Mazz: On Jarren Duran and why you should – and should not – believe the hype

Author Tony Massarotti

March 3rd, 2021 11:23 AM

If you’re excited about the prospect of someone like Jarren Duran, you should be. But at the same time, ask yourself this: are you excited because you really like Duran or because, with the current state of the Red Sox, you need something to be excited about this spring?

In case you missed it, Duran was one of four Red Sox players to homer yesterday in the team’s 9-3 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. Of course, all four homers came against the same pitcher – David Hess – over the span of just 1.1 innings, which suggests that Hess was pumping out meatballs as if he were Mamma Leone.

That said, here’s what Duran’s homer looked like:

Here are a few observations/thoughts on Duran – good and bad – that are probably worth noting:

• First, Duran is bigger than I thought.

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  I looked it up and he’s 6-foot-2, 212 pounds, which surprised me a little. Obviously, Duran has played during other springs, but I probably wasn’t giving him the attention I should have for a lot of reasons. He’s built more like Jacoby Ellsbury than he is Andrew Benintendi, which bears mentioning, because …

• That swing in the above video.

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  Pretty good, right? But that’s not the swing of some judy hitter with eight career home runs in 880 career minor league plate appearances. The Red Sox believe Duran can hit for more power, which is fine. But between his stance and that leg kick, well … it was noticeable, that’s all.

• The Red Sox obviously have high hopes for Duran.

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  His name has been mentioned a lot over the last year or so. And the more I think about it, this had to factor into their decision to trade Andrew Benintendi. Between Duran, Alex Verdugo and Benintendi, the Sox had three left-handed-hitting outfielders under the age of 27. None are real power hitters, which, again, is fine. But having all three in your outfield feels too repetitive.
• I wouldn’t expect to see Duran in the big leagues anytime soon – for a couple of reasons.

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  First, thanks to Covid, he has played only 82 games at Double-A. (More on this shortly.) Second, the Red Sox are likely to keep him in the minors so as to delay the clock on arbitration and free agency, meaning they can keep him for more than six seasons in the event they cannot re-sign him. Should the Red Sox generally be doing this? No. But they’re not winning the World Series this year with or without Duran, so the long-term should take precedent right now.

• Finally, before we all get too geeked up about Duran, let’s remember something…

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  In 320 career at-bats at Double-A, he has batted .250 with a .634 OPS and 82 strikeouts in 320 at-bats. If he’s the same kind of player in the big leagues, that’s not good enough. This is undoubtedly why the Sox want him to hit for more power – because they know he probably needs to raise his OPS by at least 100 points if he wants to project as a big-league regular. This suggests to me that the club has concerns about his ability to hit for a high enough average without driving the ball. Duran can obviously run, but again, ask yourself a question: with the way the game is played now, who runs anymore?

• One last thing…

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  The Red Sox have told us that Duran improved considerably last year during workouts. He was the MVP of the Caribbean World Series while playing for Puerto Rico, which is nothing more than a nice piece of hype. (Steve Pearce was the MVP of the 2018 World Series.) The Red Sox obviously used last year to give Duran something of a makeover, and we need to see how that translates to real competition before we can get any real sense of whether he can help the Red Sox in the longer term.

MORE: Alex Verdugo and Bobby Dalbec are opposites – and that’s a good thing

You can hear Tony Massarotti weekdays from 2-6 p.m. EST on the Felger & Massarotti program. Follow him on Twitter @TonyMassarotti.

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Author Tony Massarotti

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Alex Verdugo,andrew benintendi,arbitration,free agency,hype,Jarren Duran,power,project,red sox,speed,Trade