healthy. However, keeping 16 players between the three skill positions is too much. Even the current 15 feels excessive, but this is what the summer has dictated so far. If LaCosse comes back strong from the injury he suffered on Monday, he could make a strong run at Wilkerson’s spot next week.

• Offensive line (7)

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  • David Andrews (C)
  • Trent Brown (T)
  • Justin Herron (T)
  • Ted Karras (C/G)
  • Shaq Mason (G)
  • Michael Onwenu (G/T)
  • Isaiah Wynn (T)

  
  Seven offensive linemen would be a thin group for any team, never mind the Patriots who have generally kept up to nine or 10 players at the position under Bill Belichick. However, a number of factors make it more realistic this year.
  
  First, there is tremendous positional versatility within this group between Ted Karras, Michael Onwenu, and even Justin Herron and Trent Brown who can each play both tackle spots. Plus, the ability to call players up from the practice squad before games adds some de facto depth that may not be reflected in the actual roster.
  
  On top of all of that, the reality is nobody has really jumped out to claim any other depth spots at the position. Marcus Martin cooled off after a strong first week and a half, James Ferentz has been inconsistent, and rookie sixth-round pick William Sherman doesn’t look quite ready for NFL play. It’s possible an eighth offensive lineman emerges over the next two weeks, or the Patriots add to the group externally. But right now, this is how things shape up.

• Defensive line (6)

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  • Henry Anderson
  • Christian Barmore
  • Davon Godchaux
  • Lawrence Guy
  • Chase Winovich
  • Deatrich Wise Jr.

  
  
  If there’s going to be a ‘surprise cut’ during training camp this year, it could be Henry Anderson. Anderson played deeper into the preseason opener than expected from a roster lock. He’s also struggled on special teams at times. His contract has $3 million in dead cap, which would make his release unlikely but not impossible.
  
  Just off this list is Carl Davis. Davis may need Henry to be released or another injury up front to ultimately end up on the roster, but he’s certainly played like he’s earned a spot this summer.
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  Ja’Whaun Bentley

• Cornerback (6)

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  • Justin Bethel
  • Myles Bryant
  • Stephon Gilmore
  • J.C. Jackson
  • Jonathan Jones
  • Joejuan Williams

  
  This might be a roster projection first - a player worthy of making the roster ‘changing’ positions (sorry Danny Etling). Justin Bethel wasn’t left off the last roster projection, but listed as a special teamer. Now, he’s at cornerback.
  
  With a lack of depth at the position, the Patriots appear to be preparing for a scenario where they need Bethel to contribute regularly on defense - something he hasn’t done since 2017 with the Arizona Cardinals. Moving him to this list is a better reflection of how the team may view their current depth.

• Safety (4)

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  • Kyle Dugger
  • Devin McCourty
  • Jalen Mills
  • Adrian Phillips

  
  There could probably be another position change here, since Myles Bryant has seen plenty of time at safety this summer. For now though, we’ll hold off. Even with Bryant, the depth here is a little thin, especially if Mills has to play corner like we’ve seen him do through most of camp. Could be another spot where the Patriots look to add internally after roster cuts.
• Special teams (5)

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  • Nick Folk (K)
  • Jake Bailey (P)
  • Joe Cardona (LS)
  • Matthew Slater
  • Cody Davis

  
  Kicker is a position where the Patriots seem to highly value experience. That, combined with the fact that Nick Folk hasn’t yet been cut or put on IR, would seemingly indicate the team still views him as the starter.
  
  However, as the saying goes, ‘you can’t make the club from the tub.’ Folk’s window is running out, and if he’s not healthy by a certain point the team will need to move on. That being said, we could also see a situation where the Patriots cut another player while keeping Folk and Quinn Nordin on the initial 53-man roster, then IR Folk and ideally bring that player back. It’s a technique they’ve used in the past.

• New England Patriots Training Camp

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  Last three on:
  

  • Kristian Wilkerson
  • J.J. Taylor
  • Nick Folk

  Next three on:
  

  • Carl Davis
  • Matt LaCosse
  • Quinn Nordin

MORE: Bill Belichick on the 1’s and 2’s

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Author Alex Barth

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