As the first round of the NFL Draft gets closer, speculation continues to rise regarding the Patriots’ intentions at the quarterback position. There’s more and more smoke hinting towards a trade up into the top 10, while at the same time others continue to point out ‘value’ options on Day 2.

What will the Patriots end up doing? Generally in these kinds of situations, past decisions and precedent are a window into the thought process. Everybody has tendencies, and those tendencies are bound to be exposed over 20 years. This specific situation is different though. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots haven’t really been in this spot. There’s not a ton of historical context to go on.

However, there’s one pattern that has managed to emerge of late regarding Belichick and quarterbacks. Since 2011, the Patriots have drafted five QBs. Of those five, three are from SEC schools – Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham (2019), LSU’s Danny Etling (2018), and Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett (2011). Additionally, Jacoby Brissett (2016) was drafted from ACC school North Carolina State, but originally played two years at Florida before transferring.

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  This SEC fixation is a relatively recent trend. From 2000-2010, only one of the six quarterbacks drafted by the Patriots was from an SEC school (LSU’s Rohan Davey, 2002).
  
  So where does this tendency come from? Is it just a simple coincidence? Or is there a reasoning behind the team narrowing in on the SEC?
  
  Some of it may be by default. The talent has to end up somewhere, and SEC schools have recruited quarterbacks better than any other conference. Between 2007 and 2017, 28 of the 80 quarterbacks ranked in the top 100 by ESPN chose SEC schools. By comparison, the PAC-12 has the second most with 17. During the window Belichick has been drafting SEC-heavy at QB, the conference has had most of the talent at the position.
  
  Of course, the SEC’s recruiting prowess isn’t limited to just quarterbacks. It’s been considered the best conference in college football for most of its existence, especially when it comes to defense. That may be yet another reason why Belichick likes SEC passers - experience.
  

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  Dating back to the beginning of his time in New England, Belichick has shown a preference for quarterbacks who were multi-year starters in college, and have plenty of game reps under their belts. The SEC ties could suggest that over the last 10 years he’s started to take the quality of the reps, not just quantity, into account.
  
  Facing SEC teams week in and week out is the best practice a quarterback can get for NFL defenses. Last season, 20.5 percent of NFL players came from SEC schools. By comparison, the Big 10 came in second accounting for just 15 percent of the player pool, while the ACC was third with 12.2 percent. In addition, three of the top four and four of the top 10 schools in terms of pro talent produced were from the SEC. Simply put, there’s more NFL players on an SEC schedule than any other.

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  There’s one other tie Belichick has to the SEC - Nick Saban. Belichick’s first SEC pick, Rohan Davey, actually played for Saban at LSU in the early 2000’s. When Saban left Baton Rouge, there was a pause in the Patriots drafting SEC quarterbacks. However, Saban returned to the conference in 2009, and two years later Belichick started drafting SEC quarterbacks almost every other year.
  
  Again, this could just be a coincidence. But we know Belichick and Saban like to talk football. Could Saban be a de facto quarterback scout for the Patriots, filling Belichick in on what he needs to know about the arms in the SEC? The players’ own coaches are always a part of the draft process, but the perspective of an opponent, somebody who prepared to face that player, could also be valuable.
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  Another pattern shows up through Belichick’s recent history of drafting quarterbacks. In the same window listed above, all four quarterbacks named transferred at some point in their college careers, with Stidham starting at Baylor, Etling at Purdue, and Mallett at Michigan. Prior to taking Mallett in 2011, the Patriots had never drafted a transfer quarterback under Belichick.
  
  That focus on experience could also be why the Patriots have gone in this direction. When quarterbacks transfer they have to quickly learn new systems, new playbooks, and build chemistry with new teammates and coaches.
  
  It makes sense that a quarterback who not only has experience learning a new system, but one that has experience in multiple systems - something incredibly rare at the college level - would be valued by Belichick’s Patriots.

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  So how do the quarterbacks of the class of 2021 fit into the pattern? Of the 15 QBs in the draft, four represent SEC schools, while six transferred at some point during their college careers.
  
  Alabama’s Mac Jones is the only one of the top-five quarterbacks representing an SEC school, but Florida’s Kyle Trask and Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond are popular names in the second-tier. The Patriots have been tied to each of these three at various times in the pre-draft process.
  
  Mond in particular presents an interesting case. He started as a freshman, but saw the program undergo a coaching change after that season. Much like a transfer, he ultimately ended up playing in two systems in college, although all at one school.

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  As for the transfers, three never attended an SEC school at any point. Brady White went from Arizona State to Memphis, Shane Buechele from Texas to SMU, and Peyton Ramsey from Indiana to Northwestern. The Patriots haven’t been notably linked to any of the three this winter.
  
  Then there’s three transfers who have ties to the SEC. Jamie Newman left Wake Forest for Georgia before the 2020 season, but opted out due to COVID and never played a down for the Bulldogs. He met with the Patriots at the Senior Bowl. There’s also Feleipe Franks, who left Florida for Arkansas after an injury led to him losing his job to Kyle Trask.
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  The highlight of this group though is Justin Fields. Fields was the top ranked recruit in the country in 2018, and started his career at Georgia. However, he left for Ohio State when the Bulldogs (questionably) decided to stick with Jake Fromm, and had an incredibly successful two seasons with the Buckeyes.
  
  Following these patterns, Fields appears to be the whole package for the Patriots. A former SEC arm who has played in two vastly different systems, he ideally should bring at least the base level of experience they’re looking for in a rookie quarterback. Plus, the Saban angle actually comes back here as well, with Alabama having game planned for Ohio State in last year’s National Championship game.
  
  With increasing speculation linking the Patriots and Fields over the last few days, it’s worth taking a closer look at the potential pairing. Based on recent history, his background and career arc line up perfectly with Belichick’s past selections at the position.

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  Does this guarantee the Patriots will take Fields (or any of the players listed above) in the 2021 NFL Draft? Hardly. After all the lone exception to the rule since 2011 also happens to be their most notable pick, with Jimmy Garoppolo spending his entire collegiate career at FCS Eastern Illinois.
  
  What we do know is that there are a number of quarterbacks who fit the Patriots’ prototype in this draft. The discussion of ‘types of quarterbacks’ often concerns just play style, but it can go beyond that to mental makeup, game experience, leadership style, and more.
  
  As the Patriots enter the post-Tom Brady era, organizational, cultural, and personal fit may be more important than schematic fit. If that’s the case, they’ll have options.

MORE: Full coverage at the Patriots Draft Hub 

Click here for 98.5 The Sports Hub’s complete coverage of the Patriots.

Alex Barth is a writer and digital producer for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Looking for a podcast guest? Let him know on Twitter @RealAlexBarth or via email at abarth@985TheSportsHub.com.

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