By Alex Barth, 985TheSportsHub.com
Joe Burrow might not be bound for Bengals stripes after all, at least not if the Miami Dolphins have anything to say about it.
The Miami Herald reported on Tuesday that the Dolphins “will make an attempt to trade” for the top overall pick in Aprils draft with the attention of landing the LSU superstar.
In order to move up, the Dolphins would have to pay a steep price. The number one overall pick has been moved just once in the last 10 years, when the Titans sent it to the Rams in 2016. That deal cost Los Angeles a first (15th), two seconds (43rd & 45th), and a forth (76th) in that years draft, as well as a first and third the following year.
How would a Dolphins offer compare? They hold a higher first-round pick (5th) than the Rams did, but Joe Burrow seems like much more of a sure thing than Jared Goff did in 2016.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 29: Jared Goff #16 of the Los Angeles Rams passes the ball during the first half of a game against the Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on December 29, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Did the trade work out? The Rams came away with Goff, who has since led them to a Super Bowl. Meanwhile the Titans, who had drafted Marcus Mariota the year before, added the likes of Jack Conklin, Corey Davis, and at 45th overall, Derrick Henry.
While the Dolphins, with a league high 14 picks including three in the first round, could easily hand over the capital, would such a move make sense for the Bengals. In these situations, the teams trading down tend to get the short end of the stick.
Take, for example, the second pick of the 2016 draft. The Cleveland Browns held the selection and were coming off a 3-13 season. They had just released former first-round pick Johny Manziel, and had no long-term plan at quarterback. Instead of taking Carson Wentz second overall, they moved down in a trade with the Eagles. That brought in a first, third, and fourth round picks, as well as a future first and future second.
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – DECEMBER 29: Carson Wentz #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles calls a play against the New York Giants during the first quarter in the game at MetLife Stadium on December 29, 2019 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
The Browns traded down a few more times with those picks, and ended up netting 12 players from the deal. Instead of Wentz, who has proven to be a franchise quarterback and was a knee injury away from an MVP season in 2017, the Browns ended up with:
- Corey Coleman
- Cody Kessler
- Derrick Kindred
- Shon Coleman
- DeShone Kizer
- Ricardo Louis
- Jordan Payton
- Jabril Peppers
- Denzel Ward
- Chad Thomas
- Antonio Callaway
In addition, they ended up trading down with future first-round pick they received in 2017. That pick was sent to the Houston Texans, who used it on Deshaun Watson.
While it is true trading down gives a team more picks, and therefore more chances to hit on a good player, there’s something to be said for picking towards the top and having your choice of talent.
BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA – OCTOBER 26: Joe Burrow #9 of the LSU Tigers runs into the endzone for a touchdown against the Auburn Tigers during the second half at Tiger Stadium on October 26, 2019 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
This is also something Patriots fans should keep an eye on for next year, even beyond the fact that such a trade would put Burrow in the Pats division.
If the team ends up towards the top of the draft, it likely means that Jarrett Stidham wasn’t the guy and they need a quarterback. However, Bill Belichick loves to trade down and accumulate value. A trade between the Bengals and Dolphins this year could be used a precedent to set the value for top picks in 2021.
Alex Barth is a writer and digital producer for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Hate mail? Let him hear it on Twitter @RealAlexBarth or via email at Alexander.Barth@bbgi.com.