What happens next between the Patriots and Stephon Gilmore?

Stephon Gilmore’s holdout has officially begun. The 30-year-old corner wasn’t present for the Patriots’ first mandatory minicamp practice on Monday, with Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald reporting his absence is related to a “contract dispute.” On Tuesday morning, Bill Belichick told reporters he doesn’t expect Gilmore to be in attendance for the remainder of the week.

As things currently stand, Gilmore is set to earn $7.5 million this season – making him the 26th highest paid cornerback in football. That number is low because the Patriots moved money up before last season, to prevent a holdout then. Gilmore is also on the last year of his deal, and just a season removed from winning NFL Defensive Player of the Year is looking to land one last big pay day in the NFL.

Gilmore is a tremendous talent, and having him on the field changes the complexion of the Patriots’ defense. But even if the Patriots did feel it was time to move on, they don’t have many options to replace him. The team is already thin at the outside cornerback position following the departure of Jason McCourty in free agency. They simply can’t afford to not have the value Gilmore brings to the team.

Further complicating things is the lack of context for what a new potential deal for Gilmore would look like. It’s not uncommon for teams and players to work on new contracts based on similar situations elsewhere in the league. However, there’s really no comp right now for Gilmore, who turns 31 in September. There were only 10 cornerbacks in the NFL last year over the age of 30, and none are playing at the level Gilmore has for the past two years. 

While there’s no official timeline for a holdout, it’s in the Patriots’ best interest to get this situation resolves as quickly as possible. Getting Gilmore back in the building would allow the defense to work as a whole as training camp begins, and if there is no deal, it would be beneficial for the team to have more time to adjust and adapt.

Of course, that’s all easier said than done, and what ‘resolved’ means in this context isn’t exactly clear. The team has three paths of action moving forward – pay Gilmore, trade him, or allow him to hold out indefinitely. Here’s a quick overview of what each outcome would look like.

• Paying Gilmore

  Share

  There’s really two options within the one of paying Gilmore. The two sides could work out a short-term solution, or get Gilmore that last big contract he’s looking for.
  
  The short-term option could be as simple as restructuring the remaining year on Gilmore’s current contract, or adding one or two more onto the end. If that’s the direction this heads, the Patriots would probably need to double Gilmore’s yearly money.
  
  If the Patriots are comfortable tying themselves to Gilmore long-term, despite the recent league-wide lack of success at the position beyond the age of 31, it likely won’t cost them as much yearly. It may not be a bad investment - Gilmore has been more than ‘just another player’ during his time in New England, and he wouldn't be the first member of the Patriots to be an outlier when it comes to the average aging process. This could be an effective way to retain him without losing a significant amount of cap space.
  
  While there aren’t many comparisons for Gilmore’s situation, the closest for a short-term deal would be Darius Slay - who is a No. 1 cornerback but not quite in Gilmore’s tier. Last season, at 29-years-old, Slay agreed to a three-year, $50 million extension with the Philadelphia Eagles, with $30 million guaranteed. A similar deal, which includes a restructured 2021 as the first year, may be the best option for both sides.

• Trading Gilmore

  Share

  If the two sides can’t reach an agreement, there’s a chance the Patriots could look to trade Gilmore. They’ve reportedly tried to move him before, so this isn’t totally unprecedented.
  
  Like a new contract, what a Gilmore trade would look like is also hard to picture. Again, there’s two possibilities here. The Patriots could move Gilmore for a draft pick, or find a player-for-player swap.
  
  Trading Gilmore for a draft pick is the easier of the two options. Given Gilmore’s new team would need to give him a new contract, the Julio Jones deal can be used as context here, with Gilmore likely providing a slightly more valuable return. A first-round pick may be a stretch, unless a team is willing to get overly aggressive or is truly desperate/suffers an injury during training camp.
  
  Can the Patriots afford to lose Gilmore’s value on the field for a whole year, before they can cash in on that pick? If not, there’s the possibility of a player-for-player trade. While they may not be able to get another cornerback, they could look to add a player or players who can make an immediate impact elsewhere, improving the team immediately. Such a trade in this sort of scenario is rare in the NFL, and more commonly seen in baseball.

• Letting Gilmore hold out

  Share

  Gilmore holding out indefinitely should be the worst-case scenario for both sides. The Patriots lose out on a tremendous player, while Gilmore could face significant fines for not showing up to mandatory practices, and doesn’t get to reset his value in a contract year after a torn quad ended his 2020 campaign a few weeks early.
  
  This isn’t to say the situation needs to be resolved immediately. Gilmore missing all of minicamp seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. With a month and a half between now and training camp, there’s time for both sides to come together. If nothing has changed by that point, and Gilmore is still holding out into August, then it may be time to worry.

MORE: Patriots Minicamp Day 1 observations

Click here for 98.5 The Sports Hub’s complete coverage of the Patriots.

Alex Barth is a writer and digital producer for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Looking for a podcast guest? Let him know on Twitter @RealAlexBarth or via email at abarth@985TheSportsHub.com.