Patriots trade up for a QB in Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft

Despite reports that the Patriots hope to have their quarterback situation figured out by the time free agency begins next month, mock drafts continue to link them to a number of quarterbacks in the first round. The latest mock drafter to do so is ESPN’s Mel Kiper, who has them moving up for a signal caller.

Kiper predicts the Patriots will move up to the ninth spot, in order to take North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. According to Kiper, such a move would cost the Patriots “at least the No. 15 pick, a second-round pick [46th overall] and a 2022 pick. And I wouldn’t be shocked if it took the Pats’ 2022 first-rounder to get the deal over the finish line.”

As for the selection of Lance himself, Kiper writes,

“Belichick and the Patriots have been quiet this offseason, but that should change soon. They have money to spend in free agency, and they need to find a quarterback. It doesn’t appear likely that Cam Newton will return. The veteran QB trade market has dwindled. I could see a Jimmy Garoppolo return to New England, but I’m not sold that he’d be the long-term answer. Lance could be. He started only 17 career games in college — all against FCS competition — but he’s only 20, and he has all the tools to be a great dual-threat quarterback. Remember that the Patriots have a few players returning after opting out of last season, too, so they could contend in the AFC East again.”

While nothing he says there seems incorrect, Lance’s playing time (or lack thereof) stands out. In past years, the Patriots have put a premium on in-game experience and have favored multi-year starters, especially at the quarterback position. The last seven quarterbacks drafted by the Patriots all started for at least two seasons in college. Their last QB draft pick to not fit that description was Matt Cassel in 2005, who actually never started a college game at quarterback.

Kiper’s selections leading up to the ninth pick are also a bit extreme. He has Trevor Lawrence going first overall (fine), with the Atlanta Falcons then trading up from four to two to grab Zach Wilson. The next four picks all happen in order, without any trades or quarterbacks. San Francisco then trades up from 12 to seven to take Justin Fields, with Carolina then taking Mac Jones at eight, one pick before the Patriots grab Lance.

With such a hyped quarterback class, it feels unlikely that no team would trade into the top five for a quarterback. On top of that, Lance is a much better fit for Matt Rhule’s offense in Carolina, and it’s hard to see them choosing Jones over him if both options are on the table.

Still, if things did play out this way it would likely be seen as the Patriots coming away with a steal. While Lance is certainly raw, he has tremendous upside and fits the mold of a modern quarterback who can make plays all over the field, not just in the pocket.

MORE: Barth’s Patriots Mock Draft 1.0

• Round 1 Pick 15: Trade

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  This trade makes sense for the Patriots because quality will be as important as quantity in this year’s draft. Yes, they move down 10 spots in the first round, but go up 49 spots from the third to second round, and 40 spots from the sixth to the fourth round. On top of that, there is absolutely no chance Bill Belichick keeps the Tom Brady comp pick, which is the third-rounder used here. He won’t allow Brady’s departure to be tied to one single player. If you thought the Jimmy Garoppolo trade tree was wild, just wait.

• Round 1 Pick 25: QB Mac Jones, Alabama

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  Will the Patriots give Mac Jones the thumbs up on draft night? The Alabama signal caller is a high floor option who can facilitate an offense - assuming they use their bounty of cap space to vastly improve the talent around him.

• Round 2 Pick 46: LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina

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  The Patriots seem to have an affinity for players who changed positions during their college career (Jakobi Meyers, J.C. Jackson). Chazz Surratt is a quarterback-turned-linebacker who could fill Dont'a Hightower's role one day if they coach him up right.
• Round 2 Pick 47: Trade

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  Once again, the Patriots move down to move up. By dropping five spots in the second round, they turn the second-to-last pick in this year’s fourth round into what should be an early-to-middle fourth round pick in 2022. That also recoups the future pick they gave up in the Jacksonville trade.

• Round 2 Pick 52: DL Marvin Wilson, Florida State

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  The Patriots have a solid history with big yet athletic defensive linemen from ACC Florida schools, and Marvin Wilson fits that description. He moves surprisingly well given his 6-foot-3, 319 pound frame, which allows him to be effective in both 3-4 and 4-3 fronts. If he can learn to use his feet as effectively as he uses his hands, he can be a three-down problem for opposing offenses.

• Round 3 Pick 74: Trade

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  Bill Belichick rarely lets major gaps pass without making a pick. 52 to 106 is too much of a break, so the Patriots use a future asset to jump back into the third round, and pick up a bonus top-100 pick.
• Round 3 Pick 74: WR Jaelon Darden, North Texas

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  Jaelon Darden does most of his damage with yards after the catch, once telling a TV crew, “Making someone miss is like waking up in the morning and brushing my teeth…I gotta do it every day,” and “slow feet don’t eat.” He matches his twitch and elite footwork with explosiveness out of his cuts, which results in plays where he weaves his way between defenders as he gets downfield. The Patriots need a receiver who can do damage with the ball in his hands, wherever he has it on the field.

• Round 4 Pick 106: T James Hudson, Cincinnati

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  James Hudson was originally recruited to Michigan as a defensive lineman, but switched to offense after transferring to Cincinnati. He's still raw when it comes to technique, but has a ton of physical upside. The Patriots have a history of turning those kinds of project linemen into starting-caliber players.

• Round 4 Pick 139: S Richard LeCounte III, Georgia

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  A consensus first-round pick this time last year, a dirt bike accident in October has teams thinking twice about Richard LeCounte. While the details of the incident aren't public, teams will do their digging. Any who are willing to look past it will get a highly intelligent safety and strong leader on and off the field.
• Round 5 Pick 160: EDGE Elerson Smith, Northern Iowa

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  The Patriots hit on a non-FBS pick last year when they took Kyle Dugger. Could they do it again with Elerson Smith? The Northern Iowa pass rusher is starting to build his frame for the NFL, and showed at the Senior Bowl that he can keep up with top-level talent.

• Round 6 Pick 201: TE Tre’ McKitty, Georgia/Florida State

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  Tre' McKitty doesn't do any one thing great, but he's good at everything, especially after refining his blocking ability last year at Georgia. He'd probably be a higher pick in a weaker tight end class (see: 2020), so this could be a chance for the Patriots to take advantage and grab a solid player with some value.

• For the full Patriots Mock Draft 1.0, click below.

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  For a full breakdown of any of the players listed above, click here.

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Alex Barth is a writer and digital producer for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Looking for a podcast guest? Let him know on Twitter @RealAlexBarth or via email at abarth@985TheSportsHub.com.